Wmsptwx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 LOL....all of this bickering about temps and the storm is gone in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 LOL....all of this bickering about temps and the storm is gone in one run. It is still there but just strung out. Goes neutral much later, thus the farther east and suppressed track. MAG is right, it is going to depend on how much dig the cold front can muster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 LOL....all of this bickering about temps and the storm is gone in one run. We do have more than one model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Hardly even worth worrying about at this point besides the potential. There is a lot of energy, but it is so strung out and the models are struggling with what to do with it. I could see how it goes off Hatteras, and I could see how this goes through Cincinnati. New GFS and SREFs show the opposites... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The track will likely depend on how much of a press the frontal boundary gets for this storm to run along. The 0z NAM would be an excellent run for you and especially wsptwx with a classic snow shield on the northern half of pa with the rain/snow line dipping south to the mason dixon line in the central counties. Seems to be a bit warm for the southeastern folks below approx I-80 or maybe I-78. But for now, its good to see some support for the GFS solutions. About the NAO, yea its positive currently but keep in mind this potential event is coming in the middle or at the end of the NAO nose diving toward neutral as per the current forecast. Storms tend to like to appear during times of a swing in the NAO (either rising from negative or falling from positive)...so that in itself tends to make me think that we will be dealing with some kind of a storm Thursday somewhere in PA. Right now I think theres a better chance this stays south of PA than it being too far west for snow...but I like the chances currently. To tie more into that NWS excerpt that Mallow posted earlier, I do agree about the Southeast ridge maybe rearing its ugly head but once again we are dealing with a forecast flip from a +NAO to a more neutral one in this timeframe while we keep a fairly neutral PNA. So the SE ridge might be flattened just enough to allow for this low track that gets under PA in a fashion supportive for snow in at least some of the interior of the state. You make great points and I can't argue with this. I was planning on the frontal boundary to dig and press more this run allowing the LP to cut more but it did the opposite! Humble pie taste pretty good . The waiting game continues with the models lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 UKMET at H5 looks like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 UKMET at H5 looks like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Saw a pretty decent UKMET surface map over on the New England thread, it has a nice low placement for a CTP event this eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Saw a pretty decent UKMET surface map over on the New England thread, it has a nice low placement for a CTP event this eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 So far NAM/UKIE vs. CMC/GFS. Euro to be tie breaker in about an hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 EURO went NW of 12Z but not like NAM or UKMET. I would say a mix of UKIE and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 EURO went NW of 12Z but not like NAM or UKMET. I would say a mix of UKIE and GFS Yea I guess you could consider it a step in the right direction. Low itself seems to be centered in a good place (right over norfolk) at 72h. Only got text but looks like you, MDT and LNS get involved but it appears to be some kind of a rain-snow scenario. Several 6 hour periods of like a tenth or two of rain and then the last couple dealing with the passage of that coastal low give you guys at least a few tenths that would likely be flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Yea I guess you could consider it a step in the right direction. Low itself seems to be centered in a good place (right over norfolk) at 72h. Only got text but looks like you, MDT and LNS get involved but it appears to be some kind of a rain-snow scenario. Several 6 hour periods of like a tenth or two of rain and then the last couple dealing with the passage of that coastal low give you guys at least a few tenths that would likely be flakes. It is not much but it is a start. Here is hoping the ukie and nam are more correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It is not much but it is a start. Here is hoping the ukie and nam are more correct. The 21z SREFs seemed to pick up on the system pretty well and there were several members that were leaning pretty far to the left to the point that it would prob be too warm for alot of ppl. I'm sure the 03z run will probably have some interesting members too. It's at the edge of their range so details won't be worked out of course. But i do like that, for now.. they seem to be picking up on the potential storm early. I remember with the end of October snowstorm that the SREF's came around really late in the game. At any rate, it will probably be all fun and games watching the models do this and that thru at least Tuesday before they may decide to agree on something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 6Z NAM come south puts S.Central and SE in win. Thinking that area has the best shot at this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 This event potential reminds me of Dec 9, 1992. That was marginally cold enough for a sloppy wet storm to affect the region. It was my first snow plowing event. Places like Lanc were mainly rain, equal mix at KMDT, Harrisburg proper was mixing but sticking and areas north and west made out pretty well. I seem to recall about 4" of accum at my house. That was also mainly a day time event (started early morning) and had a butt load of easterlies at Low levels off the Atl. (why Lanc and Phila were mostly rain). The stuff became almost cement like the next two nights as the high water content of what had laid froze up like a brick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 6z suppresssed, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Couple of things this AM: 1.) There appears to be agreement on a storm of some magnitude. Unless things change in the next 24 hours, that seems reasonably certain. 2.) Air mass appears to remain marginal. Elevation and latitude will be key. 3.) Heaviest precipitation might stay S&E of I-81 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Good points Eskimo...I'm thinking our buddy voyager has the best shot at anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Good points Eskimo...I'm thinking our buddy voyager has the best shot at anything. JB sees a low outside cut fastball and decides to pull it: http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/status/143684549103198209/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Couple of things this AM: 1.) There appears to be agreement on a storm of some magnitude. Unless things change in the next 24 hours, that seems reasonably certain. 2.) Air mass appears to remain marginal. Elevation and latitude will be key. 3.) Heaviest precipitation might stay S&E of I-81 again. And the beat goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Couple of things this AM: 1.) There appears to be agreement on a storm of some magnitude. Unless things change in the next 24 hours, that seems reasonably certain. 2.) Air mass appears to remain marginal. Elevation and latitude will be key. 3.) Heaviest precipitation might stay S&E of I-81 again. How is this suppressed? I was expecting it actually to go so far NW we would get rain if it was to be a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 6Z NAM come south puts S.Central and SE in win. Thinking that area has the best shot at this one. IMO, this is the ideal situation for Harrisburg / York / Lancaster / Shippensburg / Gettysburg. Temps 28 - 32, with a plowable snowfall. The vertical temperature profile for the aforementioned locations is reasonable and the overall synoptic setup, given this pattern, seems logical to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 How is this suppressed? I was expecting it actually to go so far NW we would get rain if it was to be a bust. I haven't seen this close off at 500mb until it's wayyyy offshore. Since the mid level features are never able to fight the flow, it can never really dig northwest. Then again, I haven't had my coffee this morning yet so I may be just out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I was wondering if something like that could happen, too... and some of the GFS ensembles (and the 18z NAM) would seem to support that scenario. Still, I would put probabilities as something like this: 25% - too far south/east... nothing in State College 30% - a bit too far south/east... Harrisburg does very well, but only an inch or two in State College. 25% - just right... 4"+ in State College 20% - too far north/west, rain at first, less than 1" of snow after transition Update: 35% 35% 20% 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Update: 35% 35% 20% 10% Yeah. Gonna have to bail on my OV cutter idea after the 12z runs. What sucks is, even with the storm to my SE, I'm still marginal temp wise. Guess idk whether to look at this glass half full or half empty. One hand, in previous years this setup would likely spell rain with ending flurries. On the other; in the past couple years, storms that have spelled rain magically found enough cold to have it snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I would get rid of any chance of too far northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I would get rid of any chance of too far northwest. I'm leaving it for now as the ECMWF precip shield shifted big time from 12 to 0z. It is unlikely it makes another huge shift (and even if it does,you would think it would correct back a tad as usual) which would pretty much eliminate a OV track and make it a track over CPA. Boy, aren't the Wunderground plots nice? Hope this isn't some cruel trick to sting us along and then yank the rug out from under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Lol at the NAM 6z s/w location at 12/8 6z- Over Eastern AR/Western TN 12z location- Over Eastern TN/Western VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 First the Halloween storm now this! 2 chances before the 1st of the year, good stuff! The days leading up to a storm, the flip flopping, its all part of the journey! A thursday Snow will make friday a fun hunting day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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