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okie333

OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

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Hey guys..I've been lurking lately trying not to get my hopes up. I live in south Tulsa county so I'll keep y'all updated tomorrow on anything here. Thanks for everything you guys do:)

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Late week system is still in limbo. I still don't trust the GFS to know what to do with all that energy, although it is closing it off into a low this run, but it might be too far east. Still a lot of time to watch that.

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Hi Amber! Long time no see!

Lol, ya January was kind of boring! Really hoping we don't get stuck in the screw zone between two storms!! That is definitely not normal for Tulsa:)

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At least the trend is our friend... hang on friends. I think we have some surprises this week. :) 

 

The first is the northerly last minute adjustments. A few more miles north and we all may be happy!!! Will be interesting to track tomorrow. 

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Late week system is still in limbo. I still don't trust the GFS to know what to do with all that energy, although it is closing it off into a low this run, but it might be too far east. Still a lot of time to watch that.

Interesting solution nonetheless. I would take it.

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Finally home from El Dorado Springs. It was an icy mess up there, but roads quickly cleared as we approached Lamar. Will anxiously await the Euro's 00z run. 

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It started snowing here but I'm stuck in a snow hole now. Its drying out before it gets here. Lol

Normally I love the weather, winter weather included but we've got some business partners flying into town tomorrow, so I'm hoping Tuesday doesn't mean a 4 hour commute to work because missing work Tuesday will be rough.  

 

I'm headed north for the super bowl this afternoon and it's snowing moderately here now, kind of surprised it started this early to be honest.

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Please define disaster.   :)

 

Nice light snow in progress here.  

 

Disaster.... lol... I-44 misses out for once.

 

disaster.png

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Any idea why the Tuesday storm shows taking such a northerly track towards Wichita/KC?  

 

The Friday storm looks OK but not super strong.  Maybe a couple of inches for us.  

 

It's just the track of the upper level storm/trough configuration. 

 

The late week system into the weekend could be very huge for someone between Denver and the east coast. But pinning down where is an exercise in futility this far out. It definitely is a candidate for a big storm... somewhere. 

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It's just the track of the upper level storm/trough configuration. 

 

The late week system into the weekend could be very huge for someone between Denver and the east coast. But pinning down where is an exercise in futility this far out. It definitely is a candidate for a big storm... somewhere. 

The satellite and water vapor imagery on the Tuesday storm looks impressive.  It's riding down the West Coast and just making landfall into central CA.  Maybe we can get it to dig a bit more.  Time will tell...

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Have I mentioned how wonderful Canada is? 12z GGEM has a burst of heavier precip before the dryslot which adds precip.

 

ohcanada.png

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RE: Next weekends system.

 

The last 3 runs of the GFS (and maybe before then) have been showing the possibility of a big system, complete with an actual surface low, closed off upper low, and possible negative tilt. 

 

The morning of the 9th, which is next Sunday... the surface low and strength of the system from instantweathermaps: 

 

00z = 1008 MB over central TN/KY border.

06z = 1004 MB over central KY.

12z = 1000 MB over Southern Illinois. 

 

So the trend has been to bring it back west, and stronger. We'll have to see how it plays out in the other models but the signal is there for something big...somewhere.

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yeah, daytime snow is where it's at. Although a light/moderate night snow can be just as good if you can watch it fall in front of a light or something. Thundersnow is still better though. ;)

 

Tulsa has 4-7" of snow for most everyone through next Sunday, so it looks like everyone will get snow at some point.

 

StormSnowAmt.png

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yeah, daytime snow is where it's at. Although a light/moderate night snow can be just as good if you can watch it fall in front of a light or something. Thundersnow is still better though. ;)

Tulsa has 4-7" of snow for most everyone through next Sunday, so it looks like everyone will get snow at some point.

StormSnowAmt.png

I do love thundersnow. The purple colored lightening if you get to see it looks really neat too.

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12z Euro has that nasty dry slot for the Tues system. :( 

 

1-4" with it maybe across our area? My regional Euro maps aren't loading today.

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Closing in on 4" here now! It let up for about 10 minutes and is just complete whiteout once again! My opinion, I like early evening snowstorms and some thunder plz lol. JoMo whats your thinking for monday night tuesday for down this way man? No big deal? Tulsa so wrapped up with this storm they havent talked much about that one. I might have to run to kc tuesday, not sure yet.

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I'm probably looking at 3 now. Not bad for 3 hours of good snow. Sitting in the last strong band right now. Hope it goes another hour or 2.

Agree, I havent seen this heavy of snow since that one march storm a few years back! But man that sun is so desperately trying to blaze through the cloud deck! Temp is up a little to 28 now here. Im happy with what we got now, anyone know offhand what the yearly average snowfall is here in arkansas?

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Closing in on 4" here now! It let up for about 10 minutes and is just complete whiteout once again! My opinion, I like early evening snowstorms and some thunder plz lol. JoMo whats your thinking for monday night tuesday for down this way man? No big deal? Tulsa so wrapped up with this storm they havent talked much about that one. I might have to run to kc tuesday, not sure yet.

 

12z Euro shows a couple inches are possible. It might be more of a mix down that way.. haven't looked at the details.

 

Basically only a couple inches up in KC as well. 

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Thanks JoMo, appreciate it! And yea the last they did talk about it tulsa said the same, a mix likely. I think last night it showed a mix over to sleet and snow for tuesday.

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