Atomixwx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 CTP is talking WSW for later and the local on-air "meteorologists" in town here haven't even so much as discussed the possibility of anything more than "possibly changing over to a period of wet snow"? I know you don't want to be an alarmist or cry "wolf", but how is this not irresponsible on their behalf? Can any of you mets or forecasters address this real fast? Perhaps this should go in the complaints thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 the cutoff on the nam nakes me physically ill lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 If I had to guess the numbers...ABE to MDT .3...AVP .2....UNV, IPT .05...and HGR like .4? Fail. You really should never post Euro qpf numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Ctp taking about wsw for later. 6z gfs came north and will continue to do so at 12z. Noticed that. The top two models, euro and ukmet, give us hits. Still not biting yet but good signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 We're getting into the SREF's range and I don't think most will like the 3z version. Hard right? Following the baro layer laid out by the approaching C front. Most of the 700mb moisture is gone by the time we get enough cold air to make anything other than a slop storm for most, if not all. Elev's will help but still result in a wet layer of white with ratios likely to be quite low as a result. So all those QPF outputs will struggle to yield a 10:1 outcome - thus accums will be very light. My call for MDT = 2" tops, eastern third of the CWA not much hope, highest elev's in the App spine through PA (mostly south of I-80) may see as much as 4" (which HPC paints in their maps). I'd love to be understating things and end up with enough white to warrant a "sick" day on Thurs to go and track whitetails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 GFS ensembles made a significant shift north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Noticed that. The top two models, euro and ukmet, give us hits. Still not biting yet but good signs. 2-3" for UNV seems about right at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 2-3" for UNV seems about right at this time That's what I am thinking right now but still not sure about this one. The early Dec snows we've got last decade remind me a lot of this and we ended up getting more than expected. On the other hand there's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 pretty warm this am, 55! currently light rain. edit to add, i think we have been above average in temps 17 out of the last 18 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 pretty warm this am, 55! currently light rain. edit to add, i think we have been above average in temps 17 out of the last 18 days. Already getting the "how can it snow its so warm right now" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Already getting the "how can it snow its so warm right now" lol Yep, me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Already getting the "how can it snow its so warm right now" lol I killed everybody who gave me that load of crap back in October. It's your fault if you're still hearing this retardery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I killed everybody who gave me that load of crap back in October. It's your fault if you're still hearing this retardery. Well, someone did say to me about how fast weather can change so he's believing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I killed everybody who gave me that load of crap back in October. It's your fault if you're still hearing this retardery. Really? I just used this guy -----> http://iroh.org/screencaps/ep61/ep61-355.png 52.5° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Really? I just used this guy -----> http://iroh.org/scre...61/ep61-355.png 52.5° I'm much more "hands on" approach when it comes to the mentally defective. The day I outsource a beating is the day America dies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 For the most part, this is a map of how many climate divisions we have in PA. The red outlines are the general areas where the weather is drastically different, but of course is subject to individual patterns. The black/orange line is the general outline for Nor Easter type systems. I have a few different outcomes with the black/orange outline for mainly the diffence between eastern sliders, closer tracks to the coast, and benchmark. Now I realise the Nor Easters can throw precip further back towards the west but the orange outlines dictate where the best likelyhood and chance of occurance greater than 4" of snow. In the blue shadings is where the greatest likelyhood of Lake Effect events set up, and I know I left ouf the laurals and Pittsburgh areas because I'm not exactly sure where the boundaries typically set up for them. This is why the most of the posters outside these orange lines try to tell you guys were aren't favored for Nor Easter type of events, not really complaining. I made 13 general climate sections within PA, and I'm sure I could make some adjustments and you guys could help me out with that. Out of all the general climate sections I made, I feel bad for 6,7,9 and 7,9 is by far the worst place to live if you are a weather enthusiast because you are just on the outside of lake effect events and miss the most of Nor Easters and borderline on WAA events. My ex-wife is from Ridgway, I'd say you're incorrect about parts of 7 - they often do pretty well in lake effect. Elk County isn't exactly a snow desert. Same with zone 9, especially western half. Meadville sometimes does better than Erie for snow. They average 70 inches of snow. You tell someone in southern Crawford County they don't get lake effect and they'd pat you on the head and say "You're cute, kid." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I'm much more "hands on" approach when it comes to the mentally defective. The day I outsource a beating is the day America dies. Stop threatening our northcentral posters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 That just made me lol Jamie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 That just made me lol Jamie We need something to lessen the pre 12Z NAM tension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The thing that worries me about recent model trends is temperatures. The main storm develops so quickly that 1. it's still Wednesday afternoon or evening when it gets here and 2. cold air hasn't had a lot of time to filter in. Indeed, the Euro has us kinda borderline with temps until after the precip is gone. It's much better with the total precip, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Noticed that. The top two models, euro and ukmet, give us hits. Still not biting yet but good signs. The UK has been steady for 24 hours now. The Euro has come around. The GEM is almost identical. And the GFS ensembles are in line as well. I still like my call from yesterday of 2 to 4 inches south of I-80 from Clearfield east. 6 inches or more from Huntingdon to ABE southward, above 500 feet. Laurels will see some decent snow as well with the terrain, probably high-end advisory. The +NAO should allow this to come further NW compared to the op run of the GFS (for those of you that like to look at it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The thing that worries me about recent model trends is temperatures. The main storm develops so quickly that 1. it's still Wednesday afternoon or evening when it gets here and 2. cold air hasn't had a lot of time to filter in. Indeed, the Euro has us kinda borderline with temps until after the precip is gone. It's much better with the total precip, though. Indeed. Elevation-dependent like the Halloween storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 question, after this system, will we still be seasonably warm or will go more seasonal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 question, after this system, will we still be seasonably warm or will go more seasonal? I'm thinking we stay seasonable for 7 - 10 days. After that I really do not know, as I am not adept at forecasting beyond 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 My guess right now is that the best snows are headed roughly for the I-81 corridor, maybe just west, where there could be a narrow 4-8" or so stripe. The Susq. Valley could be a sweet spot for most of the heavy stuff, and this is a dynamic system where there could be some surprises. A 10" report or two wouldn't shock me. West of there into JST/AOO/UNV I would expect maybe a 2-5" type of storm, more if the Euro/UK are right and tick this west further. In this kind of a pattern where there are few if any limitations for a low trending west, it's certainly possible. Good luck to all you guys out there while I drown in my mild rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 ESKIMO JOE: Every time I see your sig I get frightened. I dread the hiss-boom sound, and fear I'm about to hear it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 ESKIMO JOE: Every time I see your sig I get frightened. I dread the hiss-boom sound, and fear I'm about to hear it. OT I know, but I do love Minecraft. Especially when you come across a snow biome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 The wow factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Still think qpf will be more west based on what I see here. Look at that Vort and look at that low. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 That's an insane run. Anyone want to weigh in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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