Wmsptwx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM another big hit for SE pa and NYC...blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Freezing point all the way to NYC and Philly with that run. Even Balt/DC change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Freezing point all the way to NYC and Philly with that run. Even Balt/DC change over. Over night Wednesday into Thursday? Like early Am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 12Z nice hit for the S.Central SE folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Lol at the NAM 6z s/w location at 12/8 6z- Over Eastern AR/Western TN 12z location- Over Eastern TN/Western VA First the Halloween storm now this! 2 chances before the 1st of the year, good stuff! The days leading up to a storm, the flip flopping, its all part of the journey! A thursday Snow will make friday a fun hunting day! NAM another big hit for SE pa and NYC...blah. Sauss here is right on the flip flops. Also, I wouldn't get too excited either way about the NAM right now. For one, it's outside it's best range and two, this set up is convoluted. If I am in York, I wouldn't spike the ball and in State College, I wouldn't necessarily declare this a total miss. Knowing this helps keep you somewhat sane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I just remembered, is anyone keeping tabs on our snowfall guess's? I don't remember my picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Sauss here is right on the flip flops. Also, I wouldn't get too excited either way about the NAM right now. For one, it's outside it's best range and two, this set up is convoluted. If I am in York, I wouldn't spike the ball and in State College, I wouldn't necessarily declare this a total miss. Knowing this helps keep you somewhat sane. You know hard it is for us up north to keep hope when every big storm the last two years has missed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Over night Wednesday into Thursday? Like early Am? Yeah. 9z its into the mid to low 30's . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I just remembered, is anyone keeping tabs on our snowfall guess's? I don't remember my picks. Ya I got them. pawatch and you have the best shots if this storm comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 You know hard it is for us up north to keep hope when every big storm the last two years has missed us. It's true man. I'm not trying to be annoying or anything, but it seems to be the trend. Until it's bucked, I have no reason to believe otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It's true man. I'm not trying to be annoying or anything, but it seems to be the trend. Until it's bucked, I have no reason to believe otherwise. You know hard it is for us up north to keep hope when every big storm the last two years has missed us. I got 15 inches from the early Feb storm in 2010, and you got hit by the Feb 9 storm. I remember because you looked foolish after you declared that you would never ever get a storm over four inches ever ever again during one of your little fussy tantrums. Remember my earlier post - this is not going to be a winter for p-ussies. If you don't have the backbone, either grow one or take up another hobby like knitting. Seriously - why bother if all you are going to do is come on here and b**ch. If you do it too much, your posts are going to start disappearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I got 15 inches from the early Feb storm in 2010, and you got hit by the Feb 9 storm. I remember because you looked foolish after you declared that you would never ever get a storm over four inches ever ever again during one of your little fussy tantrums. Remember my earlier post - this is not going to be a winter for p-ussies. If you don't have the backbone, either grow one or take up another hobby like knitting. Seriously - why bother if all you are going to do is come on here and b**ch. If you do it too much, your posts are going to start disappearing. JamieO, did I ever tell you I love you. <3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 A few more musings from your friendly neighborhood Eskimo: 1.) NAM is not the final word, for that matter none are right now. Don't live and die by ever model run today or tomorrow AM. Look for trends at 500 / 700 / 850 for temperature and energy. 2.) At the worst I see 5", maybe 6" for someone that has good elevation. I do not expect this to be a big storm since the setup is just too progressive. This will probably be the case for most of the winter, dime and quarter events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I got 15 inches from the early Feb storm in 2010, and you got hit by the Feb 9 storm. I remember because you looked foolish after you declared that you would never ever get a storm over four inches ever ever again during one of your little fussy tantrums. Remember my earlier post - this is not going to be a winter for p-ussies. If you don't have the backbone, either grow one or take up another hobby like knitting. Seriously - why bother if all you are going to do is come on here and b**ch. If you do it too much, your posts are going to start disappearing. FTMFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I got 15 inches from the early Feb storm in 2010, and you got hit by the Feb 9 storm. I remember because you looked foolish after you declared that you would never ever get a storm over four inches ever ever again during one of your little fussy tantrums. Remember my earlier post - this is not going to be a winter for p-ussies. If you don't have the backbone, either grow one or take up another hobby like knitting. Seriously - why bother if all you are going to do is come on here and b**ch. If you do it too much, your posts are going to start disappearing. JamieO, did I ever tell you I love you. <3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 A few more musings from your friendly neighborhood Eskimo: 1.) NAM is not the final word, for that matter none are right now. Don't live and die by ever model run today or tomorrow AM. Look for trends at 500 / 700 / 850 for temperature and energy. 2.) At the worst I see 5", maybe 6" for someone that has good elevation. I do not expect this to be a big storm since the setup is just too progressive. This will probably be the case for most of the winter, dime and quarter events. Glad to see you peeking in and giving us your thoughts...i knew you would, you're lifer here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Thanks, everyone. I just remembered something I did last year that was a good compromise so people don't get in trouble with the staff - a complaint/whining/share the pain thread. I'll start it. That way everyone's happy, the thread isn't clogged and those who want to vent have a place to go. Edit - See here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/30652-the-complaint-department-share-your-winter-pain-here/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 So far for 12Z GFS though 42hrs. H5 not lagging as much and looks almost exactly like the NAM's H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 This'll be a fun storm to watch transpire. This year, any snow any of us get we should be thankful for, no reason to have any real expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 So far for 12Z GFS though 42hrs. H5 not lagging as much and looks almost exactly like the NAM's H5. I'd like some maps please...at work. 500/700/850 is possible. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 GFS NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 This run is a tad NW of last but, still something is funky with H5 to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 When all the GFS ensembles show a miss, then I'll throw in the towel. Until then, I'm sticking with my 20%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 UKMET is about where it was last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 GFS tries to pop two lows, thus everything is strung out. Compare it to the UKMET (another global) which has one center and is further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 GFS tries to pop two lows, thus everything is strung out. Compare it to the UKMET (another global) which has one center and is further NW. I think the GFS is a bit whacky with the H5 gets all sheared apart unlike the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM: Nice solid Vort GFS: Uh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Edit: GFS ENS is NW of OP. By a good bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 NAM: Nice solid Vort GFS: Uh... GFS vort is strung out across a far greater geographical area, with the trough being very positively tilted. NAM, consolidated and more neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 umm.. hi there. Most GFS ENS are big hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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