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I have an idea - let's start a new talking points thread

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

This is a case of Who Do You Want To Believe as a different met here in this very subforum has said that the idea of poor data fields over the Pacific is fallacy.

So, is it better to cram a whole bunch of garbage into a model, push a button, and see what comes out?:lol:

I see John's point, but would assume that the model makers keep some of that in mind?

More data isn't always better data, but it usually is...

Whatever. I will be shoveling on Monday, you'll see, and you will be so sorry... muahahahaha

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

00z GFS had some interesting changes early on, but its still a warm solution for us. As long as the PV interacts with any ease prior to this crossing E of the Mississippi, then its going to be a warm solution most likely. Low is over BGM at 120 hours.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

The 00z Euro has anafront storm potential around D5-6 now...it doesn't pop the primary storm as hard and instead digs much more energy southeast as the trough is deepening...this creates a good environment for a storm further south to form along the cold frontal boundary of the primary system that is already lifting N of NY/New England.

This is a scenario that we'll have to watch closely.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

The one thing I'm not a fan of, is the potential for a rotting airmass in place after mid week next week. That block is massive and looks to circulate some marine air in here. It's not terribly warm or anything, but I don't like seeing that. The block is there, but some members have miller b's and some have cutters.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Yeah at least western NE has some snow threat as the second low runs up the coast.

UK is more interesting with no primary over the great lakes and just the second storm on the NC coast

Yeah I saw. Eh, I don't know....I'm not going to believe it until 3-4 days out. Hopefully it's something, but I'm not sold on it.

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WeatherX

WeatherX

Posted
Posted

This is impressive for western CT, an inch or two of snow verbatim.....

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DXR    LAT=  41.37 LON=  -73.48 ELE=   456

                                           00Z DEC08
            	2 M 	850 	SFC 	SFC 	700    6 HR 	500    1000 
            	TMP 	TMP 	PRS 	RHU 	RHU 	QPF 	HGT 	500 
            	(C) 	(C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM) 	THK 
WED 00Z 08-DEC  -0.2   -10.5    1003      58      77    0.00 	527 	524    
WED 06Z 08-DEC  -2.0   -11.8    1006      64      67    0.00 	527 	522    
WED 12Z 08-DEC  -3.6   -14.0    1009      62      23    0.00 	527 	520    
WED 18Z 08-DEC  -0.8   -14.0    1011      44      14    0.00 	528 	519    
THU 00Z 09-DEC  -3.3   -14.7    1016      55      19    0.00 	529 	516    
THU 06Z 09-DEC  -4.2   -15.1    1019      60      23    0.00 	528 	514    
THU 12Z 09-DEC  -5.5   -15.8    1022      62      28    0.00 	527 	510    
THU 18Z 09-DEC  -2.1   -16.0    1023      40      18    0.00 	530 	513    
FRI 00Z 10-DEC  -4.8   -13.9    1027      54   	8    0.00 	541 	521    
FRI 06Z 10-DEC  -6.1   -10.3    1028      60      17    0.00 	548 	526    
FRI 12Z 10-DEC  -6.0    -7.7    1029      57      30    0.00 	550 	528    
FRI 18Z 10-DEC  -0.3    -8.3    1026      47      98    0.00 	548 	527    
SAT 00Z 11-DEC  -0.9    -7.4    1024      79      81    0.02 	547 	528    
SAT 06Z 11-DEC  -1.8    -3.8    1022      86      38    0.00 	549 	531    
SAT 12Z 11-DEC  -2.6    -1.4    1022      83      41    0.00 	551 	533    
SAT 18Z 11-DEC   5.5    -0.1    1021      58      15    0.00 	553 	536    
SUN 00Z 12-DEC   0.6 	0.8    1020      83      22    0.00 	553 	537    
SUN 06Z 12-DEC   1.5    -0.1    1018      81      18    0.00 	551 	536    
SUN 12Z 12-DEC   2.9    -0.6    1013      90      85    0.00 	551 	541    
SUN 18Z 12-DEC   7.8 	3.8    1002      96      90    0.25 	549 	547    
MON 00Z 13-DEC   9.2 	5.0 	995      97      97    0.20 	545 	549    
MON 06Z 13-DEC   7.3 	3.6 	989      99      89    0.12 	539 	548    
MON 12Z 13-DEC   6.1 	2.7 	980      97      87    0.45 	531 	548    
MON 18Z 13-DEC  -0.5    -2.7 	978      84      98    0.32 	517 	535    
TUE 00Z 14-DEC  -7.0   -13.1 	991      69      88    0.16 	514 	521    
TUE 06Z 14-DEC  -9.6   -17.7 	997      67      91    0.02 	512 	515    
TUE 12Z 14-DEC -12.0   -19.1    1002      68      92    0.01 	512 	510    
TUE 18Z 14-DEC  -9.4   -19.7    1003      55      54    0.00 	510 	508    
WED 00Z 15-DEC -12.6   -19.8    1007      66      60    0.00 	510 	505

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Yeah I saw. Eh, I don't know....I'm not going to believe it until 3-4 days out. Hopefully it's something, but I'm not sold on it.

But based on the pattern I think odds definitely favor a pretty awful solution for us. The Euro/UK have a more interesting scenario but probably more of a pipe dream than anything else.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

This is impressive for western CT, an inch or two of snow verbatim.....

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DXR    LAT=  41.37 LON=  -73.48 ELE=   456

                                           00Z DEC08
                2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000 
                TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500 
                (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK 
WED 00Z 08-DEC  -0.2   -10.5    1003      58      77    0.00     527     524    
WED 06Z 08-DEC  -2.0   -11.8    1006      64      67    0.00     527     522    
WED 12Z 08-DEC  -3.6   -14.0    1009      62      23    0.00     527     520    
WED 18Z 08-DEC  -0.8   -14.0    1011      44      14    0.00     528     519    
THU 00Z 09-DEC  -3.3   -14.7    1016      55      19    0.00     529     516    
THU 06Z 09-DEC  -4.2   -15.1    1019      60      23    0.00     528     514    
THU 12Z 09-DEC  -5.5   -15.8    1022      62      28    0.00     527     510    
THU 18Z 09-DEC  -2.1   -16.0    1023      40      18    0.00     530     513    
FRI 00Z 10-DEC  -4.8   -13.9    1027      54       8    0.00     541     521    
FRI 06Z 10-DEC  -6.1   -10.3    1028      60      17    0.00     548     526    
FRI 12Z 10-DEC  -6.0    -7.7    1029      57      30    0.00     550     528    
FRI 18Z 10-DEC  -0.3    -8.3    1026      47      98    0.00     548     527    
SAT 00Z 11-DEC  -0.9    -7.4    1024      79      81    0.02     547     528    
SAT 06Z 11-DEC  -1.8    -3.8    1022      86      38    0.00     549     531    
SAT 12Z 11-DEC  -2.6    -1.4    1022      83      41    0.00     551     533    
SAT 18Z 11-DEC   5.5    -0.1    1021      58      15    0.00     553     536    
SUN 00Z 12-DEC   0.6     0.8    1020      83      22    0.00     553     537    
SUN 06Z 12-DEC   1.5    -0.1    1018      81      18    0.00     551     536    
SUN 12Z 12-DEC   2.9    -0.6    1013      90      85    0.00     551     541    
[b]SUN 18Z 12-DEC   7.8     3.8    1002      96      90    0.25     549     547    
MON 00Z 13-DEC   9.2     5.0     995      97      97    0.20     545     549    
MON 06Z 13-DEC   7.3     3.6     989      99      89    0.12     539     548    
MON 12Z 13-DEC   6.1     2.7     980      97      87    0.45     531     548    
[/b]MON 18Z 13-DEC  -0.5    -2.7     978      84      98    0.32     517     535    
TUE 00Z 14-DEC  -7.0   -13.1     991      69      88    0.16     514     521    
TUE 06Z 14-DEC  -9.6   -17.7     997      67      91    0.02     512     515    
TUE 12Z 14-DEC -12.0   -19.1    1002      68      92    0.01     512     510    
TUE 18Z 14-DEC  -9.4   -19.7    1003      55      54    0.00     510     508    
WED 00Z 15-DEC -12.6   -19.8    1007      66      60    0.00     510     505

More impressive than Danbury getting an inch of snow toward mid-December is haivng a 9.2*C 2m temp.

20.7/10

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Come on now, good vibes Mike, good vibes.....

:thumbsup::snowman:

Okay--this was my "good vibes" post from the other thread in response to Ray's rhetorical question.

snapback.png40/70 Benchmark, on 08 December 2010 - 02:23 AM, said:

Who cares; it's meaningless because the primary shoots up to Syracuse before it redevelopes along the mid atl coast......same diff.

If there' s something to take comfort in, I think it's that even the usually steadfast EC has been showing some inconsistent solutions. So, it's been said that "this has had inland runner/lakes cutter written all over it for days". And perhaps that statement in general is strue. Given the fluctuations, it appears there are some minor players in the mix that are not being handled well. It may not mean much in the end, but there's a strong system nearby with some things that still need ironning out.

So who cares? I do, for one.

06z GFS isn't buying the redevelopment scenario.

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Ericjcrash

Ericjcrash

Posted
Posted

Okay--this was my "good vibes" post from the other thread in response to Ray's rhetorical question.

snapback.png40/70 Benchmark, on 08 December 2010 - 02:23 AM, said:

Who cares; it's meaningless because the primary shoots up to Syracuse before it redevelopes along the mid atl coast......same diff.

If there' s something to take comfort in, I think it's that even the usually steadfast EC has been showing some inconsistent solutions. So, it's been said that "this has had inland runner/lakes cutter written all over it for days". And perhaps that statement in general is strue. Given the fluctuations, it appears there are some minor players in the mix that are not being handled well. It may not mean much in the end, but there's a strong system nearby with some things that still need ironning out.

So who cares? I do, for one.

06z GFS isn't buying the redevelopment scenario.

No, but it is further east and does show at least a period of snow to the coast.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Gotta like the 00z runs :)

The overnight developments have to be viewed as favorable. I expect many hours will be spent on why or how this won't work out but, for the moment at least, things are trending in a more positive direction. It was nice to read an upbeat post or two from you. Your excitement is palpable, maybe there is hope for you after all.lol

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Interesting that the 00z UKMet likes the Euro's second storm in E NC that lifts north and pretty much has no primary cutting through the Great Lakes. Weird developments overnight but I think the odds of getting something wintry definitely have increased.

That's more like it..Some positive optimism. Decent trends overnight

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Nice to see the trend towards colder overnight. I wonder if this is one those rare times where the Euro gets whipped by the other models. It came hundreds of miles east.

Still think tis has a chance at a pretty decent icestorm somewhere

Gotta love Kevin

I think the odds of significant ice are pretty low. The only way this gets good is if the Euro trends more toward the UK.

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