Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

[ZackH]

An extraordinarily tight cluster for the three BAMs; all of which target South Carolina. Additionally, the deeper the BAM the farther down the coast the target.

The longer y'all down south of us here in NC see those BAMs pointed at ya, the deeper your dog doodoo pile gets...

There are many reasons to be watching out for the SC coast, but I wouldn't say the BAMs models are one of the main reasons. They are okay models, but definitely nowhere near the best out there, especially this early in a system's development. Also, you have to discount the deeper models while its still a relatively shallow system.

[HKY_WX]

I think the most imperative thing in the near-term is to see what this does in relation to hispanola. If it skirts it to the NE, then the models will probably have a good handle on this considering the LLC is basically developed now. If it were to make landfall deep in the island, some disruption of the center could throw off the timing and put the track forecast off-kilter.

[NCSNOW]

I think the most imperative thing in the near-term is to see what this does in relation to hispanola. If it skirts it to the NE, then the models will probably have a good handle on this considering the LLC is basically developed now. If it were to make landfall deep in the island, some disruption of the center could throw off the timing and put the track forecast off-kilter.

Right on the $. The next 24 hours will tell te tale IMO. Hispanola is the key. If it doesnt slow Irene down, then the extreme picture being painted just as recent as the 18z gfs will most likely bare fruit.

[Marion_NC_WX]

Just a gut feeling...I don't see Irene going north of Hispanola. She will go right through the heart of Hispanola and then the players on the board will change some.

[DaculaWeather]

I don't think it will go north either. Right now it's headed pretty much west and I'm kind of hoping it continues that way for a while.

[NinjaWarrior2]

NWS Miami is going bullish on the winds, I've seen them go with on land winds as high as 70mph with gusts up to 90

[WidreMann]

no

what trough... I posted this back in the main thread showing the compairisons between Floyd and Irene's ECWMF forecast, but the only thing steering Irene further north beyond 120 is the subtropical high to its east. The ridging that builds is might actually even allow a slight westward component of motion. Notably absent is a trough.

Floyd:

Irene (ECWMF):

I still see a trough. Sure, it's not a deep one (it's fairly flat), but it's there nonetheless.

[NCSNOW]

Just a gut feeling...I don't see Irene going north of Hispanola. She will go right through the heart of Hispanola and then the players on the board will change some.

There are 2 speed bumps really for Irene to navigate. First up is Puerto Rico. Its not exactly flat. I'm in the camp Irene misses Hispanola just to the north looking at recent radar/sat. Keep in mind those 10,000 foot peaks in Hispanola are more in the w/sw part of that Island. The NE side has some pretty flat areas, unlike the NE side of Puerto Rico

Highest Mountains Cerro Punta 4,389 ft Rosa 4,156 Guilarte 3,952 Tres Picachos 3,949 Maravillas 3,880 Dona Juana 3,536 Toro 3,524 Yunque 3,494 Penuelas 3,414 Torrecilla 3,093

[BullCityWx]

[ATL_Militarypolice]

Just a gut feeling...I don't see Irene going north of Hispanola. She will go right through the heart of Hispanola and then the players on the board will change some.

This is what the GFDL does before bringing the storm into the Gulf. Hits Hispaniola and it weakens and continues to track West before feeling the weekness and heading north.

GFS/EURO don't account for any weakening when they show her going over Cuba and/or Hispaniol.

Something to watch...

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[downeastnc]

Looking really good on radar gonna be close to a cane at 11 finding some winds to support at least 75mph. Wish I was on the east coast of PR tonight.....if the latest model runs are right then someone along the SE coast is in for a doozy and honestly this could bring hurricane conditions to a large swath of the SE coast if it approaches at the right angle.

[griteater]

Interesting that the Euro takes the storm through the heart of Hispanola, yet it barely weakens the storm. In contrast, the Euro pretty much dissipated Emily as it crossed Hispanola...and that proved to be quite accurate. Given the models' insistence over the past several days on maintaining a well developed storm, the healthy outflow, and seemingly light wind shear environment, I'm in the camp of this one being a CAT3+ as long as it stays east of Florida.

[Pilotwx]

To add a few things to watch for is when you see the movement change to a more NNW movement you will see several hours of raggedness with the storm. Then to get it self more organized you probably are going to see a ERC( eye-wall replacement cycle) hopefully the storm gets a push with forward speed as it goes over the Gulf Stream to limit the fuel for a bigger storm.

[FoothillsNC]

the nam is south,hitting the Keys or the southern tip of FL at 84.

[ATL_Militarypolice]

the nam is south,hitting the Keys or the southern tip of FL at 84.

Also stronger with the ridge...I've heard the Nam is better with ridges/troughs given its higher resolution.

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[NCSNOW]

lrene will be making landfall in Puerto Rico over the next few hours. Just looking at the SST's the GOM is a complete 90 degree+ bathtub in waiting for the next storm if one comes lurking over the next few weeks. It will not be affected by any upwelling from Irene riding up to the east of Florida. It's important to keep in mind some facts that could make Irene very dangerous. One as pilot alluded to the gulf stream coming up off the FL,GA, Carolina coast has sst at 90 degrees. The current track as depicted by the Euro and GFS have her spending alot of time over the gulf stream taking the angle both models currently have projected. Also a landfalling hurricane that is strengthing upon landfall is a big deal. Hugo was really ramping up when it made landfall on top of moving at a pretty good clip, thus the affects where maximized way futher inland than what normally would be the case. Irene is not forecased to be moving forward with a high sense of urgency. That cuts down on the wind factor inland, but opens the door for increased flood potential. If Irene can escape the next 36 hours by avoiding the land in it's way, then she could be off to the races.

[airmarci]

Appears that most of the 00Z Tropical Models continue to take Irene just north of or along the coast of Hispanola

[griteater]

NHC (11PM)

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE

THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110

KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE

OVERNIGHT...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER

PUERTO RICO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

[HurricaneJosh]

NHC (11PM)

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE

THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110

KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE

OVERNIGHT...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER

PUERTO RICO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

[WidreMann]

GFS shifts east. If you look at the strengthening trough in the plains and the lame-o ridge in the Atlantic, it's pretty clear that this is a fish storm (save for some of the Bahamas, Hispanola and PR).

[griteater]

GFS shifts east. If you look at the strengthening trough in the plains and the lame-o ridge in the Atlantic, it's pretty clear that this is a fish storm (save for some of the Bahamas, Hispanola and PR).

00z GFS is west of the 18z and 12z....and there is no strengthening trough in the plains. Upper pattern very much supports a FL to NC hit.

[FoothillsNC]

00z GFS is west of the 18z and 12z....and there is no strengthening trough in the plains. Upper pattern very much supports a FL to NC hit.

it looked a smidge west, making landfall between SAV and the SC line, then heads to right near Columbia. Lots of upslope rain hitting the northwest mtns of NC, because of how the chain is aligned, Boone for example would get a lot more rain than say Asheville. Either way, it spreads the shield basically to the mountains, good run for us if you want the heavy rains. It has some pockets of 9" to 10" rains as well, near Augusta. Overall its not much of a shift from its earlier runs, and it would be something to come in the GA coast, but it may brush it, we'll see. Needless to say almost all the Carolinas get a douse of flooding rains if this track occurs, save maybe southwest NC.

[Marion_NC_WX]

0z GFS further west with Irene..., I got an early day tomorrow therefor not able to stay up for the doctor. Gulfstream plane will be flying tomorrow so we'll get some fresh data into the models. Wouldn't suprise me if this thing takes another trend west before its over. Hurricane Center smart in not changing the track much with tonight's update.

[WidreMann]

00z Canadian is a lot further east in the recurve. Basically takes it along the coast from GA up to NC/SC border. Not a lot of precip NW of the track core, interestingly enough (hard to believe that).

[ryan1234]

GFS shifts east. If you look at the strengthening trough in the plains and the lame-o ridge in the Atlantic, it's pretty clear that this is a fish storm (save for some of the Bahamas, Hispanola and PR).

Uhhhh no. You should try and read the models before you type weenie like post's on here. Just a thought.

[WidreMann]

Uhhhh no. You should try and read the models before you type weenie like post's on here. Just a thought.

That was the trend in the early period of the GFS. Not my fault that it keeps the northern stream too slow later on.

[Gastonwxman]

Euro at 96 has it a tad further north than the GFS.  Let's see where it goes from here.

Edit(2:33): At 120 and 144 Euro keeps it further east, keeping the center of circulation just off from land but would still mean a great deal of trouble for eastern NC/SC and parts of eastern GA.  Quite a difference from GFS but proof that the variability of Irene's track is still quite large.

[Cheeznado]

I still think that this will go into the Carolinas, we will get a complete screw job here in western GA, even eastern sections need to worry. The Euro and GFS ensembles are east of the GFS Op run, NHC has this too far east- it will not hit FL IMHO,

[phil882]

I still see a trough. Sure, it's not a deep one (it's fairly flat), but it's there nonetheless.

00z Canadian is a lot further east in the recurve. Basically takes it along the coast from GA up to NC/SC border. Not a lot of precip NW of the track core, interestingly enough (hard to believe that).

That was the trend in the early period of the GFS. Not my fault that it keeps the northern stream too slow later on.

Joel, I know being the anti-weenie is your MO, but you can't just outright lie about model output. Both the GGEM and GFS trended west from 12z... the ECWMF trended east.

[NCSNOW]

Speed bump #1 is cleared. The eye (coc) is all but off PR and at a NW heading. Should be able to avoid Hispanola just barely latter on this evening. My gut is smelling a climo Brunswick/New Hanover county landfall. Id prefer the Charleston hit for the rains IMBY. But this is hard to root for because it's becomingincreasingly likely someone is going to get steam-rolled when Irene comes ashore.