Itunis Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Wow at your temp. I'm currently at 36F here in extreme north central pa. Fog and drizzle here in the north central mountains tonight. Hoping the storm trends just at bit more (50 miles) to the NW. Officially 45 here in State College, so you can see the cold air is filtering south. More of a NW trend and we'll have more mixing issues...it's tough to get everyone in on an event when there is so little cold air available from the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 42.9 degrees here in SE Lycoming county. Can't say I hate this relative warmth taking the pooch out! This forum is really distracting when trying to write papers lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 over 60 here.... what are the odds of flooding rains into tomorrow afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 61 here atm....going to be our high for the day...10 degrees higher than progged fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Do you have a link for those ensemble maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Do you have a link for those ensemble maps? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 61 here atm....going to be our high for the day...10 degrees higher than progged fwiw A whole 9 deg cooler over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Front is closing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 http://raleighwx.ame...com/models.html Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Any thoughts Mag? Here they come in the form of a map. The maps not really as crazy as it might look. I anticipate a pretty decent area of Central PA to see generally 3-6 inches of snow. The Laurels and the Poconos will probably see more like 6-10 inches of snow. I have the Laurels pegged as the region that will likely see some of the highest PA amounts from this system.. and I wouldn't be surprised to see the highest locations see a foot or so. I extended a dashed zone where some 6+ inch amounts might show up here and there, like on the Brush/Bald Eagle and Tussey ridges, Seven Mountains, and Philipsburg in extreme western Centre just up the road from Jamie. Most difficult part is the Lower Sus Valley, where getting things turned over in a timely fashion is still up for debate. I have noticed on SREF snow accum probs that they really decrease between the Laurels and Pocono's likely giving the hat tip to a later changeover. Put the 3 inch line pretty much over Harrisburg. Kept southeastern 1 inch line NW of Philly (though I do anticipate philly changing over at the end and perhaps getting a coating). Went wide with northwestern 1 inch line to account for latest trends a bit NW with QPF. As far as headlines, CTP is currently set up with its watches in high elevation counties to throw in a widespread advisory later along the heavy snow axis..most likely for snow of the 3-5" variety. Will be interesting to see if they expand any watches/warnings to any other counties. Cambria would be a good candidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 .49" Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Here they come in the form of a map. The maps not really as crazy as it might look. I anticipate a pretty decent area of Central PA to see generally 3-6 inches of snow. The Laurels and the Poconos will probably see more like 6-10 inches of snow. I have the Laurels pegged as the region that will likely see some of the highest PA amounts from this system.. and I wouldn't be surprised to see the highest locations see a foot or so. I extended a dashed zone where some 6+ inch amounts might show up here and there, like on the Brush/Bald Eagle and Tussey ridges, Seven Mountains, and Philipsburg in extreme western Centre just up the road from Jamie. Most difficult part is the Lower Sus Valley, where getting things turned over in a timely fashion is still up for debate. I have noticed on SREF snow accum probs that they really decrease between the Laurels and Pocono's likely giving the hat tip to a later changeover. Put the 3 inch line pretty much over Harrisburg. Kept southeastern 1 inch line NW of Philly (though I do anticipate philly changing over at the end and perhaps getting a coating). Went wide with northwestern 1 inch line to account for latest trends a bit NW with QPF. As far as headlines, CTP is currently set up with its watches in high elevation counties to throw in a widespread advisory later along the heavy snow axis..most likely for snow of the 3-5" variety. Will be interesting to see if they expand any watches/warnings to any other counties. Cambria would be a good candidate. Lol, I very much like your map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Here they come in the form of a map. The maps not really as crazy as it might look. I anticipate a pretty decent area of Central PA to see generally 3-6 inches of snow. The Laurels and the Poconos will probably see more like 6-10 inches of snow. I have the Laurels pegged as the region that will likely see some of the highest PA amounts from this system.. and I wouldn't be surprised to see the highest locations see a foot or so. I extended a dashed zone where some 6+ inch amounts might show up here and there, like on the Brush/Bald Eagle and Tussey ridges, Seven Mountains, and Philipsburg in extreme western Centre just up the road from Jamie. Most difficult part is the Lower Sus Valley, where getting things turned over in a timely fashion is still up for debate. I have noticed on SREF snow accum probs that they really decrease between the Laurels and Pocono's likely giving the hat tip to a later changeover. Put the 3 inch line pretty much over Harrisburg. Kept southeastern 1 inch line NW of Philly (though I do anticipate philly changing over at the end and perhaps getting a coating). Went wide with northwestern 1 inch line to account for latest trends a bit NW with QPF. As far as headlines, CTP is currently set up with its watches in high elevation counties to throw in a widespread advisory later along the heavy snow axis..most likely for snow of the 3-5" variety. Will be interesting to see if they expand any watches/warnings to any other counties. Cambria would be a good candidate. Almost looks like mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 48.7, should be about our high for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I was discussing this in the Pittsburgh thread...KPIT is handling this horribly, IMO. Take a look at Mag's map. JST and Ligoneer are in or near his 6-10 zone. State College has Johnstown at about 3-6 inches, with 100% POP's for Wednesday and Wednesday night...seems reasonable. Here is the Ligoneer forecast, in the Laurel's mind you, from KPIT. Overnight: A slight chance of showers. Areas of dense fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 34. West wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.Wednesday: A chance of rain showers before 5pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Northwest wind between 7 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Wednesday Night: A chance of snow showers, mainly before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. West wind between 7 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible I mean, that is wretched, IMO. That are is probably looking at a great chance of a warning level event, and you are that far out to lunch??? I don't get it. The Pittsburgh metro forecast is just as bad. Not even a mention of any precip at all in either the AFD or the point and click. They did this on the October event as well...kept saying nothing, and then, all of a sudden, a lot of the metro got 2 inches of snow. Poor, poor job by KPIT, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 42.2 degrees...nice night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Nice temperature contrast across the state... temps as of midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I was discussing this in the Pittsburgh thread...KPIT is handling this horribly, IMO. Take a look at Mag's map. JST and Ligoneer are in or near his 6-10 zone. State College has Johnstown at about 3-6 inches, with 100% POP's for Wednesday and Wednesday night...seems reasonable. Here is the Ligoneer forecast, in the Laurel's mind you, from KPIT. I mean, that is wretched, IMO. That are is probably looking at a great chance of a warning level event, and you are that far out to lunch??? I don't get it. The Pittsburgh metro forecast is just as bad. Not even a mention of any precip at all in either the AFD or the point and click. They did this on the October event as well...kept saying nothing, and then, all of a sudden, a lot of the metro got 2 inches of snow. Poor, poor job by KPIT, IMO. Pit had its mountain portions of fayette and westmoreland in Winter Storm Warnings this afternoon I thought. I can't dial up a point and click with more than an inch or two. The top of Laurel mountain of all places has little or no accums for both wed and wed night in the point and click. Did they drop the warnings? And if they did...wtf?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Pit had its mountain portions of fayette and westmoreland in Winter Storm Warnings this afternoon I thought. I can't dial up a point and click with more than an inch or two. The top of Laurel mountain of all places has little or no accums for both wed and wed night in the point and click. Did they drop the warnings? And if they did...wtf?? I don't think they ever did...they did for their Maryland counties, but not for any PA counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Any word how the UKMET looked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 You are correct. They mention WV and Maryland but not Pa in their discussion. What I find odd is the Canadian has decent precip for Western Pa but mostly rain changing to snow late when the precip is ending and the heavier swath of snow is in the mountains and Altoona,Johnstown area. Regardless, Nws Pitt is going to have to give us a new forcast of rain showers changing to snow showers late at least. I am guessing a grassy area accumulation around greater pit. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html I don't think they ever did...they did for their Maryland counties, but not for any PA counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I don't think they ever did...they did for their Maryland counties, but not for any PA counties. Hmm i think your right, at any rate I really didn't realize that they had such low amounts there in their grids. I looked at Laurel Summit, a location that I anticipate might have one of the higher totals in PA from this storm.. and they had "little or no accum" for both wed and wed night. Jennerstown just off the mountain in Somerset, has 4-7 in an updated point and click and 5-9 in Somerset and Boswell. That's pretty wild haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Any word how the UKMET looked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 That can't be just 6 hours of precip can it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 WOW!!! Probably too warm though?? Euswx...that would be an insane rate for you if it would at least be borderline....it'll be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Not sure if anyone mentioned it but, JB says he is going with the NAM. Says GFS has phasing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 41.7 degrees....raining lightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 57 degrees across the river from HBG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I wish they offered 6 hour precip at 30 than I could tally it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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