Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Though I'd break off a specific storm threat given the potential, albeit slim. Now that Irene has formed within the past 24h, we have a system that has the potential to impact NE. The storm is sill ~7 days out on the models, but the globals (Euro, GFS, GGEM...) have been hinting at some impacts to the northeast with rains and or wind. The 12z runs from 8-21 give differing scenarios with the GFS inland, GGEM offshore and the Euro somewhere in the middle. At this point all we can do is monitor model trends and development of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Nice damaging sou east screamer on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Nice damaging sou east screamer on the GFS I think the 12z Euro was pretty solid too. GGEM looked more like hydro issues more than anything else. Call me a weenie but I like what the Euro is showing right now as far as a track. Chalk it up to the Euro's better resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 6-12" for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 We want everything to slide SE of us for the most rain right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 oh jeez, now we have a thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The hub and I are gettin' just a wee bit excited... but will wait and see. FWIW, long range models have been all over this one, at least into the SE US. Do agree with you, Bob...the EC does look rather...interesting. --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 LOL @ the ggem. just got a look at that for the first time. i wouldn't wager much of anything on this system right now. and i wouldn't be boarding up if i were in SC yet either. so much time and so many variables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 LOL @ the ggem. just got a look at that for the first time. i wouldn't wager much of anything on this system right now. and i wouldn't be boarding up if i were in SC yet either. so much time and so many variables. Remnant low Irene emerging from Hispaniola? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Remnant low Irene emerging from Hispaniola? LOL - seriously. that's not an improbable forecast. it has to traverse PR - best i can tell RADAR looks like it's going to try and ride the south side of the island which means at least some downsloped flow feeding to the center which isn't going to help it out. then it's got the DR in front of it unless it makes a hard right. i don't know... it could very well slam into GA/SC as a major - there's certainly model support for it. but i've already seen tweets from *PROS* warning of potential serious impacts in SC. that's maybe putting the cart before the horse, imo. let's see where it goes the next 36 hours first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Seriously, this thing has to survive Hispaniola first.........just saying.......though it may skirt just to the north of the island. That would make things very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Seriously, this thing has to survive Hispaniola first.........just saying.......though it may skirt just to the north of the island. That would make things very interesting. I don't think people are expecting a full blown HURRICANE hit on NE. I think this thread was made for the possible heavy rains that could come with this storm. Most models show a good slug of moisture coming into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Kevin is right. I would go to Home Depot in the morning to stock up on generators and plywood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Kevin is right. I would go to Home Depot in the morning to stock up on generators and plywood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Kevin is right. I would go to Home Depot in the morning to stock up on generators and plywood. Kevin is telling people in Tolland to do that. I believe he is using the term "screaming southeaster" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Kevin is telling people in Tolland to do that. I believe he is using the term "screaming southeaster" Acorns filling the air like buckshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 one thing - it is nice to see a system out there that actually deserves a name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 one thing - it is nice to see a system out there that actually deserves a name. Still haven't got the cane yet, but that should be coming soon.......I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I don't think people are expecting a full blown HURRICANE hit on NE. I think this thread was made for the possible heavy rains that could come with this storm. Most models show a good slug of moisture coming into the region. I know that. All I'm saying is that Hispaniola has already swallowed up one tropical system this season. A second one wouldn't be shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 good reason not to lock any one location. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I know that. All I'm saying is that Hispaniola has already swallowed up one tropical system this season. A second one wouldn't be shocking. Emily had far more volatile conditions and dissipated before it even made landfall (and paralleled the southern end of the island, exposing its circulation to the high terrain for an extended length of time). I don't think the two storms can really be compared to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 good reason not to lock any one location. LOL What's the link to those maps? I can't find em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 What's the link to those maps? I can't find em http://wind.mit.edu/~btangy/Home/TCGuid.htm great site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 http://wind.mit.edu/...Home/TCGuid.htm great site. Thanks! My links are a mess... at the beginning of each season (winter, severe, tropical) I have trouble locating the good ones lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Thanks! My links are a mess... at the beginning of each season (winter, severe, tropical) I have trouble locating the good ones lol That's a great site..I use that all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 oh hey look, we're at page 2, and the storm hasn't even hit PR yet... yes i'm cynical... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 http://wind.mit.edu/...Home/TCGuid.htm great site. Sweet. I beat Tangy in the sweet 16 in the forecasting tourney last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Nice consensus for at least flood threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Irene's eyewall moving ashore in PR. Should be interesting to see what we have in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianLaverty Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Can't believe how many of the GFS Ensembles have it missing SC/NC and then having a direct hit on us. I know its very unlikely, but it IS intriguing how far east the models have taken compared to even 36 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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