MAG5035 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Not sure if anyone mentioned it but, JB says he is going with the NAM. Says GFS has phasing issues. Boy i'd love to see the Euro come out with something along the lines of the UKMET. Not sure what to think about the amounts that JB has on his map. I personally think he's probably a category too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Any EURO word guys?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Any EURO word guys?? Thus far, its further west but warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Thus far, its further west but warmer. Well...I like the sound of that, haha. Unfortunately, for me to get anything, you guys will have to get the shaft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Any EURO word guys?? About the same as last run. Still get 2-4". Thing about the euro is. 1. Usually too warm. 2. Usually to dry. Within 24 hrs not the model of choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 What kind of totals is it putting out zach. Looking at the graphic earthlight had up looks drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 What kind of totals is it putting out zach. Looking at the graphic earthlight had up looks drier. Not sure gives you 2-4" of snow though. As I noted Euro is not a model to be looking at this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Heading to bed...good luck to everyone! Won't be back until tmrw night...have 2 exams tmrw..bleh. Current conditions...41.2 degrees...light mist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 What kind of totals is it putting out zach. Looking at the graphic earthlight had up looks drier. Euro had at least the majority of about 0.75 as snow for ipt this go around..0.3 of rain beforehand. This run got Pit and Latrobe involved (0.8 for Latrobe!). Temps/changeovers gonna be a pain in the butt. Harrisburg has a whopping single 6 hour period of 0.71 of precip with temps supportive of snow or a changover to snow within that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Euro had at least the majority of about 0.75 as snow for ipt this go around..0.3 of rain beforehand. This run got Pit and Latrobe involved (0.8 for Latrobe!). Temps/changeovers gonna be a pain in the butt. Harrisburg has a whopping single 6 hour period of 0.71 of precip with temps supportive of snow or a changover to snow within that period. 1-2" per hr thundersnow maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 1-2" per hr thundersnow maybe? haha that 6 hr period def has that look of "spectacle".. thats for sure. THU 06Z 08-DEC 1.3 -4.6 1009 91 66 0.71 543 536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 haha that 6 hr period def has that look of "spectacle".. thats for sure. THU 06Z 08-DEC 1.3 -4.6 1009 91 66 0.71 543 536 Should be interesting. I am waiting up for 6Z NAM then passing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 New CTP thoughts: Updated map as of about 1:30am Updated near term: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... AT 06Z..SFC OBS AND RUC DATA SUGGEST WK WAVE OF LOW PRES IS BTWN SEG AND RDG...WITH TRAILING WAVY FRONTAL BNDRY TRAILING TO THE SW ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. AREAS OF DZ AND LGT RAIN WILL PERSIST IN MOST AREAS PRIOR TO 08Z BEFORE RAIN SHIELD SURGING NEWD ACRS WV OVERSPREADS THE SRN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA. SATL ANAL AND TRENDS SHOW THE MID-UPPER LOW TRACKING EWD ACRS ERN OK/NE TX/WRN AR BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY AS IT PHASES WITH 150KT JET ACRS THE SE U.S. WV LOOPS SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING TWD THE LWR TN VLY WITH DOWNSTREAM IR ENHANCEMENT/COOLING CLOUD TOPS ALONG THE S-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FM TN TO WV WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER LVL DIFL. RDR TRENDS APPEAR TO BE AHEAD OF NEAR TERM MDL GUID WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYS AND DEEP WAA OUT AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH. RDR TRENDS ALSO SUGGEST THE QPF AXIS MAY BE SETTING UP A LITTLE FURTHER N THAN DEPICTED BY THE GUID. HOURLY TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S BEHIND THE FRONT OVR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NW MTNS...BUT READINGS SHOULD STAY ABV THE FZG MARK. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH 12Z ARE OVR THE SRN TIER WITH 6-HR QPF AMTS LKLY IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE PER MDL BLEND. Not quite sure of there being a gaping hole in snow totals in true central PA, map def seems to be favoring what the 21z SREFs were doing with snow probs. Should be an interesting day later today. Given what the ECMWF just threw out, this axis might be a lil thin on the nw side too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 New CTP thoughts: Updated map as of about 1:30am Updated near term: Not quite sure of there being a gaping hole in snow totals in true central PA, map def seems to be favoring what the 21z SREFs were doing with snow probs. Should be an interesting day later today. Given what the ECMWF just threw out, this axis might be a lil too southeast too. CTP hugs the SREFS. Plus I don't see the storm moving faster. Looks right on track to me so far. 0Z NAM had some precip coming in about 4 a.m. looks about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 When they pull trigger on ADV? Like 230-3 a.m.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Starting to get in RUC range. S.Central about to get popped with 1" rates starting around 6-7 p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 CTP just issued a Fringe Warning for Potter county woooohooo .2" baby! Good luck guys, I want plenty of obs from all my PA weather buds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 6Z NAM is just.. ooohh dear.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Advisories should be out sometime in the next hour. Latest RUC for KUNV... changeover by about 5pm and by 7pm, looks to be some heavy snow at times. Omega is ripping in a pretty saturated snow growth zone... 6Z NAM is just.. ooohh dear.... Warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 48 and moderate rain in the harrisburg area. was 58 last night at 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 44.6 here in Port Matilda. Was 46.3 at 6:00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 JB back at AccuWeather? Look at that snow map: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/snow-coming-north-carolina-to/58693 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Just wondering are the temps matching up with what the models are showing? 42.8 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I don't see anything wrong about that map, at least in our area. Maybe even somewhat underdone in the higher elevations. Anyway, it will be all about temperatures regarding how much snow people see. We have plenty of moisture. Below are the 7am temperatures and the latest 12z 850mb freezing line based on soundings. Compared to the modeling at the same time (6z NAM)... Looks like the actual observations are a smidge colder than the NAM's 6 hour forecast. Good news for snow changeover in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Very nice post Jmister Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Still 50f here in Wormleysburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 jmister, wow, great post and that's interesting. I was surprised at the 6-12 stripe. Everything else seems to be on track. The only thing that bugs me a bit is the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Looks like the actual observations are a smidge colder than the NAM's 6 hour forecast. Good news for snow changeover in my mind. I took a look at the actual soundings out of Pittsburgh, Albany, and Buffalo, and they weren't actually all that far off the NAM's 'forecast'. The NAM had Albany maybe 0.5°C too warm, Pittsburgh maybe 0.2°C too warm, and Buffalo about 0.2°C too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Jminster...great maps. Nice to see we are a pinch cooler than modeled. I was looking back randomly for the link to the first map w/ actual temps and cant find it. Might you be able to hook me up with that link? Thanks much. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Jminster...great maps. Nice to see we are a pinch cooler than modeled. I was looking back randomly for the link to the first map w/ actual temps and cant find it. Might you be able to hook me up with that link? Thanks much. Nut Thanks. I got this from a screen shot of a program called weatherscope which I actually learned about from easternuswx. A great program that lets you visualize all the NWS observations, among other things. You can view maps like this for any time all the way back 30-40 years and make loops too. I highly recommend it to any weather nerd out there! weatherscope: http://www.mesonet.org/index.php/weather/weatherscope/ It takes a little getting used to the UI, but just play around with it and you'll get the hang of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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