TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Did you see the omega cross-section powderfreak posted? It was pretty intense. Yeah, I just don't know much about NW VT and BTV is pretty much useless at helping me decide. It would be nice if they would say anything or something about Friday... 2-4" of upslope? Thats not impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 bolton gets smoked on alot of upslope events. just smoked. i'm gonna be there fri evening for nite skiing in a foot of pow. if a global like GFS shows .10-.25 precip in N greens in upslope event it usually equals 6-10 inches of powder. (if the global shows .25-.50) you can count on over a foot of powder on upslope favored areas. bc the globals underestimate the qpf in these meso scale upscale events....from reading posts from j. spin and powder freak. when powder freak is geeked up about upslope that usually means a foot or more IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 48hr euro looks like 0c 850 line runs from KFIT to like RT 2 corridor. is this sinking back down south at this time or does the 0c 850 line not making progress past N oRH county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 http://www.ssd.noaa....l/flash-wv.html take a look at that low offshore tracking toward greenland instead of ireland.....signs of NAO block . winter for interior locations thursday. paraphrasing tim kelly necn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 NAM.. Not so good. For New England specifically. Much more significant for the dacks again and colder out there. Areas like southern maine and se NH are warmer and see less sig accums. I think this one would be uglier for much of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 vortmax went from central southern virginia to dc in one run. Faster with the vortmax also with its progression over SNE. Southerly winds @ 5h to quebec lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 259 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012 NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-112100- /O.NEW.KBTV.WW.Y.0001.120112T0900Z-120113T0000Z/ NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON- SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON- WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE- WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE- CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND- WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON- EASTERN RUTLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH... STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA... LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM... GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT... ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY... MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH... RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS... RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD... KILLINGTON 259 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...ALONG WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT AND PARTS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. * TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREADS NORTH INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE REST OF VERMONT BY MID MORNING THURSDAY...BEFORE ENDING AS A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED DURING THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE. * WINDS...EAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND EXPOSED HIGHER TERRAIN. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S. * VISIBILITIES...BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 BTV map really doesn't make any sense when you look at their advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 God this is going to mix well up into the north country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 SREFs are still pretty bad and the 06zNAM is ugly as well. Euro looks like the coldest of guidance now. Argues for about 1.5" or so for Kevin. Maybe inch r two for Ray and maybe 2.5" for Will, but it's close to flooding the mid levels with warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 If the EC blows this one, I'll really be bummed. It so, we really will have lost our 'iron clad' ruler. NAM is ugly. I really can't say anytihing regarding the whole CAD scenarios. In other words, I can't say diddly about ice. That said, the 06 GFS looks to be a toaster run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Hopefully it's more white than ice or liquid for you guys to the south. All guidance is pretty much all snow pre-dryslot up here still. Even the 6z NAM. The GFS is a little paltry, but the EC/ECens are generally a solid 0.75"ish. I still like 4-7"/5-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 As I said on the Upstate side where they have been lamenting not getting "feet" of LES.. Anyone who gets snow just has to be grateful. This year getting an inch is like a foot in the past. Just to have white covering my barren brown fields (albeit a mixed mess) is an improvement. It's better than all rain and 45.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'll take the d9 snowstorm on the euro please. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Watches converted to advisories most of the region--right call as no one criteria would be met. Meanwhile, the nice combo of conditions canceling school and light enough accumulations where shoveling may not be necessary (3" threshold here).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Hopefully it's more white than ice or liquid for you guys to the south. All guidance is pretty much all snow pre-dryslot up here still. Even the 6z NAM. The GFS is a little paltry, but the EC/ECens are generally a solid 0.75"ish. I still like 4-7"/5-8". I wouldn't be shocked if you mix before the dryslot. Hopefully it's mostly snow..looks to be. Euro seemed like it may try to mix you at 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 At least it's something to track. 26 here now.... Watches converted to advisories most of the region--right call as no one criteria would be met. Meanwhile, the nice combo of conditions canceling school and light enough accumulations where shoveling may not be necessary (3" threshold here).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 What doe the Euro do with the upper low and associated precip on Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 What doe the Euro do with the upper low and associated precip on Friday? Not much for SNE. It's more nrn NY and VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Not much for SNE. It's more nrn NY and VT. It just so happens that's where I'll be Friday. What a happy coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'm afraid that band with the U.L. could start as rain showers here, but hopefully a rapid transition to an period of snow as it rolls through. If I get 2 inches that's a success probably. The best seems west of me now. I wouldn't be shocked if you mix before the dryslot. Hopefully it's mostly snow..looks to be. Euro seemed like it may try to mix you at 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I wouldn't be shocked if you mix before the dryslot. Hopefully it's mostly snow..looks to be. Euro seemed like it may try to mix you at 21z. It wouldn't shock me either, but I thought the Euro looked cold during the main thump through 00z. WU has -4C 850s here at 21z. Are you talking above that level?H8 does get near 0C on the NAM toward 18z, but it's pretty much done by 21z. A thin layer of 0-0.5C toward the end before the dryslot doesn't extremely concern me at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Watches converted to advisories most of the region--right call as no one criteria would be met. Meanwhile, the nice combo of conditions canceling school and light enough accumulations where shoveling may not be necessary (3" threshold here).. Looks like we'll do ok. Good start. More to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 From HPC--a little different than the BOX forecast map, but still meh for the Bay state south. But, any snow is better than no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Looks like we'll do ok. Good start. More to follow. When do you leave? The next week to 10 days could be fun especially for GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It wouldn't shock me either, but I thought the Euro looked cold during the main thump through 00z. WU has -4C 850s here at 21z. Are you talking above that level? H8 does get near 0C on the NAM toward 18z, but it's pretty much done by 21z. A thin layer of 0-0.5C toward the end before the dryslot doesn't extremely concern me at this point. Yeah it looks like around 800mb is where the trouble is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I believe this is unchanged from yesterday. I'd shift the heaviest axis about 43 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It wouldn't shock me either, but I thought the Euro looked cold during the main thump through 00z. WU has -4C 850s here at 21z. Are you talking above that level? H8 does get near 0C on the NAM toward 18z, but it's pretty much done by 21z. A thin layer of 0-0.5C toward the end before the dryslot doesn't extremely concern me at this point. Yeah you'll have most of that stuff out of the way by 21-22z anwyays I think, but don't be shocked if you mix with IP an hour or two earlier than you think. Root for the euro, because it has a nice little bend in the thickness field to the sw...indicating your CAD even just above 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 When do you leave? The next week to 10 days could be fun especially for GC. 1/27, I hope we get some fun in here before then. I'll stuff my pockets with snow for the return trip (if I return). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I've noticed looking at the Euro maps that it's really trying to get precise lately with localized areas of CAD even at 850. I guess owing to the grid of model....I mean moreso than I see on the NCEP maps. Yeah you'll have most of that stuff out of the way by 21-22z anwyays I think, but don't be shocked if you mix with IP an hour or two earlier than you think. Root for the euro, because it has a nice little bend in the thickness field to the sw...indicating your CAD even just above 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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