phlwx Posted October 22, 2011 Author Share Posted October 22, 2011 to show how consistent the GFS is...the 6z takes the low center through Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 My bad, I thought you were back and forthing it. I am , but mostly down here now. I visit the north about once a month for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Whoops about the hotlink! Seems like the general theme of the 0z suite was to slow down the storm , so that by the time it arrived along the " cold" airmass ushered in behind the fropa, it has already modified, hence the rain. That, and the track clOser to the coast. My only synopsis of this storm is that it will an elevation snow for the Poconos with an occasional wet flakes and sleet for the Lehigh Valley. There is just not enough dry cold air in place to assure the entire column of air will be cooled for frozen precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 If the 12z GFS is right, it would be a chilly rain for most, but setup is promising. I bet we see a little snow in November this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 GFS with a big shift in timing (Thursday night/Friday...sorta in line with earlier Euro runs). The Euro has two systems (Thursday night/Friday) and a second wave coming up the coast on Saturday as low pressure develops east of Charleston. It's a chilly rain in both scenarios here but GFS suggests it might snow in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 to show how consistent the GFS is...the 6z takes the low center through Cleveland. Sounds like a typical winter for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 GFS with a big shift in timing (Thursday night/Friday...sorta in line with earlier Euro runs). The Euro has two systems (Thursday night/Friday) and a second wave coming up the coast on Saturday as low pressure develops east of Charleston. It's a chilly rain in both scenarios here but GFS suggests it might snow in the mountains. At least today whether the outcome is right or wrong it capitulated to the ECMWF. Given it was hanging back energy more than the ECMWF, that forecast difference scenario had dubious chances of surviving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 23, 2011 Author Share Posted October 23, 2011 Sounds like a typical winter for the GFS. Tends to be better than a . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Tends to be better than a . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 If you haven't checked out the wundermap at wunderground you should -- the EC is in three hour...pretty sick stuff. The EC and GFS are showing a 1-2 setup for Wednesday night into Thursday (round 1) and Saturday (round 2). This is Saturday at 18z...the EC, verbatim, has 2m temps in the 30's/low 40's for the region. If you're a fan of cold rain, Saturday may be your day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Mount Holly getting more interested in Saturday. UNCERTAINTY SATURDAY. AMPLITUDE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COULD TURN A DRY FCST INTO A WET OR WHITE RESULT FOR PARTS OF OUR AREA. A COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OFF NC MOVING NEWD. 00Z/24 GEFS DOESNT HAVE MUCH SIGN OF THE LOW THO THE POPS DO RISE A BIT ON SAT. THE 00Z/24 ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE IT! BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FCST PREVAILING FOR SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 If you haven't checked out the wundermap at wunderground you should -- the EC is in three hour...pretty sick stuff. The EC and GFS are showing a 1-2 setup for Wednesday night into Thursday (round 1) and Saturday (round 2). This is Saturday at 18z...the EC, verbatim, has 2m temps in the 30's/low 40's for the region. If you're a fan of cold rain, Saturday may be your day. wave 2 may support some mixing of snow in the higher elevations by paul and up in the lehigh valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 wave 2 may support some mixing of snow in the higher elevations by paul and up in the lehigh valley Don't disagree. intensity and elevation driven, of course. (definitely better chance in Poconos if the system amplifies a touch more). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Don't disagree. intensity and elevation driven, of course. (definitely better chance in Poconos if the system amplifies a touch more). Yea, best shot would probably be as the storm is pulling away. thicknesses are a little high at first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 Yea, best shot would probably be as the storm is pulling away. thicknesses are a little high at first. I could have just pulled up the snow parameter on the Euro on wunderground. of course, this is just purely based off of the surface parameters of temps in 30's...but yeah, elevations could get some white out of this. Take with huge grain of salt, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I could have just pulled up the snow parameter on the Euro on wunderground. of course, this is just purely based off of the surface parameters of temps in 30's...but yeah, elevations could get some white out of this. Take with huge grain of salt, of course. Alot of focus on the upcoming storm threat .....but how do temps look next week? Do the suburbs get below 32? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 And of course I'll be back in the valley Saturday and will miss out on any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 If you haven't checked out the wundermap at wunderground you should -- the EC is in three hour...pretty sick stuff. The EC and GFS are showing a 1-2 setup for Wednesday night into Thursday (round 1) and Saturday (round 2). This is Saturday at 18z...the EC, verbatim, has 2m temps in the 30's/low 40's for the region. If you're a fan of cold rain, Saturday may be your day. When do these maps become available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 ah hem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 12Z GFS showing some pretty heavy precip. Might be enough cooling to bring some wet flakes in the air down to SEPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 12z ecmwf is in agreement with GFS day 5 even if nobody gets wet flakes its good to see a storm track like that in october Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Pretty early in the season for Dr.No (12Z Euro for Sat) to say Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 12z ecmwf is in agreement with GFS day 5 even if nobody gets wet flakes its good to see a storm track like that in october I knew this guy would be checking in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I knew this guy would be checking in It's like bears coming out of hibernation. Good to see...it's a little too quiet around here during the the non-winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 When do these maps become available? The 12z is up now...i'm guessing less than an hour after they run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 The 12z is up now...i'm guessing less than an hour after they run? I sure hope euro wunder sticks around for the winter season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 I sure hope euro wunder sticks around for the winter season Agreed. This is some good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Too bad Rina can't bullet north in time for Saturday. That would be interesting dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 Too bad Rina can't bullet north in time for Saturday. That would be interesting dynamics. Some of the moisture may very well get pulled in. That trough that's diving in is pretty good...it might suck a piece of that storm north. I don't think Rina survives any trek north, especially as it blows up in the Carib...it being stronger could make it more susceptible to getting pulled north and northeast (which would put it into a very unfavorable environment). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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