NortheastPAWx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 12z GFS looks awesome. Here's hoping it doesn't screw the 81 corridor again,... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Hell yeah it does. Big time Mason Dixon event. 12z just coming out and its a tad more amplified. Major CPA event. Wow, so yea i'll take that. Though it would need to track a hair further north or cut up more once to the coast to get our northern friends a bit more involved. I'm sure this will be all over the place for a few more days. The emphasis has certainly shifted away from all that rain at the beginning of the week and having a the bigger tail wave roll on through by the time theres enough cold over most of the area. Should be interesting, at least it'll be somethin to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 i have the backbone...i have already told myself that this isnt my winter and be happy with what you (me) get. not that i over-react to no snow but it does sting a little deep down inside when we (W-Central pa) miss the big ones. life goes on with or without snow and im happy to be alive with a great family <- thats what really matters. Our first big test is the 12Z GFS, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Our first big test is the 12Z GFS, lol. is the gfs the only model showing this scenario? ok back to the steelers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Euro no like-y. Without precip plots to judge, UKMET looks like a compromise of the GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 is the gfs the only model showing this scenario? ok back to the steelers. NAM looks like like it would head in the direction and same with UK hard to tell tough. GFS ENS members look good though. Finally some support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 is the gfs the only model showing this scenario? ok back to the steelers. I think so. Speaking of the Steelers, lol at Bengal tackling on that TD run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 LOL yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 FIM says yes as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 Three quick things, as I am loaded down with my last assignment of college EVER! 1.) Watch the cold air and time of day. As we saw in October, 1 - 2 degrees was key. 2.) I've said this before and I will say it again, do not freak out over every run-to-run change. Pay more attention to the 300 / 500 / 700 maps at this time than the surface reflection. If we can maintain some good dynamics then we're in a whole new world. 3.) Elevation will be key. Someone at 1100ft. ASL will obviously do better than a person at 300ft ASL. ...also I can see this happening since I just moved to Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Three quick things, as I am loaded down with my last assignment of college EVER! 1.) Watch the cold air and time of day. As we saw in October, 1 - 2 degrees was key. 2.) I've said this before and I will say it again, do not freak out over every run-to-run change. Pay more attention to the 300 / 500 / 700 maps at this time than the surface reflection. If we can maintain some good dynamics then we're in a whole new world. 3.) Elevation will be key. Someone at 1100ft. ASL will obviously do better than a person at 300ft ASL. ...also I can see this happening since I just moved to Maryland. Why did you move to MD anyway? lol. I am liking what I see. EURO usually holds back the S/W so we will see if in the next few runs it comes around. Should be an interesting couple of days. And if it continues to look this way ones with a lack of sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 Why did you move to MD anyway? lol. I am liking what I see. EURO usually holds back the S/W so we will see if in the next few runs it comes around. Should be an interesting couple of days. And if it continues to look this way ones with a lack of sleep. I now work for the Carroll County OEM, the commute initially was 4 hours per day from Lancaster County, 2 down, 2 up. Traffic is a killer getting off Rt. 30 and getting in I-83. Plus if I even get called in when we activate, having a 10 minute commute is more expedient than 2hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I now work for the Carroll County OEM, the commute initially was 4 hours per day from Lancaster County, 2 down, 2 up. Traffic is a killer getting off Rt. 30 and getting in I-83. Plus if I even get called in when we activate, having a 10 minute commute is more expedient than 2hrs. Ah well good luck man. Hopefully you don't get ripped off down there. You will probably do better with severe weather though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 Ah well good luck man. Hopefully you don't get ripped off down there. You will probably do better with severe weather though. Thanks. I gained nearly 400 feet in elevation down here so in marginal events I might do even better than Lancaster. *fingers crossed* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 LOL yes please. One persons trash is another persons treasure lol. Well at least the southern PA wins! I guess I will have to take my 1" and like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I'm getting a bit more excited now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 DGEX btw is pretty nice as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 FWIW, the Louisville NWS doesn't buy it (and I can't say I can argue against them ) http://forecast.weat...on=1&glossary=1 For Wednesday through Thursday, the models continue to be in pretty good agreement in the fact that the inverted trough structure responsible for our rainy weather will move off to the east. All of the model data then start to focus on fairly decent mid-level wave crossing through the plains on Wednesday. The majority of the models are pretty deep with the wave and actually allow it to cut off across OK/N TX/E AR Wednesday afternoon as it continues east. The 04/12Z GFS continues to be the slowest and strongest with this mid-level wave, which induces a surface cyclone across northern AL/GA and west NC by Wed night. This would bring widespread precipitation to the area with rain to changing to snow by Thursday morning. However, this solution is considered to be an outlier for several reasons.First, there is no upstream blocking over the western Atlantic (i.e. +NAO pattern) which would allow this mid-level wave to deepen as much as the GFS allows and let it go negative tilt. Second, the GFS takes this neg-tilted wave and slides it right into the SE ridge. That is not likely to happen given how stout the SE ridge has been so far this season...nor is that meteorlogically correct. The GFS ensembles are generally in two camps with one favoring the operational solution and the others being much more progressive. The latest 04/12Z Euro, UKMET, and Canadian GEM are all much more progressive and keep the wave neutral to positively tilted and let it slide off to the east of here. Those models develop a system well east of here and then shunt it offshore. With this forecast we have trended our forecast closer to a Euro/Euro Ensemble/GEM compromise and plan on going dry for Wednesday night through Thursday night. It will be cold through the period with temperatures some 6-10 degrees below seasonal normals. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the lower 40s with overnight lows middle 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Control run of the euro was like the GFS. Just because it doesn't happen most times doesn't mean it can't. Did we think the storm for Oct. was going to happen. Not really but, hey it's 2011 crazy things happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 18Z ENS look pretty beefy to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I'd like to note it was warm prior to OCT storm as well and the NAO was positive then as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Three quick things, as I am loaded down with my last assignment of college EVER! 1.) Watch the cold air and time of day. As we saw in October, 1 - 2 degrees was key. 2.) I've said this before and I will say it again, do not freak out over every run-to-run change. Pay more attention to the 300 / 500 / 700 maps at this time than the surface reflection. If we can maintain some good dynamics then we're in a whole new world. 3.) Elevation will be key. Someone at 1100ft. ASL will obviously do better than a person at 300ft ASL. ...also I can see this happening since I just moved to Maryland. #2 is spot on. We'll see how this locks in as we get closer. Hey, at least it's something to watch, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 It's interesting that almost all the GFS ensembles, 12z and 18z, have been much stronger/further north/west than the Euro. Could the Euro be having problems with 500mb vorticity in the southwest US again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 It's interesting that almost all the GFS ensembles, 12z and 18z, have been much stronger/further north/west than the Euro. Could the Euro be having problems with 500mb vorticity in the southwest US again? I'm still not so sure this doesn't cut to our West. Especially that what you have mentioned above favors a trend towards and amplified solution. The positive NAO would argue a cutter through the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I'm still not so sure this doesn't cut to our West. Especially that what you have mentioned above favors a trend towards and amplified solution. The positive NAO would argue a cutter through the OV. I was wondering if something like that could happen, too... and some of the GFS ensembles (and the 18z NAM) would seem to support that scenario. Still, I would put probabilities as something like this: 25% - too far south/east... nothing in central PA 30% - a bit too far south/east... Southern PA does very well, but only an inch or two in central PA. 25% - just right... 4"+ in central PA 20% - too far north/west, rain at first, less than 1" of snow after transition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I was wondering if something like that could happen, too... and some of the GFS ensembles (and the 18z NAM) would seem to support that scenario. Still, I would put probabilities as something like this: 25% - too far south/east... nothing in central PA 30% - a bit too far south/east... Southern PA does very well, but only an inch or two in central PA. 25% - just right... 4"+ in central PA 20% - too far north/west, rain at first, less than 1" of snow after transition That would fit with the trend of the past few winters where areas to the south and east have done better then the usually snowier locations to the north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Not to be a downer, but I don't feel this one. Too much has to happen just right...way too many moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Not to be a downer, but I don't feel this one. Too much has to happen just right...way too many moving parts. It's ok you won't get anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 I'm getting a bit more excited now. DGEX btw is pretty nice as well. Neither image supports snow for two key reasons. 1.) Surface temperatures are far too warm. 2.) Storm track is too far west. Come on, you're better than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Neither image supports snow for two key reasons. 1.) Surface temperatures are far too warm. 2.) Storm track is too far west. Come on, you're better than this. Umm actually they do. 850's are below 0 and surface temp is 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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