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December 16th event

RaleighWx

By RaleighWx,
in Southeastern States

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Kinda surprised no one has mentioned how far north the 18z GFS ensembles are. Almost all of them are north of the OP, most would imply a much reduced frozen/freezing precip threat.

Hoping they are wrong.

The mean looks a little north, I don't see the individual members yet. The 12z members look consistent, to me.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

I wouldn't worry too much about a north trend in the 18Z GFS ensembles, especially over 96 hrs out. But I will take a High Pressure finally showing up on the 18Z operational run. Ok, I'll go ahead and give myself one of these: :arrowhead:

It would be funny if this went north and DC squeezed 4-5" and than got walloped next Sunday.

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burrel2

burrel2

Posted
Posted

850s are a little warm as the heart of the moisture is moving in but it seems to have trended colder so we can hope it does. Still a long ways off.

Yea, I think the best we can hope for is some front end snow followed by freezing rain. It's nice to see another model give some support to the GFS. I haven't looked a low level temps for the NAM yet, but I'm sure we should get some decent freezing rain out of this run.

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SBUWX23

SBUWX23

Posted
Posted

Good to see the 0z nam is further south. I was starting to get a little concerned w/ 18z nam and the 18z gfs ensembles being north. The nam looks a lot like the gfs so far.

You can see on the sim reflectivity precip is moving into central NC between 06z and 12z Thurs when it would be mostly snow.

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Lowpressure

Lowpressure

Posted
Posted

It's nice to actually be looking at a potentially decent winter storm that's only four days away. First time this winter! thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

It's fun looking at long-range model porn, but it really gets exciting when it gets in the closer range and actually has a chance at happening.

I hear ya. When it is in the NAM range and it shows winter, there is at least a fair chance of it happening.

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HWY316wx

HWY316wx

Posted
Posted

Out of Huntsville tonight:

WEDNESDAY...

THE UPR PATTERN BCMS MORE AND MORE ZONAL THRU THE WEEK.

THIS IS A GOOD NEWS/BAD NEWS SITUATION. SRN PLNS LEE CYCLOGENESIS

TAKES PLACE LATE TUE INTO WED...INSTIGATING A LARGE SCALE SWLY

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ZONE THRU THE DEEP SOUTH NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY.

THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN WITH A WINTRY

SCENARIO GIVEN THE CP DOME OF AIR IN PLACE. THE NAM IS ALSO

SUGGESTING THIS...ALBEIT WITH A HIGHER THREAT FOR NWRN AL INTO

MIDDLE TN. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS CERTAINLY FAVORABLE WITH A

SHALLOW CP AIRMASS BEING SUPERIMPOSED BY MT AIRMASS (AT LEAST

INITIALLY). FCST SOUNDINGS ARE ADAMANT ABOUT KEEPING A SHALLOW COLD

DOME IN PLACE THRU MUCH OF WED AIDED BY A SELY COLD/DRY NEAR SFC

CONVEYOR FLOW. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARM NOSE INITIALLY AROUND 1-2C

WHICH COULD FAVOR SLEET AT ONSET...WITH WARM NOSE TEMPS CLIMBING TO

3-5C DURG THE DAY FAVORING A CHG TO ALL -FZRA THRU MOST IF NOT ALL

AFTN OF TUE. THERE IS SOME HOPE FOR WARMING ABV FREEZING IN OUR SWRN

COUNTIES BY EVENING...WHILE WET BULB COOLING EFFECTS COULD KEEP

AREAS OF NERN AL/SRN TN COLDER A FEW MORE HRS...BUT HAVE KEPT ALL

RAIN WED NGT AT LEAST ATTM...YET THIS COULD CHANGE. THE GFS QPF

SUGGESTS A PSBL SIGNIFICANT AMT OF ICING POTENTIAL...SO THIS EVENT

CERTAINLY WARRANTS ATTENTION.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

OOz NAM has light snow breaking out across Upstate and Northeast GA Wednesday afternoon. This run is definitely more supressed and further South than the 18z run. Looks a lot like the GFS.

00z looks great at 78 and 81 Snowman.gif

the nam continues the trend of the GFS last few runs. Colder futher south and precip in quicker. It also has the same 5h feature rotating around the main New England vortex which will act as a supressor. The precip (snow) streaks southeast pretty rapidly Wednesday from the Midwest into eastern Kentucky and Tennesse, much like the clipper a week ago, and joins forces with a new warm advection and series of weak waves coming in on zonal flow..thats a recipe for moderate qpf totals and little surface and aloft warming for areas east of the Apps in the Carolinas. The New England vortex holds strong while the weak warm advection goes into snow and ice development, not much aloft warming or surface warming. I remember an episode just like this in 2000 or 2001 in January. I dont like the NAM out past 48 hours though, but its 5H features look close to the GFS which has been lookng reasonable. Looks like the threat of overrunning snow for NC and SC, northeast Tn and Kentucky is going up. Also, once low level cold is east of the Apps, we all know how hard it is to warm up. It would happen with southeast winds, but if your starting so low to start with , say 30's with dewpoints in the teens, then some falling temps are in order and evaporative cooling, and the first 4 to 6 hours of the event could stay subfreezing over a good chunk of Upper SC and much of NC away from the southern coast and by then much of the damage is done. For many would be a snow to sleet to ZR scenario, for northenr NC possibly mostly snow.

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HWY316wx

HWY316wx

Posted
Posted

the nam continues the trend of the GFS last few runs. Colder futher south and precip in quicker. It also has the same 5h feature rotating around the main New England vortex which will act as a supressor. The precip (snow) streaks southeast pretty rapidly Wednesday from the Midwest into eastern Kentucky and Tennesse, much like the clipper a week ago, and joins forces with a new warm advection and series of weak waves coming in on zonal flow..thats a recipe for moderate qpf totals and little surface and aloft warming for areas east of the Apps in the Carolinas. The New England vortex holds strong while the weak warm advection goes into snow and ice development, not much aloft warming or surface warming. I remember an episode just like this in 2000 or 2001 in January. I dont like the NAM out past 48 hours though, but its 5H features look close to the GFS which has been lookng reasonable. Looks like the threat of overrunning snow for NC and SC, northeast Tn and Kentucky is going up. Also, once low level cold is east of the Apps, we all know how hard it is to warm up. It would happen with southeast winds, but if your starting so low to start with , say 30's with dewpoints in the teens, then some falling temps are in order and evaporative cooling, and the first 4 to 6 hours of the event could stay subfreezing over a good chunk of Upper SC and much of NC away from the southern coast and by then much of the damage is done. For many would be a snow to sleet to ZR scenario, for northenr NC possibly mostly snow.

So given the GFS verbatim, it seems those of us in GA would be looking at 33 and raining?:axe:

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted

the nam continues the trend of the GFS last few runs. Colder futher south and precip in quicker. It also has the same 5h feature rotating around the main New England vortex which will act as a supressor. The precip (snow) streaks southeast pretty rapidly Wednesday from the Midwest into eastern Kentucky and Tennesse, much like the clipper a week ago, and joins forces with a new warm advection and series of weak waves coming in on zonal flow..thats a recipe for moderate qpf totals and little surface and aloft warming for areas east of the Apps in the Carolinas. The New England vortex holds strong while the weak warm advection goes into snow and ice development, not much aloft warming or surface warming. I remember an episode just like this in 2000 or 2001 in January. I dont like the NAM out past 48 hours though, but its 5H features look close to the GFS which has been lookng reasonable. Looks like the threat of overrunning snow for NC and SC, northeast Tn and Kentucky is going up. Also, once low level cold is east of the Apps, we all know how hard it is to warm up. It would happen with southeast winds, but if your starting so low to start with , say 30's with dewpoints in the teens, then some falling temps are in order and evaporative cooling, and the first 4 to 6 hours of the event could stay subfreezing over a good chunk of Upper SC and much of NC away from the southern coast and by then much of the damage is done. For many would be a snow to sleet to ZR scenario, for northenr NC possibly mostly snow.

How much precip amounts are you thinking .25-.05 or more ?

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

So given the GFS verbatim, it seems those of us in GA would be looking at 33 and raining?:axe:

some of GA yes, but not all I don't think. So far the moisture is coming from NW at first then due west, and mainly looks to affect northern third of GA initially, while theres still cold air and low dewpoints. The trends though continue to sink south a little. Still plenty of time on this, but If I were in N. Ga I would be seriously watching the models and forecasts...that would be the best chance at snow or ice I think.

How much precip amounts are you thinking .25-.05 or more ?

Interesting because the models are having trouble on that aspect. i dont' trust it. They all have a distinct drying on this side of the Apps, while giving TN and KY almost 1". Its really early to make a forecast on qpf yet though, so I'd wait until later, but for now "significant".

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

The cold ground could be very helpful to us. While the soil temperatures don't make too much difference for moderate/heavy snow, it can make quite a bit of difference in regards to light snow, I think. Depending on the QPF we actually get from this, the soil temps could do us all a nice favor! Being near the Winter Solstice can't hurt, either.

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xwx

xwx

Posted
Posted

the nam continues the trend of the GFS last few runs. Colder futher south and precip in quicker. It also has the same 5h feature rotating around the main New England vortex which will act as a supressor. The precip (snow) streaks southeast pretty rapidly Wednesday from the Midwest into eastern Kentucky and Tennesse, much like the clipper a week ago, and joins forces with a new warm advection and series of weak waves coming in on zonal flow..thats a recipe for moderate qpf totals and little surface and aloft warming for areas east of the Apps in the Carolinas. The New England vortex holds strong while the weak warm advection goes into snow and ice development, not much aloft warming or surface warming. I remember an episode just like this in 2000 or 2001 in January. I dont like the NAM out past 48 hours though, but its 5H features look close to the GFS which has been lookng reasonable. Looks like the threat of overrunning snow for NC and SC, northeast Tn and Kentucky is going up. Also, once low level cold is east of the Apps, we all know how hard it is to warm up. It would happen with southeast winds, but if your starting so low to start with , say 30's with dewpoints in the teens, then some falling temps are in order and evaporative cooling, and the first 4 to 6 hours of the event could stay subfreezing over a good chunk of Upper SC and much of NC away from the southern coast and by then much of the damage is done. For many would be a snow to sleet to ZR scenario, for northenr NC possibly mostly snow.

very well stated.....waa snows will break out very fast wed after midngt over the piedmonts of va/nc...........2-4 snows are not out of the question...........1000-700mb rn-sn line dips into the upstate wedngt.......Interesting

xwx

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xwx

xwx

Posted
Posted

The cold ground could be very helpful to us. While the soil temperatures don't make too much difference for moderate/heavy snow, it can make quite a bit of difference in regards to light snow, I think. Depending on the QPF we actually get from this, the soil temps could do us all a nice favor! Being near the Winter Solstice can't hurt, either.

yes it will....and the hi sn ratios...........

xwx

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

It's nice to actually be looking at a potentially decent winter storm that's only four days away. First time this winter! :thumbsup:

It's fun looking at long-range model porn, but it really gets exciting when it gets in the closer range and actually has a chance at happening.

Nice picture, James...just realized what it was...the CAROLINA CRUSHER! :thumbsup: I was 14 I believe, you were probably a lot younger haha...

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