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OKpowdah

Next week's storm, Changes, Snow threats beyond (Part 2)

1,125 posts in this topic

18z GFS is damn cold for Thursday storm.

Yeah, then it spins up that second area of precip on the backside like the EURO did yesterday that could bring snows to western SNE up into CNE/NNE. Looks like GC would get a couple inches in that.

Nice upslope period for 6-12 hours following all of that on Friday afternoon/evening.

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Yeah, Burke doesn't make alot of snow, they rely on mother nature HEAVILY. Thats why the mood is 'so,so' thus far. 16 trails open out of 50 thus far.

One of my favorite places. Just great country up there. February trip in the works. I figure by then they will be more than half open even if the pattern is still a disaster.

BOX seems less than convinced about anything super exciting late week.

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One of my favorite places. Just great country up there. February trip in the works. I figure by then they will be more than half open even if the pattern is still a disaster.

BOX seems less than convinced about anything super exciting late week.

Skiing 3 times a week now there. 10 minutes from LSC. Its a nice escape.

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What is a non-gradient pattern though? Isn't there always a gradient somewhere? Everyone has been talking about gradient pattern since October but isn't every pattern technically gradient? It just depends on where it sets up. Someone gets snow and south of there gets mix or rain, way north stays cold and dry. There's always a gradient where ever the jet is located, no?

haha yeah there's always a gradient present, but "gradient pattern" refers to one in which the gradient is enhanced with straight fast flow aloft. So the converse could be an amplifed wave pattern and/or with "baggier" heights.

Related: I remember Tip often referring to the heights and winds over the Southeast in analyzing the capacity for a trough to dig and amplify into the eastern U.S.

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Have said this a few times, good pattern for western lakes, upper MS valley. Blows for us mostly.

The pattern change talk is mass hysteria.

Pattern shift back to warm fail on the 18z GFS :(

post-1511-0-27951400-1326062693.gif

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Pattern shift back to warm fail on the 18z GFS :(

post-1511-0-27951400-1326062693.gif

You'll be admonished for posting this but it's significant if it continues to creep down into the mid 200s as a flat crap pattern. Lots of hints IMO we need to make hay in the next 10 days.

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Pattern shift back to warm fail on the 18z GFS :(

post-1511-0-27951400-1326062693.gif

You'll be admonished for posting this but it's significant if it continues to creep down into the mid 200s as a flat crap pattern. Lots of hints IMO we need to make hay in the next 10 days.

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You'll be admonished for posting this but it's significant if it continues to creep down into the mid 200s as a flat crap pattern. Lots of hints IMO we need to make hay in the next 10 days.

that pattern wasn't warm...and there's a snowstorm a few days later...

gfs_namer_324_10m_wnd_precip.gif

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You'll be admonished for posting this but it's significant if it continues to creep down into the mid 200s as a flat crap pattern. Lots of hints IMO we need to make hay in the next 10 days.

TBH this was the first time I have looked at anything on the GFS outside of the 4 panels to 180 hr time frame on e-wall since i don't look at op runs that far out. It was just a little joke - maybe I should have posted the snow storm from the 300s...

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I've been wondering ...

It is not beyond the realm of possibilities that whatever comes off the Pac in another 24 hours turns out to be a pig. This 18z run is damn amped, and if a pig comes in, it will damp this pos southern stream gnat in lieu of its own prominence, and probably go nuts on the EC as a purer N stream thing.

It may be the remoter of possibilities but not 0 just the same.

The important teleconnector there is that Kevin and Ray are currently swapping weenies -

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GFS decent there, but tough to tell when they aren't the same runs.

It points out what a few of us have been discussing and that is the apparent emergent property of the ECMWF sucking ass this winter ;)

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It points out what a few of us have been discussing and that is the apparent emergent property of the ECMWF sucking ass this winter ;)

There have been plenty of times that the GFS sucked it..including this week coming up. Where's my Miller A?

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the gfs map is actually pretty good for a 7 day forecast imo.

Totally agree. It's really very good for that time range and overall it's been very good in that range...again in general. It has the general idea on features right with placement and strength TBD, but IMO it's been better than people are saying here.

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There have been plenty of times that the GFS sucked it..including this week coming up. Where's my Miller A?

Okay, okay ...I'll give you that, but ... comparatively, the Euro has been sucking ass with tongue.

It's just my opinion, but I have seen it be embarrassed by the GFS more times than the other way around this season. Not sure why - I think there was an upgrade last summer?

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LOL true, I think OSU and I were both proving how ridiculous the first post by him was with the cutter from the 12z run in the 200s. I guess I shouldn't have brought it back up since the point was made by will and others, but he kept defending a ridiculous position imo.

:axe: at these 240+ hour op GFS posts.

i was trying to prove a point.

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all op models suck at 7 days but the ec sucks less...that's just the way it is.

It's really crapped the bed a couple of time with the lows on 12/27 and even 12/31 in 96 hrs or less.

Either way, models at day 7 will suck as you said. I only really care what they have 5 days or less.

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Fascinating to read this thread. Study in psychology really.

The mets point out all the possibilities good and bad. Then the rest post their ideas and it goes directly with what appears to be their outlook vis a vis optimistic or pessimistic. The optimists see big winter pattern coming in. The pessimists see nothing but failed chances. The funny thing is objectivey you can make a case for either scenario. Once we get into the effects of the new Pacific regime we'll find out whether this winter can produce or not. But making definitive statements about a great pattern or not are guesses at this point. I think we'll know about a week into it. I personally do not know what to expect but at least there will be some chances.

The same stuff happens when we switch from a favorable to an unfavorable pattern as happened last February. In the end, the pattern coming could be epic or it could be a fart. We'll know soon enough.

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LOL true, I think OSU and I were both proving how ridiculous the first post by him was with the cutter from the 12z run in the 200s. I guess I shouldn't have brought it back up since the point was made by will and others, but he kept defending a ridiculous position imo.

Your reading comprehension FTL.

What are all the long term "change is coming forecasts" based on? Presumably forecast conditions BY THE MODELS down the road right? Teleconnections that are the result of forecast conditions, pattern recognition again all based on forecasts given by the models in one shape or form. But to me anyway it seems that people are ignoring what has been a persistent bias in the models to overdo the cold and the persistence of the cold.

So far everyone that has called for colder and snowier weather on the horizon has been wrong since 11/1/11. Each time there have been a myraid of reasons why things would turn colder, why we should use the ensembles that were showing brutal cold shots with lots of overruning opportunities etc etc etc. Those all failed miserably.

It's almost 1/9 and there really hasn't even been a threat to track in SNE since pre-Christmas.

The entire point of that posting was to show the volatility and futility in worrying about D7+ and once again basing colder and snowier forecasts on the output.

I'll take persistence, and to me the apperance that all the signs are there that beyond the extended cold shot we revert to a warmer pattern. Warmer but more unstable with more storm chances.

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