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Sunday - January 8, 2012 - What storm Discussion


Baroclinic Zone

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00z GFS does give some light snow from the northern stream trough...but nothing major. Maybe an inch..two if lucky. This threat is something I probably won't take seriously for another 24 hours if its still there on guidance....Euro ensembles liked it at 12z, so its probably worth keeping an eye on.

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It wouldn't surprise me either way. Firstly, the Euro has been demonstrating an over amplified bias at D5 a lot this season so far. Secondly, it's tough to compare the operational Euro against the GEFs mean - granted - but the GEFs teleconnector spread offer only vague support all along.

There's probably a narrow thread needle potential in there, we'll have to wait and see.

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It's not even like general SE or NW shifting, the GFS has produced some wildly different solutions with no "trend"

Let's see what the Euro gives us...

The euro will cave to the Gfs like usual. When euro has storm and Gfs dosent..Gfs always wins

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Why is there a thread for this storm?

Well hey, the posts have to go somewhere.

But yeah, I think the titles should be more along the lines of:

"Strung-out-shortwave-energy-that-one-model-consolidates-into-a-storm-within-a-marginal-airmass ...Discussion"

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Euro almost pulls off a clipper turned Miller B next Tuesday...but not quite...a little too late. But really close. Our hope is that one these "threats" actually turns into something. The true change in the regime though probably happens post-Jan 15. But we do have a couple outside shots before that.

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It's pretty obvious no system is ever going to phase this year in the right spot for a snow producing coastal storm. This could have gone two ways ..phase west and cutter, or as appears likely - the northern stream dominates and thus unphased and out to sea.

Because the Euro had it I took it seriously. But this is the second time the Euro has teased like this around day 5. It's losing it's credibility...won't believe it next time.

I'll take it.

If I could sign off on that right now, I would.

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Talking about 6 days out is fruitless when trying rationalize the Euro being worse for EC storms vs GFS, Ji.

If I only could bump all your posts over the years when the GFS gave you a storm and the Euro schooled it inside of 96 hours.

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