CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 I know it's really a simple way of looking at it..lol, but you get the idea. January wasn't really any better than December. We did have some ridging in the NPAC, but the vortex in the Bering Sea flooded Canada with warmer air. We also had a good se ridge too. It wasn't until February when we got a better -NAO and the Bering Sea vortex was replaced with positive height anomalies. But don't ask the coastline.....that didn't do jack for us. Everything was kind of ill-timed. On the other hand, you have a month like January 2005 when the teleconnections before the big blizzard weren't great...yet it seemed every storm somehow found a way to be timed so perfectly, that when it looked like we were getting ready to flip to a mix...the precip ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 But don't ask the coastline.....that didn't do jack for us. Everything was kind of ill-timed. On the other hand, you have a month like January 2005 when the teleconnections before the big blizzard weren't great...yet it seemed every storm somehow found a way to be timed so perfectly, that when it looked like we were getting ready to flip to a mix...the precip ended. been unfairly busy today what did the Euro monthlies show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 been unfairly busy today what did the Euro monthlies show? Still ugly, especially south of NYC...but they did cool down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Still ugly, especially south of NYC...but they did cool down a bit. thanks...I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 And have already seen a once in a winter lifetime in 2009-2010 lol I don't remember living a lifetime once that winter, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 It could be worse...it could be December 2006 and first half of January 2007...those actually occurred in winter months and lasted 6-7 weeks, lol. I hope that is a distant memory, What an ugly winter here that was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Roller coaster that averages out to way above normal. That looks to continue. I do not think snow is discounted out of the interior elevated spots during our brief cooler periods...but probably areas like where Joe is, they have little to no shot in this type of pattern...but climo says that is basically true in November anyway. But we are unlikely to see a parade of winter threats in this type of pattern...that is different than maybe getting a rogue interior advisory event if we cash in on a transient cold shot. We are in a favorable pattern for big warm ups after our brief cool shots. I do not see much changing that long wave pattern over the next 2-3 weeks. I've worked outside for decades now and I've yet to see Winter be toothless. Some years are more vicious than others but they all sting. The way I see it is we're well above average on the snowfall front and that's really all I care about. This Winter may well feature temps that average out AOA normal but I'd bet my bottom dollar that seasonal snowfall totals for much of New England will finish well above normal. I can't think of anything more futile than obsessing over mild temps in mid Nov and their bearing on the Winter to come. I follow the LR forecasts and as near as I can tell they are almost useless. To me, weather is largely governed by the laws of chaos and as of yet I don't think chaos is forecastable. Near term, great strides, long term, not so much. 2-3 weeks puts us at the end of November/beginning of Dec, the perfect time for the hammer to drop. This pattern has certainly brought out the worst in people the last week or so. For me personally the promises from so many of a cold and snowy December and then not seeing that come to fruition has been frustrating. Fortunately we've had crushing snows already,,and there's 3 legit shots for some of us over the next week or so. Even a little taste between mild ups is better than nothing as it tickles our fancies as Tom Turkey tickles tushies next week Are you living in the future? Here in Realityville it's 11/15 and we do not yet know what December holds. The rubber band always snaps..always. We don't la di dah to +5 3 month departures. Patience. Ahh, the voice of experience. Patience is truly a virtue. Thankfully I'm blessed. Some of these droopy dog posts will be fun to trot out at a later, snowier date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I've worked outside for decades now and I've yet to see Winter be toothless. Some years are more vicious than others but they all sting. The way I see it is we're well above average on the snowfall front and that's really all I care about. This Winter may well feature temps that average out AOA normal but I'd bet my bottom dollar that seasonal snowfall totals for much of New England will finish well above normal. I can't think of anything more futile than obsessing over mild temps in mid Nov and their bearing on the Winter to come. I follow the LR forecasts and as near as I can tell they are almost useless. To me, weather is largely governed by the laws of chaos and as of yet I don't think chaos is forecastable. Near term, great strides, long term, not so much. 2-3 weeks puts us at the end of November/beginning of Dec, the perfect time for the hammer to drop. I don't think any of the reasonable posts have said that the winter will feature this type of pattern from start to finish. That would be kind of foolish. Though '01-'02 was pretty pathetic almost wire to wire. The focus has been on the next 2-3 weeks. We'll see how those ideas verify when we get to the end of the first week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 I don't think any of the reasonable posts have said that the winter will feature this type of pattern from start to finish. That would be kind of foolish. Though '01-'02 was pretty pathetic almost wire to wire. The focus has been on the next 2-3 weeks. We'll see how those ideas verify when we get to the end of the first week of December. Time will tell. We average 5" or so for November here and I think there is a very real chance that we'll see that before the month's end despite this hostile pattern. In the meantime I will put the mild weather to good use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 A bit off topic but I had booked marked Conn Light and Powers website to watch the numbers of people without power. I had not checked it in awhile. Tonight there are 18 customers without power out of 1.2 million. Just a tremendous amount of work the past couple of weeks if you think about it considering the tree and wire damage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMiser Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 JAMSTEC model should be out any day now. I doubt it will change the winter forecast made back in oct: looks like they are getting the summer and winter right this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 next person who roots for a major OCT snow gets banned, that's the only answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 next person who roots for a major OCT snow gets banned, that's the only answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 next person who roots for a major OCT snow gets banned, that's the only answer 1979...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 next person who roots for a major OCT snow gets banned, that's the only answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 This pattern caused a very snowy period and look at this pattern. Looks crappy right? Hint: look near AK. That ridge allowed enough cold to keep the coast mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 This pattern caused a very snowy period and look at this pattern. Looks crappy right? Hint: look near AK. That ridge allowed enough cold to keep the coast mostly snow. We had a few gradient type storms in there along with the retrograde 12/26 storm. Its all about keeping the low level cold available. It was an overall warm period, but we cashed in because the cold was never that far away. When there is no hope of getting cold in here, thats when we have disasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2011 Author Share Posted November 16, 2011 We had a few gradient type storms in there along with the retrograde 12/26 storm. Its all about keeping the low level cold available. It was an overall warm period, but we cashed in because the cold was never that far away. When there is no hope of getting cold in here, thats when we have disasters. Yep, that's why I posted it. It looks crappy at first, but the low level cold was there. However it also shows you how important the -EPO can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 The thing I love about this pattern is the abundance of cold in Canada, even eastern sections. there's widespread -10 to -30 deg C 850s throughout the entire country... Snow pack should build nicely over the next 2-3 weeks there, especially in central sections with these cutters. Just look at the 84 hr NAM... Unlimited cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 The thing I love about this pattern is the abundance of cold in Canada, even eastern sections. there's widespread -10 to -30 deg C 850s throughout the entire country... Snow pack should build nicely over the next 2-3 weeks there, especially in central sections with these cutters. Just look at the 84 hr NAM... Unlimited cold Yes but that will be wiped out beyond this week. That is part of the bad pattern developing further...the cold in Canada gets torched away except for extreme NW Canada. That is why we need the EPO to go back negative at some point down the road in early or mid December. This is a big difference compared to what we saw in the progs two weeks ago right after the Oct snowbomb. We knew it would be warm but thought the cold in Canada would prime us for something late this month...then we saw the progs for later this month and the cold gets wiped out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Yep, that's why I posted it. It looks crappy at first, but the low level cold was there. However it also shows you how important the -EPO can be. Ginxy would love that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Yes but that will be wiped out beyond this week. That is part of the bad pattern developing further...the cold in Canada gets torched away except for extreme NW Canada. That is why we need the EPO to go back negative at some point down the road in early or mid December. This is a big difference compared to what we saw in the progs two weeks ago right after the Oct snowbomb. We knew it would be warm but thought the cold in Canada would prime us for something late this month...then we saw the progs for later this month and the cold gets wiped out. so in a not so rosy case scenario....these transient cold shots were gettin now....could be milder in two weeks (relative to ave) since the cold air in canada won't even be available. and people who can't take anything negative wx related relax....this is not end of winter post....it is looking at things from a rationale and not far fetch'd stand point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 perhaps Albuquerque doesn't look so bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 perhaps Albuquerque doesn't look so bad... it should be a fun ride pull your 84 jersey's out diane what elevation will you be at there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 so in a not so rosy case scenario....these transient cold shots were gettin now....could be milder in two weeks (relative to ave) since the cold air in canada won't even be available. and people who can't take anything negative wx related relax....this is not end of winter post....it is looking at things from a rationale and not far fetch'd stand point Well two weeks from now, climo makes everything colder...so you can still get a Scooter sneaky winter wx event, esp in the interior in the cold snaps. But yeah, the arctic air gets wiped out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 it should be a fun ride pull your 84 jersey's out diane what elevation will you be at there i don't shine shoes, i don't tape ankles, i don't cash checks... 25% of the work area is above 8000ft...i want to say i'll be at 6000-9000ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 Well two weeks from now, climo makes everything colder...so you can still get a Scooter sneaky winter wx event, esp in the interior in the cold snaps. But yeah, the arctic air gets wiped out. is this a new term? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 We are so grateful we don't live in the midatlantic where you have nothing but 28-35 days straight of warmth ahead. Here we have some cold, some mild sprinkled in with a few snow chances every couple of days You wont see a flake for weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 You wont see a flake for weeks You are underestimating by a long shot...he'll get a couple flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 16, 2011 Share Posted November 16, 2011 http://t.co/Y4wVEv7Q Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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