Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 CTP throws Central PA a bone. Good call given the current situation. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 842 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2011 .SYNOPSIS... WITH HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING PENNSYLVANIA. CLOUDS FROM THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. FOR THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE WEST AND SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM...UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AVERAGE READINGS LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME WINTRY OR MIXED PRECIPITATION DEPENDING ON THE TRACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It's ok you won't get anything. Wouldn't surprise me any!!! I think the north does better later in the year with the CAD events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM goes east. It is moving toward the GFS slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Neither image supports snow for two key reasons. 1.) Surface temperatures are far too warm. 2.) Storm track is too far west. Come on, you're better than this. Umm actually they do. 850's are below 0 and surface temp is 33. Ya, not sure where that was coming from. Obviously the frame before (which we can't see) on the DGEX would be more telling since the precip shown there fell in the previous 6 hrs, but unless the front was traveling at rocket-speed, I think it would've been plenty cold. And the AVN (GFS???) shows 850s below -4C with ongoing CAD... no way it would be anything but snow there. Anywho, the 00z NAM is beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Pretty close for epic win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Not to be a downer, but I don't feel this one. Too much has to happen just right...way too many moving parts. Well, the NAM looks great for both of us. But we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Ya, not sure where that was coming from. Obviously the frame before (which we can't see) on the DGEX would be more telling since the precip shown there fell in the previous 6 hrs, but unless the front was traveling at rocket-speed, I think it would've been plenty cold. And the AVN shows 850s below -4C with ongoing CAD... no way it would be anything but snow there. Anywho, the 00z NAM is beautiful. Ya I was like Anywho.. lol. Yes NAM is moving in the right direction. Still think a bit to far west based on H5. Think it shifts about 50-75 miles south from this run. Somewhere in PA should get snow from this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Pretty close for epic win. Check out the simulated radar at hr 84. A-mazing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 That is a purdy 6-hour precip 10 meter temp map. That and five bucks can get me a Happy Meal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 That is a purdy 6-hour precip 10 meter temp map. That and five bucks can get me a Happy Meal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Ohhhhhh how I wish I could just make the 00z NAM happen. Instead we have a few days of torture, and many of us may (or may not) end up disappointed in the end. Unfortunately, it's just not going to end up exactly as the 00z NAM shows... as much as many of us wish it could. That is a purdy 6-hour precip 10 meter temp map. That and five bucks can get me a Happy Meal. Yup, my sentiments exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Dynamic cooling can overcome marginal temperatures with a deep saturated column. The GFS keeps us cool enough that it would turn over at the surface with higher omega's at the height of the storm. The DGEX on the other hand is a lost cause (when is it not?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Dynamic cooling can overcome marginal temperatures with a deep saturated column. The GFS keeps us cool enough that it would turn over at the surface with higher omega's at the height of the storm. The DGEX on the other hand is a lost cause (when is it not?). Well I'm more interested in your (or Eskimo Joe's) thoughts on the 00z NAM. Do you think that would be too warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Well I'm more interested in your thoughts on the 00z NAM. Do you think that would be too warm? Depends on your location... 0z NAM might be a bit too warm even for dynamic cooling for areas like Lancaster/York/Adams. Areas like State College, Breezewood, Scranton would be ok. But hey, its the 84 Hr NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Well I'm more interested in your (or Eskimo Joe's) thoughts on the 00z NAM. Do you think that would be too warm? Are you talking about just State College / Centre County, or for central PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Depends on your location... 0z NAM might be a bit too warm even for dynamic cooling for areas like Lancaster/York/Adams. Areas like State College, Breezewood, Scranton would be ok. But hey, its the 84 Hr NAM. I think we're in agreement on all of the above, then. Are you talking about just State College / Centre County, or for central PA? Ya, and I realize that you're looking at the broader area... I'd certainly agree that, for example, the 00z NAM would show a changeover in south-central PA, taken at face value. Which, of course, is never recommended procedure with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I'd almost wager we all get screwed for the upcoming storm. The PV to the north doesn't really scream snowfall scenario and the NAO is yuck. I'm just about confident in a west of the apps track that keeps most areas in the rain, but maybe some CAD could make things interesting. I think I might bet Potter county on this! Winner gets all the hunting to themselves lolz. Maybe not an exact west of the apps track, but enough WAA to ruin the whole snow idea for most, but we will see. I'm going to track it regardless BOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I think we're in agreement on all of the above, then. Ya, and I realize that you're looking at the broader area... I'd certainly agree that, for example, the 00z NAM would show a changeover in south-central PA, taken at face value. Which, of course, is never recommended procedure with the NAM. Hey Michael, as someone who grew up down in York, you need to be aware of something. Even though it's not geographically correct, the Harrisburg area is considered by locals as "central PA". Yeah, it's weird, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Hey Michael, as someone who grew up down in York, you need to be aware of something. Even though it's not geographically correct, the Harrisburg area is considered by locals as "central PA". Yeah, it's weird, lol. Good to know. So is State College then just "the middle of f***ing nowhere, PA"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Good to know. So is State College then just "the middle of f***ing nowhere, PA"? Compared to the outside areas, YES lol. But that isn't saying much, might as well be droped off in the middle of the black forest up here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Good to know. So is State College then just "the middle of f***ing nowhere, PA"? So (depressingly) true! But good to have this on the table. CTP isn't convinced, and they're being prudent at this point. Another day of improving model output and maybe they'll honk a bit louder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I'd almost wager we all get screwed for the upcoming storm. The PV to the north doesn't really scream snowfall scenario and the NAO is yuck. I'm just about confident in a west of the apps track that keeps most areas in the rain, but maybe some CAD could make things interesting. I think I might bet Potter county on this! Winner gets all the hunting to themselves lolz The NAO isn't necessary for snow in this region. The NAO makes the upstream block which slows down the system and forces the the system to attack the Greenland block, thus having a coastal solution a higher probability. When there is no NAO, the s/w is not going to amplify significantly and be faster and quicker hitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 To address a few questions, as per initial musings on the system later this week. For the sake of transparency I do not want any storm whatsoever, but I promise to be objective nonetheless. Obviously things can and probably will change. 1.) Definitely looks to be a marginal event. Elevation and latitude will be key factors. 2.) South and East of I-81 looks appears too warm at this point for any significant snows. 3.) Altoona, Johnstown, State College so far looks like the best spots to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 So (depressingly) true! But good to have this on the table. CTP isn't convinced, and they're being prudent at this point. Another day of improving model output and maybe they'll honk a bit louder. It would mean a lot if the Euro shifted towards the GFS/NAM duo. Of course, we could always see them all continue to shift further west from there and give us a rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Same old people saying no storm. lol. Same thing every storm. It is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The NAO isn't necessary for snow in this region. The NAO makes the upstream block which slows down the system and forces the the system to attack the Greenland block, thus having a coastal solution a higher probability. When there is no NAO, the s/w is not going to amplify significantly and be faster and quicker hitting. I agree for the most part this is true, but it helps to have a -NAO to allow more cold air to set in when the storm arives. Especially with marginal events like this. I just think there is nothing to prevent this LP from not cutting, there is no blocking HP, so it seems likely the PV will guide the system towards the west unless it can build in further to the SE to prevent it from cutting. Usually without a favorable NAO you don't get that nice cold HP to the north to lock in the cold air for areas like southern PA and places that usually need every parcel of cold air. I still think slop storm but we will see. Maybe the 00z GFS can convince me otherwise! Edit, I think NW and western places stand a better chance of seeing all snow with this setup. I'm quite worried about south central and eastern pa with mixing issues with the PV location and no blocking HP to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It would mean a lot if the Euro shifted towards the GFS/NAM duo. Of course, we could always see them all continue to shift further west from there and give us a rainstorm. Looks like instead the 00z GFS is shifting towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Looks like instead the 00z GFS is shifting towards the Euro. Should mention the 12Z euro ENS were in line with the GFS. So could be just a fluke run or something. We shall see. Models go back and forth as we all know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Looks like instead the 00z GFS is shifting towards the Euro. yeah it does darnit lol. Storm never really develops, kinda just flat and depressed PV location doesn't really change much this run, just the dynamics aren't there to start development. Flat flat flat, but zak is right. Models just doing its dance. Although the energy goes neutral much later this run, over KY compared to MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I'd almost wager we all get screwed for the upcoming storm. The PV to the north doesn't really scream snowfall scenario and the NAO is yuck. I'm just about confident in a west of the apps track that keeps most areas in the rain, but maybe some CAD could make things interesting. I think I might bet Potter county on this! Winner gets all the hunting to themselves lolz. Maybe not an exact west of the apps track, but enough WAA to ruin the whole snow idea for most, but we will see. I'm going to track it regardless BOL! The track will likely depend on how much of a press the frontal boundary gets for this storm to run along. The 0z NAM would be an excellent run for you and especially wsptwx with a classic snow shield on the northern half of pa with the rain/snow line dipping south to the mason dixon line in the central counties. Seems to be a bit warm for the southeastern folks below approx I-80 or maybe I-78. But for now, its good to see some support for the GFS solutions. About the NAO, yea its positive currently but keep in mind this potential event is coming in the middle or at the end of the NAO nose diving toward neutral as per the current forecast. Storms tend to like to appear during times of a swing in the NAO (either rising from negative or falling from positive)...so that in itself tends to make me think that we will be dealing with some kind of a storm Thursday somewhere in PA. Right now I think theres a better chance this stays south of PA than it being too far west for snow...but I like the chances currently. To tie more into that NWS excerpt that Mallow posted earlier, I do agree about the Southeast ridge maybe rearing its ugly head but once again we are dealing with a forecast flip from a +NAO to a more neutral one in this timeframe while we keep a fairly neutral PNA. So the SE ridge might be flattened just enough to allow for this low track that gets under PA in a fashion supportive for snow in at least some of the interior of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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