2001kx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 18Z is an beast. Nice snow for PA. Looks like the GFS ENS members. Next up 18Z GFS will it fold? 18Z is an beast. Nice snow for PA? PA is a big state and the nam gives me 0" - just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 GFS at 18Z is sketchy again. H5 fort looks great but surface really does not match. On to 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 GFS holds its course...not really many swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 From Ellinwood in the mid-Atlantic thread. Should make some of us happy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 18Z is an beast. Nice snow for PA? PA is a big state and the nam gives me 0" - just saying Same here KX....I'm going to be patient though. I have a feeling we'll make it up though with those WAA events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Nogpas get on board. It is game time baby! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 GFS holds its course...not really many swings. It will cave tonight. It always catches the storm first, then loses it and then only to come back to it after all the models models catch on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 GFS is pretty warm at the surface. Freezing line withdrawn back into the plateau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Same here KX....I'm going to be patient though. I have a feeling we'll make it up though with those WAA events. im just teasing eastern...im not expecting much from this if any...so whatever does happen im good! my snow goal this winter is to surpass my largest storm last year of 5" (during the lake effect) if i can manage to beat that i will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 18Z is an beast. Nice snow for PA? PA is a big state and the nam gives me 0" - just saying yeah we all can't win I guess I will take my 0" and like it! We make up for it with WAA events and what inland runner we can get. Might as well let south central and SE PA enjoy it while they can before the SE ridge decides to rampage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Ya, I agree guys, this one isn't ours. I am looking forward to some nice CAD events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Ya, I agree guys, this one isn't ours. I am looking forward to some nice CAD events. The complaining thread is open for a reason. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 The complaining thread is open for a reason. Just saying. How is that a complaint?? It's a fact...and I'm staying optimistic for the rest of the year. We do fairly well in La Nina set ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 How is that a complaint?? It's a fact...and I'm staying optimistic for the rest of the year. We do fairly well in La Nina set ups. It's not a fact...it's your own opinion on the matter. It's one thing to be negative and provide solid analysis of why you are being negative, it's another to simply say "this won't happen because it won't" My hopes aren't too high right now, but we are within reach of some kind of winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It's not a fact...it's your own opinion on the matter. It's one thing to be negative and provide solid analysis of why you are being negative, it's another to simply say "this won't happen because it won't" My hopes aren't too high right now, but we are within reach of some kind of winter weather. Exactly. Has the storm happened yet? No sonit is not a fact yet. Btw 18z gefs once again NW of op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 0z suite phase the wave with the PV, causing Snowmaggedon redux. Bank it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 I think south central PA is in a good spot...the trends in the models today have been our friend! Oh course as usual, all my local METs down here are saying nothing, but rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 I think south central PA is in a good spot...the trends in the models today have been our friend! Oh course as usual, all my local METs down here are saying nothing, but rain... While I fully respect the local on air mets for the trials they went through to get the BS in Meteorology, I do agree with you they have a tendency to be far too conservative WRT snow. 2009 - 2010 and the October 29 event should still be fresh in their memories. But at the same time I do not expect them to go bonkers every time a 60hr+ event presents itself. I just wish a mention of snow would be broadcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Our tv mets are pretty poor with winter event lead-up. Isn't this supposed to be a good year for CAD (lake effect for the northerners?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Would not surprise me to have the numerical models, especially the American suite, "lose" the storm overnight only to bring it back quick tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 From the NYC thread. I'm honking...beep, beep. This might be a high impact event N&W of I-95, not because of the amount but the timing of the event. Thursday morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Hey boys.... First time I've been here in a while. This event is certainly interesting. I like the track on the ukie, maybe adjust it south just a whisker: This would bring a solid advisory snow to areas south of I-80 and east of Route 119. (Most of us) And some areas could approach warning criteria south of Ebensburg-Altoona-Huntingdon-Williamsport. I think a compromise between the 18z nam and 12z ukie would fit my idea perfectly. TM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Hey boys.... First time I've been here in a while. This event is certainly interesting. I like the track on the ukie, maybe adjust it south just a whisker: This would bring a solid advisory snow to areas south of I-80 and east of Route 119. (Most of us) And some areas could approach warning criteria south of Ebensburg-Altoona-Huntingdon-Williamsport. I think a compromise between the 18z nam and 12z ukie would fit my idea perfectly. TM Hey there, I haven't seen you in too long, thanks for the input! Tomorrow should be quite interesting to see how forecasts change from the AM to PM. Finally something to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 From the NYC thread. I'm honking...beep, beep. This might be a high impact event N&W of I-95, not because of the amount but the timing of the event. Thursday morning commute. 6z is morning commute? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 6z is morning commute? Obviously it is not, and my apologies for any confusion my post may have caused. I was trying to extrapolate this image forward by 4 - 6 hours and thinking about what that snow would do to the roads. I just got back from work and am a tad fried, so I think I need to take a break and eat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 Does anyone have a link to those clown maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 How is that a complaint?? It's a fact...and I'm staying optimistic for the rest of the year. We do fairly well in La Nina set ups. You might be too far north. Wait and see though. Ya, I agree guys, this one isn't ours. I am looking forward to some nice CAD events. Same here KX....I'm going to be patient though. I have a feeling we'll make it up though with those WAA events. im just teasing eastern...im not expecting much from this if any...so whatever does happen im good! my snow goal this winter is to surpass my largest storm last year of 5" (during the lake effect) if i can manage to beat that i will be happy. yeah we all can't win I guess I will take my 0" and like it! We make up for it with WAA events and what inland runner we can get. Might as well let south central and SE PA enjoy it while they can before the SE ridge decides to rampage. I have this funny feeling you all get nailed while I am trying not to fall on the half inch of ice covering my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 You might be too far north. Wait and see though. I have this funny feeling you all get nailed while I am trying not to fall on the half inch of ice covering my yard. Zero chance you get ZR, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Zero chance you get ZR, IMO. Sorry, tired as Eskimo Joe. I meant rest of the year. I learned to dread Ninas after the ice festival that was the 2008-2009 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Does anyone have a link to those clown maps? Looks like a FSU product but Ryan Maue's site is down for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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