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Hurricane Irene


Baroclinic Zone

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Though I'd break off a specific storm threat given the potential, albeit slim.

Now that Irene has formed within the past 24h, we have a system that has the potential to impact NE. The storm is sill ~7 days out on the models, but the globals (Euro, GFS, GGEM...) have been hinting at some impacts to the northeast with rains and or wind. The 12z runs from 8-21 give differing scenarios with the GFS inland, GGEM offshore and the Euro somewhere in the middle. At this point all we can do is monitor model trends and development of the storm.

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The hub and I are gettin' just a wee bit excited...

but will wait and see.

FWIW, long range models have been all over this one, at least into the SE US. Do agree with you, Bob...the EC does look rather...interesting.

--Turtle

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Remnant low Irene emerging from Hispaniola?

LOL - seriously. that's not an improbable forecast.

it has to traverse PR - best i can tell RADAR looks like it's going to try and ride the south side of the island which means at least some downsloped flow feeding to the center which isn't going to help it out. then it's got the DR in front of it unless it makes a hard right. i don't know...

it could very well slam into GA/SC as a major - there's certainly model support for it. but i've already seen tweets from *PROS* warning of potential serious impacts in SC. that's maybe putting the cart before the horse, imo.

let's see where it goes the next 36 hours first.

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Seriously, this thing has to survive Hispaniola first.........just saying.......though it may skirt just to the north of the island. That would make things very interesting.

I don't think people are expecting a full blown HURRICANE hit on NE. I think this thread was made for the possible heavy rains that could come with this storm. Most models show a good slug of moisture coming into the region.

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I don't think people are expecting a full blown HURRICANE hit on NE. I think this thread was made for the possible heavy rains that could come with this storm. Most models show a good slug of moisture coming into the region.

I know that. All I'm saying is that Hispaniola has already swallowed up one tropical system this season. A second one wouldn't be shocking.

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I know that. All I'm saying is that Hispaniola has already swallowed up one tropical system this season. A second one wouldn't be shocking.

Emily had far more volatile conditions and dissipated before it even made landfall (and paralleled the southern end of the island, exposing its circulation to the high terrain for an extended length of time). I don't think the two storms can really be compared to be honest.

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