KEITH L.I Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 The weeklies look very similar to December 2001 in weeks 3/4....lol. That sould get people excited. Late November 2001 featured a powerhouse SE ridge..is that what it shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 The wild changes we keep seeing in the ensembles after about D10 are certainly an indication that whatever pattern is coming up is quite volatile in the long wave setup. There's probably a lot of uncertainty in how long the -EPO wants to hang around after developing in the Nov 17-18 time period...today's ensembles destroy it extremely quickly and also have the NAO worse looking than yesterday. I wonder if they back off a bit on the torch. Sometimes (well at least imo) the cold in Canada tries to leak a little further south than progged and as we get closer..you see the boundary sag south. I know it's early in the season and this may not apply so early thanks to shorter wavelengths and what not, but something I notice in the cold season anyways. It still wouldn't be enough to change to overall pattern imo, but something perhaps to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 10, 2011 Author Share Posted November 10, 2011 Late November 2001 featured a powerhouse SE ridge..is that what it shows? Yeah week 2 for the end of Nov has a pretty solid SE ridge. The week 3/4 are pretty much a torch over most of the CONUS with extremely low heights over AK for a +EPO and a generally solidly +AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 I dont buy the weeklies for a second. They have to be taken with a grain of salt all the time, there track record is hardly stellar, I agree with a warm torchy November, but first week of Dec things change, and change in a big way. This winter is front loaded, hardcore Dec into early Feb. Canada is getting primed for gradient dumpage into new england, with a very sharp cutoff with a robust se ridge, it will be close down this way, but everyone else should be just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 The euro ensembles have been pretty good as of late, so other than a possible transient shot of cold...we probably are in for more mild times. Doesn't mean a torch per se, but it's not a wintry pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 I dont buy the weeklies for a second. They have to be taken with a grain of salt all the time, there track record is hardly stellar, I agree with a warm torchy November, but first week of Dec things change, and change in a big way. This winter is front loaded, hardcore Dec into early Feb. Canada is getting primed for gradient dumpage into new england, with a very sharp cutoff with a robust se ridge, it will be close down this way, but everyone else should be just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 10, 2011 Author Share Posted November 10, 2011 The euro ensembles have been pretty good as of late, so other than a possible transient shot of cold...we probably are in for more mild times. Doesn't mean a torch per se, but it's not a wintry pattern. They nailed the break in the torch and cold at the end of October. They have been a bit more volatile beyond D10 it seems though the past several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 The euro ensembles have been pretty good as of late, so other than a possible transient shot of cold...we probably are in for more mild times. Doesn't mean a torch per se, but it's not a wintry pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Hey azzwipe contribute something to the conversation besides rubbing your buns across the monitor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Hey azzwipe contribute something to the conversation besides rubbing your buns across the monitor lol... you said you don't buy the weeklies for a second and don't give any reason. What you're posting is all wishcasting and no facts. Its you and kevin versus will and scott right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 The weeklies look very similar to December 2001 in weeks 3/4....lol. That sould get people excited. <img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/thumbsupsmileyanim.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /><img src='http://208.71.34.143/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/Snowman.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /> This morning I suggested a slow step down with a god flip to cold by 12/10. I think that looks good now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 lol... you said you don't buy the weeklies for a second and don't give any reason. What you're posting is all wishcasting and no facts. Its you and kevin versus will and scott right now. I did not see Will or Scott say that they thought the weeklies would ring true in December............;I am calling for an inferno November and top 5 warmest met falls on record. Not sure what the **** you are talking about weenie boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 -pna shows signs of relaxing, -nao, fairly robust se ridge, and bitter cold in western canada sliding east in a gradient fashion, would all be good signs for a storm track riding the BR perhaps over the south coast or just south.........leading to snowy times especially away from the coastal plain, but perhaps including it. Just an opinion sir. lol... you said you don't buy the weeklies for a second and don't give any reason. What you're posting is all wishcasting and no facts. Its you and kevin versus will and scott right now. these were my thoughts which you responded to earlier today. WHat are your thoughts weeniologist>? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Here is the problem..you have folks on here that are thinking we are in a much above normal pattern for the rest of this month and into the first week of December with a transient cooldown for a day. That simply is not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Late November 2001..looks more like a trough. in the west and a ridge in the east..the west was cold and major +NAO and a block in Alaska ..and hurricane causing the ridge to be stronger in the east..I thinki it was Olga..it just stalled for days if I remember right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Kevin...you're my man...but you are delusional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Here is the problem..you have folks on here that are thinking we are in a much above normal pattern for the rest of this month and into the first week of December with a transient cooldown for a day. That simply is not the case. No, we have a lot of uncertainty past day 10 as Will said... The wild changes we keep seeing in the ensembles after about D10 are certainly an indication that whatever pattern is coming up is quite volatile in the long wave setup. There's probably a lot of uncertainty in how long the -EPO wants to hang around after developing in the Nov 17-18 time period...today's ensembles destroy it extremely quickly and also have the NAO worse looking than yesterday. And with the wild changes in the models, its impossible right now to determine what will happen past then unless you wishcast. So, all we can do is sit and wait. ---------------------------------------------------- Kevin...you're my man...but you are delusional. For once, I'm not wishcasting, and I'm still getting ganged up on lol. This is going to be like Kevin's damaging wind event forecast that never came through and he'll follow up later with "I was obviously just kidding" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Kevin...you're my man...but you are delusional. Living in a cold lonely dark house for a week does that. Imagine Kathy Bates, Kev throws some logs in the road causing Dt to go off the road and ties DT to the bed, breaks his legs until he issues a pattern change forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 They nailed the break in the torch and cold at the end of October. They have been a bit more volatile beyond D10 it seems though the past several days. Yeah they have....which makes me wonder if they don't come back colder a bit...but this doesn't mean a pattern change by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Living in a cold lonely dark house for a week does that. Imagine Kathy Bates, Kev throws some logs in the road causing Dt to go off the road and ties DT to the bed, breaks his legs until he issues a pattern change forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 I can see Kevin, JB, and Litchfield flying to the U.K and forcing the Brits to hand doctor the weeklies to match Nov. 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 I can see Kevin, JB, and Litchfield flying to the U.K and forcing the Brits to hand doctor the weeklies to match Nov. 2007 My only hope now, is that Ginx is correct and December is a south of the pike special coastal bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 11, 2011 Author Share Posted November 11, 2011 Well we shall hope that we see the switch back to the better looking pattern on the next ensembles tonight/tomorrow and weeklies....I believe the weeklies come out twice per week starting this Monday....it will be Monday/Thursday. A new change. It really couldn't be any worse than what we saw on today's ensembles and weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Well we shall hope that we see the switch back to the better looking pattern on the next ensembles tonight/tomorrow and weeklies....I believe the weeklies come out twice per week starting this Monday....it will be Monday/Thursday. A new change. It really couldn't be any worse than what we saw on today's ensembles and weeklies. LOL, true...it could only get better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 My only hope now, is that Ginx is correct and December is a south of the pike special coastal bomb. He said cp, not s of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 My only hope now, is that Ginx is correct and December is a south of the pike special coastal bomb. Or Wiz's three day storm that buries us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 He said cp, not s of the pike. I stand corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Or Wiz's three day storm that buries us I wonder what like a 1 in 10,000 year storm would be like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 I wonder what like a 1 in 10,000 year storm would be like. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Im assuming this current pattern persists for the next 2-4 weeks but the PNA is not as negative. If thats the case, dare I say, 1999? lol If we see consistent alternating temperatures then I'm guessing this would lead to more storminess would it not? If we have a strong temperature gradient maybe we can create nice healthy storms but timing is key and the location as well. It does how ever look similar to 2007. in 2007 i had 2.5 feet of snow in november.....this doesnt look anything like that, at least in terms of sensible wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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