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Dec 11-13 MW/Lakes/OV snow event part 4


Hoosier

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MSP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

247 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2010

DISCUSSION

MAJOR WINTER STORM REMAINS ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE ECMWF AND GFS TODAY OFFER A VERY CONSISTENT SOLUTION ON THE

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN IA

ON SATURDAY. THE 15Z SREF DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO AS WELL. ALTHOUGH

THE TRACK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT...THERE HAS BEEN A 1 OR 2 MILLIBAR

DROP IN THE FORECAST PRESSURE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY OVER NORTHERN IA.

THIS SUBTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS OR SO HAS RESULTED IN A

MUCH STRONGER WIND FIELD IN THE LOW LEVELS. BUFKIT PROFILES FOR

KRWF AND KFRM SHOW WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS AT 200 FEET BY SATURDAY

MORNING WITH MID LEVEL MOMENTUM IN THE MID 30 KNOT RANGE AND TOP

OF THE CHANNEL REACHING 45 KNOTS. GIVEN THE SNOW WE ARE EXPECTING

AND THE WIND...THE WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN

HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING WITH THE ADVISORY OVER

WEST CENTRAL MN UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING AS WELL. THE WINTER

STORM WARNING CONTINUES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLIZZARD

WARNINGS.

WE CONTINUE TODAY WITH INCREDIBLE UPGLIDE AND ADIABATIC OMEGA

DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY

MORNING HOURS. SNOW COULD BE INTO THE TWIN CITIES AFTER 9 PM

TONIGHT. ONE PROBLEM THAT EXISTS DURING THE NIGHT IS A WARM LAYER

PROGGED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN. BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE FREEZING

RAIN EARLY ON...CHANGING TO SNOW TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HENCE...MAINTAINED

A SMALL AREA OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THREE TIERS OF

COUNTIES.

BY SATURDAY...CROSS SECTION DATA SHOWS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS

OCCURRING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FROM SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH THE

TWIN CITIES AND INTO NORTHERN WI. THIS FRONTOGENESIS IS IN THE

PRIME DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WITH A LARGE AREA OF NEAR NEGATIVE TO

NEGATIVE EPV ABOVE. THE AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION IS ESSENTIALLY

STRAIGHT UP FROM 700 TO 300 MB. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT IS A REAL

TROUBLE MAKER ON SATURDAY IS THE POTENT PV ANOMALY PROGGED INTO

SOUTHERN MN BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z...RIGHT ALONG THE DEFORMATION

ZONE. THIS IS ALL OCCURRING WITH MIXING RATIOS IN THE 2 TO 3 G/JG

RANGE WITH 2.5 IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...NOT

HOLDING BACK ON THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE FORCING...INSTABILITY AND PV

ANOMALY. LATEST SNOW TOTAL GRIDS HAVE 12 TO 14 INCHES FOR THE TWIN

CITIES WITH 12 TO 16 INCHES IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE 16 INCH

AMOUNTS ARE IN THE RICE LAKE AND LADYSMITH AREAS. ELSEWHERE...10

INCH AMOUNTS CURVE FROM MORA THROUGH ST CLOUD...WILLMAR TO MANKATO

WITH 6 INCH AMOUNTS FROM ALEXANDRIA THROUGH CANBY TO FAIRMONT AND

ALBERT LEA.

THE STORM WILL MOVE AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO POTENTIAL

WIND CHILL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS. RIGHT NOW...PROGGED WIND CHILLS BY

SUNDAY MORNING ARE IN THE -35 TO -40 DEGREE RANGE IN THE MN CWA

WITH -20 TO -30 DEGREES IN THE WI CWA. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DEAL

WITH THIS.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM CST SATURDAY FOR

CHIPPEWA-LAC QUI PARLE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-STEVENS-SWIFT-

YELLOW MEDICINE.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY

NIGHT FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-LE SUEUR- MARTIN-

NICOLLET-RICE-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST

SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANOKA-BENTON-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-

HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-

POPE-RAMSEY-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-STEARNS-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY

FOR GOODHUE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST

SATURDAY NIGHT FOR DOUGLAS-MORRISON-TODD.

WI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY

FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-

ST. CROIX.

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The only sad thing about missing out on a system like this is to then watch the lake belts get clobbered again. However, i will not be complaining because this rain means my local pond gets "flooded" and then with all the cold air coming down refreezes thumbsupsmileyanim.gif . some good pond hockey days await

It's not a lock that it's going to be rain for us, although the 18z NAM looks a bit warmer than its 12z cousin.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH

337 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010

OHZ010>014-020>023-033-089-PAZ001>003-110500-

/O.NEW.KCLE.WS.A.0005.101212T1800Z-101216T0100Z/

LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-MEDINA-SUMMIT-

PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-MAHONING-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-

SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LORAIN...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON...

JEFFERSON...MEDINA...AKRON...RAVENNA...WARREN...YOUNGSTOWN...

ASHTABULA...ERIE...EDINBORO...MEADVILLE

337 PM EST FRI DEC 10 2010

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES

REGION THIS WEEKEND. IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM VERY COLD AIR

WILL ARRIVE ON GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE

WILL BEGIN BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED

ACROSS AN AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM OBERLIN TO MEDINA TO AROUND

YOUNGSTOWN. AFTER THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINS MONDAY MORNING IT

WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL

TOTALS ACROSS ALL OF THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE A FOOT OR MORE

THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE USUAL HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHEAST

OHIO INTO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA COULD SEE 2 OR MORE FEET OF

SNOWFALL. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND

DRIFTING OF THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WIND GUSTS

MAY BE AS HIGH AS 5O MPH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THESE WINDS

WILL ALSO ASSIST IN KEEPING WIND CHILLS IN A RANGE FROM ZERO TO 15

DEGREES BELOW ZERO THROUGH TUESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU

ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING

WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR

THE LOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE

WARNINGS.

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oh id still love for it snow. I am slightly concerned even if it shows snow about the lake temperature. Ive looked online and all i could find is the NWS water temp for lake ontario which is stil in the 42-44 range. Im assuming thats why all the snow maps put out so far show the golden horseshoe in the donut of low accum?

It's not a lock that it's going to be rain for us, although the 18z NAM looks a bit warmer than its 12z cousin.

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ILX already has a WWA so I assume LOT will too

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL

300 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2010

DISCUSSION

ISSUED 300 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2010

WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS WEEKEND...WITH STRONG

WINDS...BITTERLY COLD WIND-CHILLS...AND LIGHT SNOW.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA/WYOMING WILL AMPLIFY AND

TRACK INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT...ALLOWING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO

ORGANIZE ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. AS THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER

EASTWARD...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO SOUTHERN

WISCONSIN BY SATURDAY EVENING. HEAVIEST SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL

DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

FURTHER SOUTH...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS TO CENTRAL

ILLINOIS. MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH PRECIP INTO THE FAR W/SW KILX

CWA BEFORE 12Z SAT...BUT THINK THIS WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO AMPLE

WEDGE OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WILL

THEREFORE ONLY INTRODUCE LOW POPS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A PEORIA

TO EFFINGHAM LINE. GIVEN STRONG WAA...THINK THERMAL PROFILE WILL

BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

MAIN RAIN EVENT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH

WIDESPREAD ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH AMOUNTS. COLD FRONT WILL

REACH THE WABASH RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. IN ITS

WAKE...SHARPLY COLDER AIR WILL SURGE EASTWARD...CHANGING ANY

LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. THINK BULK OF PRECIP WILL

PUSH INTO INDIANA BEFORE THE COLD AIR ARRIVES...SO SNOW CHANCES

WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE LOW. AS WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN

FROM THE WEST...SNOW WILL BECOME LIKELY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS

THE AREA OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE

LOW...HEAVIEST DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS WILL REMAIN JUST N/NW OF

CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF

THE CWA...HOWEVER 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 3

INCHES...WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A CANTON TO

BLOOMINGTON-NORMAL LINE. FURTHER SOUTHEAST...LOCATIONS ALONG AND

SOUTH OF I-70 WILL SEE LESS THAN ONE INCH.

MAIN STORY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE THE VERY STRONG

WINDS. LATEST BUFKIT GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WIND

GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS

AND FALLING/BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT. HAVE

THEREFORE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO HIGHLIGHT THE

THREAT. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY

SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BY EARLY

MONDAY MORNING. WIND-CHILL VALUES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY

AND WILL PLUNGE INTO THE -10 TO -20 DEGREE RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL COVER THE LOW WIND-CHILLS AS WELL.

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I thought they might, they'll probably rip off my 2-5" call from this morning.

2-3 inches of fresh powder wrap around snow plus 3-5 inches of the wetter snow cover already on the ground with 40-50 MPH wind gust would make for blizzard conditions even with only light snow falling I supect some moderate bursts of snow is likle sunday afternoon

and of course there are always "suprises" too with a system this strong

wonder if DVN will fo with winterstorm warning and/or blizzard watch

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2-3 inches of fresh powder wrap around snow plus 3-5 inches of the wetter snow cover already on the ground with 40-50 MPH wind gust would make for blizzard conditions even with only light snow falling I supect some moderate bursts of snow is likle sunday afternoon

and of course there are always "suprises" too with a system this strong

wonder if DVN will fo with winterstorm warning and/or blizzard watch

:snowman:

BEARS

:snowman:

Blizzard Watch it is.

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oh id still love for it snow. I am slightly concerned even if it shows snow about the lake temperature. Ive looked online and all i could find is the NWS water temp for lake ontario which is stil in the 42-44 range. Im assuming thats why all the snow maps put out so far show the golden horseshoe in the donut of low accum?

Yeah, you're right on the lakeshore aren't you? E-SE winds'll be ripping so yeah, you might have bigger bl temp issues there. Although if the 18z NAM is right, I'm not going to be much better off here.

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ouch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL

307 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2010

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING HIGH

WINDS AND LIFE THREATENING COLD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.A POWERFUL WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE 2 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS OF A

POWDERY SNOW COMBINED WITH HIGH WINDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL

HIGHER GUSTS RESULTING IN VERY LOW VISIBILITIES AND POSSIBLY WHITEOUT

CONDITIONS. THE STRONG WINDS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO

DEVELOP IN THE INDEPENDENCE AND VINTON LOCATIONS AROUND 9 PM. THESE

CONDITIONS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND OVERSPREAD ALL THE AREA BY 3 AM

SUNDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON

SUNDAY EVEN THOUGH NEW SNOWFALL WILL END BY LATE MORNING SUNDAY

DUE TO THE HIGH WINDS. WHEN WINDS ARE 35 MPH OR MORE...BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN OPEN AND RURAL LOCATIONS. WIND SPEEDS OF

45 MPH OR MORE WILL PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EVEN IN URBAN

AREAS. THEREFORE...PERIODS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EVEN IN

THE LARGEST URBAN LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER

TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THESE LOW TEMPERATURES

COMBINED WITH THE VERY HIGH WINDS...WILL PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING

WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 30 BELOW ZERO SUNDAY MORNING LASTING INTO AT

LEAST MID DAY SUNDAY.

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-

009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-110715-

/O.NEW.KDVN.BZ.A.0001.101212T0300Z-101213T0000Z/

BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-

CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-

HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-

WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-

WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INDEPENDENCE...MANCHESTER...DUBUQUE...

VINTON...CEDAR RAPIDS...ANAMOSA...MAQUOKETA...MARENGO...

IOWA CITY...TIPTON...CLINTON...MUSCATINE...BETTENDORF...

DAVENPORT...SIGOURNEY...WASHINGTON...WAPELLO...FAIRFIELD...

MOUNT PLEASANT...BURLINGTON...KEOSAUQUA....FORT MADISON...

GALENA...FREEPORT...MOUNT CARROLL...STERLING...ROCK FALLS...

MOLINE...ROCK ISLAND...KEWANEE...PRINCETON...HENNEPIN...ALEDO...

OQUAWKA...MONMOUTH...CARTHAGE...MACOMB...MEMPHIS...KAHOKA

307 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2010

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY

AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH

SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING: BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AROUND 9 PM SATURDAY

EVENING AROUND THE VINTON AND INDEPENDENCE AREAS MOVING SOUTHEAST

AND OVERSPREADING ALL THE WATCH AREA BY 3 AM.

* SNOWFALL: 2 TO 5 INCHES OF AN ADDITIONAL POWDERY NEW SNOW.

* WINDS: 12 HOURS OR MORE OF A NW WIND OF 35 TO 50 MPH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS

TO AROUND 60 MPH POSSIBLE.

* VISIBILITY: WIDESPREAD...EXTENDED PERIODS OF A VISIBILITY BELOW

A QUARTER MILE. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN RURAL

AND OPEN AREAS BUT POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN URBAN SETTINGS.

* TEMPERATURE/WIND CHILL: TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE

DIGITS NORTH AND LOWER TEENS SOUTH SUNDAY MORNING AND NEARLY

STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 30 BELOW ZERO BY

SUNRISE SUNDAY WILL MAKE FOR POTENTIAL DANGEROUS AND LIFE

THREATENING COLD FOR ANYONE STRANDED OUTSIDE.

* IMPACTS: LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR STRANDED

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