JamieOber Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Dropped to 23.0° this morning, second coldest morning so far this fall. Looks like similar lows tomorrow morning, perhaps a degree or two lower in some areas. Got to 23.3. Our lowest was 21.4 last month. Very, very thick frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Well models leaning away from our storm now. 6Z GFS ENS there was a few interesting members. However, the NAO and PNA look to be going in the right direction for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Well models leaning away from our storm now. 6Z GFS ENS there was a few interesting members. However, the NAO and PNA look to be going in the right direction for once. Yeah...I'm thinking by around Christmas we'll have at least a decent cold shot and maybe a few snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I don't know if anyone seen these or not but this is pretty neat. New nam model graphics. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NAMSFC4_12z/comploop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Also the MJO is going toward phase 5 which is a good sign as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 I don't know if anyone seen these or not but this is pretty neat. New nam model graphics. http://www.meteo.psu...z/comploop.html Wow, bookmarked and thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 2, 2011 Share Posted December 2, 2011 Just not a good pattern for snow. Either wet and warm or cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Well models leaning away from our storm now. 6Z GFS ENS there was a few interesting members. However, the NAO and PNA look to be going in the right direction for once. Those index forecasts are certainly a lot more decisive today, thats for sure. Two days ago the AO had a ensemble spread of 5 standard deviations (from +4 to -1) near the Dec 5-7th timeframe and the PNA and NAO forecasts were pretty similar in their spread. Still a work in progress with regards to a decent regime to maybe deliver our first (in season) winter storm of the season. I'd still be looking for a clipper type system as the first one to deliver some kind of a widespread snowfall until we get the teleconnections lined up better..assuming this early week storm coming up doesn't actually end up having a backend changeover. Otherwise, systems coming out of the southwest will have a high likelihood to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 3, 2011 Author Share Posted December 3, 2011 Just not a good pattern for snow. Either wet and warm or cold and dry. Classic La Nina...hey we've had two real good years so we had out fun for a decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Classic La Nina...hey we've had two real good years so we had out fun for a decade. Yup. Can't complain too loud. I think everybody who said we were spoiled by the Oct event, was right. Everybody is greedy now and are starting to show impatience lol. Maybe we can get some decent LE when this PV complex presses South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Classic La Nina...hey we've had two real good years so we had out fun for a decade. not up this way unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 LOL...ya exactly...not up north!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Don't look now but the 0z GFS showing some drastic changes with the storm on the 7th/8th. Not holding nearly as much energy back, has the troff really sharpening up and takes on a negative tilt through the MRV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 good lord, 0z GFS straight up brings the arctic down and keeps it there for the course of its long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 good lord, 0z GFS straight up brings the arctic down and keeps it there for the course of its long range. Are you buying it lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Are you buying it lol? Things have certainly looked chillier in the long range as of late on the models, so I anticipate at least seasonably cold weather once we get through this early week event and whatever it brings. The key will be if we can get some better support for this via the teleconnections. And ensemble generated teleconnection forecasts have been all over the place more often than not with very high spread (except for todays which was much more decisive and trending in a good direction). My concern is continuing to get storms that end up cutting west ala the classic nina pattern. 0z GFS is the first run i've seen that had a bunch of cold and a few timeframes where you could argue snowfall oppurtunities. Not gonna totally bite yet, but will be watching to see how things go in later runs. I do know from watching JB's twitter that he seems to support the idea of some major cold in the US near mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Things have certainly looked chillier in the long range as of late on the models, so I anticipate at least seasonably cold weather once we get through this early week event and whatever it brings. The key will be if we can get some better support for this via the teleconnections. And ensemble generated teleconnection forecasts have been all over the place more often than not with very high spread (except for todays which was much more decisive and trending in a good direction). My concern is continuing to get storms that end up cutting west ala the classic nina pattern. 0z GFS is the first run i've seen that had a bunch of cold and a few timeframes where you could argue snowfall oppurtunities. Not gonna totally bite yet, but will be watching to see how things go in later runs. I do know from watching JB's twitter that he seems to support the idea of some major cold in the US near mid month. Yeah, it's much better than it was. There do seem to be snowfall opportunities. I had to chuckle at the 384 hour 06Z GFS.....wonder if anyone will take the bait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 .... lol just kidding. I'm not biting JamieO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 ECM following the GFS. Sharpening the troff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 ... eww.. Well hopefully it shifts east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 ... eww.. Well hopefully it shifts east. Seems the Euro and GFS swapped places... the 12z Euro has it more like previous runs of the GFS with development way too far east (and weaker). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 Seems the Euro and GFS swapped places... the 12z Euro has it more like previous runs of the GFS with development way too far east (and weaker). Euro likes to hang back the shortwaves so we will see if it gets off that idea or hangs too it. CMC, NOGAPS, GFS go for the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 At this point in time, I will take whatever storm is shown. The pattern has been boring, at least I have something to track now . The storm does perhaps look to have some backend snow potential but mainly on the western side of PA. The long range looks tolerable and not hideous like it has been lol. You are right MAG and Jamie, in a La Nina seems like you can't win. It is either cold and dry or warm and wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted December 3, 2011 Share Posted December 3, 2011 ... eww.. Well hopefully it shifts east. Wish Granted. It's probably going to be a while before we see any hint of consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 06z GFS throws the southern counties a bone Wednesday night and Thursday...can the 12z model runs back it up? Finally there is something to track even if it is a fail! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 At this point in time, I will take whatever storm is shown. The pattern has been boring, at least I have something to track now . The storm does perhaps look to have some backend snow potential but mainly on the western side of PA. The long range looks tolerable and not hideous like it has been lol. You are right MAG and Jamie, in a La Nina seems like you can't win. It is either cold and dry or warm and wet No, that's not at all what I am saying. I'm saying that this year, there is going to be a lot of false alarms and surprise storms (meaning storm prematurely written off). Gonna have to keep level heads. The question is - do some of you (and you know who you are) have the backbone to keep a level head? This ain't gonna be a winter for p-ussies, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 06z GFS throws the southern counties a bone Wednesday night and Thursday...can the 12z model runs back it up? Finally there is something to track even if it is a fail! Hell yeah it does. Big time Mason Dixon event. 12z just coming out and its a tad more amplified. Major CPA event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I <3 the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Let's get that GFS come further north and west, and we can jackpot everyone in Western and Central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 No, that's not at all what I am saying. I'm saying that this year, there is going to be a lot of false alarms and surprise storms (meaning storm prematurely written off). Gonna have to keep level heads. The question is - do some of you (and you know who you are) have the backbone to keep a level head? This ain't gonna be a winter for p-ussies, folks. i have the backbone...i have already told myself that this isnt my winter and be happy with what you (me) get. not that i over-react to no snow but it does sting a little deep down inside when we (W-Central pa) miss the big ones. life goes on with or without snow and im happy to be alive with a great family <- thats what really matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.