EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 18Z NAM is going to be a sick run. H5 Vort is sexy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It's interesting to see the EURO and GFS ensembles pull closer to the coast and enhance the precip field somewhat, especially on the northwest side. If we see this hold serve through 12z tomorrow, if not become more accentuated, then perhaps I will bite. My thoughts exactly. I am not really thinking anything either way right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 18z NAM is looking a lot like the 12z GFS at hour 48. I think this shortwave is just not large enough to really amp up much. It's not in a great location relative to the longwave to the northwest. Bottom line, nobody should expect a killer snowstorm. Plowable, maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 18z NAM is looking a lot like the 12z GFS at hour 48. I think this shortwave is just not large enough to really amp up much. It's not in a great location relative to the longwave to the northwest. Bottom line, nobody should expect a killer snowstorm. Plowable, maybe. NAM is way more amped then GFS. NAM GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Come to papa!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM is way more amped then GFS. NAM GFS Take a look at the energy over North Dakota on both images. The NAM has a much stronger and well defined piece of energy than its counterpart the GFS. But, both models are develop a comma-head signature at 700mb. Also take note of the southern stream energy attempting to interact more vigorously. Not saying this is going to be a game changer, but just a feature which demands some attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Precip shield's a bit further north. 18Z: Clown map only for poops and giggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Jamie you should have put that map over in the other thread lol http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/30652-the-complaint-department-share-your-winter-pain-here/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 18Z is an beast. Nice snow for PA. Looks like the GFS ENS members. Next up 18Z GFS will it fold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 This has Oct. 29, 2011 written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 This has Oct. 29, 2011 written all over it. Yes sir. And I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 i will decide tomorrow if i'm taking off and hunting Thursday and friday. forecast will play a huge role in that decision fellas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM is quite juicy, wide area of 1"+ QPF south and east of I-81. Still thinks it's overdone. EDIT: Temperatures cool off much better and some nice UVV's for Gettysburg / York / Lancaster / Reading / Lebanon / Harrisburg might do quite well if this is the start of a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Dat nice. Maybe we sneak some TSSN out of this one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM is quite juicy, wide area of 1"+ QPF south and east of I-81. Still thinks it's overdone. Maybe a little but like 70% of the GFS ENS showed 2-3" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM is quite juicy, wide area of 1"+ QPF south and east of I-81. Still thinks it's overdone. 1/2 that would still be pretty awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 CTP playing it very conservative: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A POSITIVE TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO TX ON WED WILL BRING DEEP BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE ON A CONSENSUS CONCERNING ULTIMATE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY THE HANDLING OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY...THOUGH GFS/ECMWF IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF SFC LOW WED NIGHT BUT WITH TIMING DIFF CONTINUING. WITH THIS IN MIND...MAINTAINED BASIC THEME OF PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LEANING TOWARDS THE FASTER MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF...KEEPING POPS HIGHEST IN THE SE WITH QUICKLY DECREASING POPS TO THE NW. PRECIP TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN WED AFT AND EVE...BUT COULD MIX/TURN TO SNOW LATER WED NIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUM POSSIBLE. ONE CAVEAT...WITH SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE...THIS SYSTEM AND QPF AMOUNTS /AS WELL AS THE GENERAL IMPACT OVERALL/ COULD POSS BE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY PREDICTED. DEPENDING ON THE OUTCOME...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TO PRODUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 1/2 that would still be pretty awesome I know I want a ton of snow. But, 2" would also be nice. Though I am think much more at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 CTP playing it very conservative: Very wise move, IMO. Thus far the only real numerical guidance which shows any significant precip is 18z NAM and 12z GFS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 This has Oct. 29, 2011 written all over it. If we had the same total precip that we got during that storm, but better ratios with snow that stuck for the most part, I'd be quite pleased! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 CTP playing it very conservative: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A POSITIVE TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO TX ON WED WILL BRING DEEP BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT. MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE ON A CONSENSUS CONCERNING ULTIMATE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY THE HANDLING OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY...THOUGH GFS/ECMWF IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF SFC LOW WED NIGHT BUT WITH TIMING DIFF CONTINUING. WITH THIS IN MIND...MAINTAINED BASIC THEME OF PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LEANING TOWARDS THE FASTER MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF...KEEPING POPS HIGHEST IN THE SE WITH QUICKLY DECREASING POPS TO THE NW. PRECIP TYPE WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN WED AFT AND EVE...BUT COULD MIX/TURN TO SNOW LATER WED NIGHT WITH LIGHT ACCUM POSSIBLE. ONE CAVEAT...WITH SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE...THIS SYSTEM AND QPF AMOUNTS /AS WELL AS THE GENERAL IMPACT OVERALL/ COULD POSS BE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY PREDICTED. DEPENDING ON THE OUTCOME...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE TO PRODUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. When aren't they? I like LWX's better. .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CUTOFF INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA AT THE SAME TIME COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR PRECIPITATION TO END AS A PERIOD OF SNOW MAINLY FROM WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE INTO THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE WARRANTED ACROSS THESE AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Very wise move, IMO. Thus far the only real numerical guidance which shows any significant precip is 18z NAM and 12z GFS ensembles. Euro and Euro ens as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Very wise move, IMO. Thus far the only real numerical guidance which shows any significant precip is 18z NAM and 12z GFS ensembles. Right.....they can make the switch if needed. Edit: eastern has a point, the Euro does also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 First glance on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 One thing to keep in mind on the NAM, it's still not in its wheelhouse. So don't really trust it that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 One thing to keep in mind on the NAM, it's still not in its wheelhouse. So don't really trust it that much. Agreed 100% I'm sticking with the GFS at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 So I was mistaken, the NAM is a nice hit. I think the differences between the NAM and GFS lies within the longwave position. Both are pretty similar at 500mb with the storm itself. The GFS is further east with the longwave which will push the storm further east. The NAM is more favorable for a C. PA snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Agreed 100% I'm sticking with the GFS at this point. Well that and you never think it will snow in Williamsport. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 So I was mistaken, the NAM is a nice hit. I think the differences between the NAM and GFS lies within the longwave position. Both are pretty similar at 500mb with the storm itself. The GFS is further east with the longwave which will push the storm further east. The NAM is more favorable for a C. PA snowstorm. Notice the ridging out in front is far greater on the NAM. And the H5 doesn't get sheared apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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