Hurricane Irene in the tropics. Will it impact the Southeast?

[ocala]

97L has grown in size substantially from just 12-18 hours ago, in reference to recent satellite shots in comparison to this morning. It is a large wave.

I haven't seen it since this morning and man it sure did get big. Problem is there still isn't any organization yet. A large wave like you said.

[FoothillsNC]

EURO would place western NC in the NE quadrant right?

It would be in the ne quad after the circulation is to our southwest near Rome, GA, but its track is at first one that slams us with the incoming southeast fetch, and combines upslope orographic lift plust being on the favored northwest quad of an incoming circulation. Bottom line is both models are remarkably similar and the track would hammer the foothills and mountains all the way from just north of Atlanta to southwest VA possibly with a long southeast fetch and hard upslope. Certainly a good looking track for areas that want the heavy rain, but with that track it would spell doom for southwest NC and northern Ga I think with catastrophic flooding (unless its zipping right along). The models aren't painting a boat load of rain yet, just your average 4" to 7" but with that track is a beaut for much, much more rain than shown on both models. The angle of approach means a lot in terms of how hard it rains and the duration. We don't get systems approaching from the due south or southeast, so this would be rare and I'd bet it changes one way or another. Almost always, there's a curve right up the coast of the Carolinas, in which case areas west of I-77 won't get anything, or the system goes west of the Fl. peninsula and then cuts north toward the Panhandle. Here's the 12z ECMWF track

[ocala]

I hope yall are ready for this system....could RAKE the entire state of FL then head up to the SE

Still pretty far out yet so anything can happen but this is the fun part. The media hype should be kickin in real soon. Let's show the home depot with people loading up on plywood and the grocery stores flooded with people desperate for water.

[WilkesboroDude]

It would be in the ne quad after the circulation is to our southwest near Rome, GA, but its track is at first one that slams us with the incoming southeast fetch, and combines upslope orographic lift plust being on the favored northwest quad of an incoming circulation. Bottom line is both models are remarkably similar and the track would hammer the foothills and mountains all the way from just north of Atlanta to southwest VA possibly with a long southeast fetch and hard upslope. Certainly a good looking track for areas that want the heavy rain, but with that track it would spell doom for southwest NC and northern Ga I think with catastrophic flooding (unless its zipping right along). The models aren't painting a boat load of rain yet, just your average 4" to 7" but with that track is a beaut for much, much more rain than shown on both models. The angle of approach means a lot in terms of how hard it rains and the duration. We don't get systems approaching from the due south or southeast, so this would be rare and I'd bet it changes one way or another. Almost always, there's a curve right up the coast of the Carolinas, in which case areas west of I-77 won't get anything, or the system goes west of the Fl. peninsula and then cuts north toward the Panhandle. Here's the 12z ECMWF track

Very interesting.

From the HPC

FOR NOW...WE HAVE USED THE LATEST COORDINATION POINTS AGREED UPON FROM THE NHC AND EXTRAPOLATE ONE DAY FORWARD FOR THE NEW DAY 7 POINT THIS WILL PLACE IT OFF THE W COAST OF FL IN THE EASTERN GULF ON SATURDAY....TO THE LEFT OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS POSITIONS.....

[Mencken_Fan]

EURO would place western NC in the NE quadrant right?

From my limited experience here on Cape Fear (I moved here in 2003), there seems no hard and fast rule about quadrant strength with land-interacting storms.

Isabel (2003) passed well to my east; far enough away that normally one would expect no effects here....but Isabel was a beast. Her wind field was so vast, like a giant vacuum cleaner she sucked our air out (offshore winds) at tropical storm force all afternoon.

With Charley (2004) the rain-free right-rear (SE quadrant) totally blew the doors off the meager right-front (NE quadrant) which packed only a few squalls, the likes of which I could see any summer. Charley's eye passed directly overhead but it was like only half an eye; being I guess what one would call an "open eye."

With Ophelia (2005) we were in the NW, W, and SW eyewall all afternoon and it was equally wicked straight through.

Ernesto (2006) plowed straight into us very late at night. The front part was potent with wind and rain but during the quiet inside the eye I fell asleep and missed the rear half.

2007 gave us no action but in 2008 Cristobal passed very close to our east. Unfortunately, Cristobal was one of those clunker tropical storms that give you squat even though you're darned close to the center.

2009 and 2010 were quiet years but I won't be surprised to see something this year because from what I've seen so far - this place seems like a tropical cyclone magnet for either direct hits or near misses!

The bottom line is; it's difficult to know what effects you'll get....until you actually get 'em; and sometimes it can be quite a surprise.

[FoothillsNC]

Very interesting.

From the HPC

FOR NOW...WE HAVE USED THE LATEST COORDINATION POINTS AGREED UPON FROM THE NHC AND EXTRAPOLATE ONE DAY FORWARD FOR THE NEW DAY 7 POINT THIS WILL PLACE IT OFF THE W COAST OF FL IN THE EASTERN GULF ON SATURDAY....TO THE LEFT OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS POSITIONS.....

yeah the track could be anywhere from the Gulf states to the eastern Carolinas to even a miss totally offshore. The range of error at days 3 and beyond goes exponentially, so the odds of any one forecast having the center of circulation even within 500 miles correct on a day 7 prog is pretty low. But overall, I think the forecast tracks are getting better but I won't be surprised to see major changes. I'm surprised that the track is so similar between the two models right now and how consistent they've been.

[ATL_Militarypolice]

Looking good...

Recon found 47 knot winds...

URNT15 KNHC 202023

AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 22 20110820

201330 1530N 05610W 9585 00433 0074 +226 +083 103040 042 036 000 00

201400 1531N 05611W 9599 00421 0075 +227 +082 099040 042 035 002 00

201430 1532N 05612W 9587 00433 0075 +221 +083 100041 041 036 003 00

201500 1534N 05613W 9594 00426 0074 +227 +081 099043 046 037 003 03

201530 1535N 05615W 9597 00423 0073 +228 +081 091044 047 038 004 00

201600 1537N 05616W 9590 00428 0075 +218 +082 092041 043 038 008 00

201630 1538N 05617W 9595 00425 0075 +224 +081 092039 040 036 006 00

201700 1539N 05618W 9593 00427 0074 +229 +080 094041 043 036 004 00

201730 1541N 05619W 9593 00428 0075 +227 +079 092041 042 036 003 00

201800 1542N 05620W 9589 00432 0075 +226 +079 091042 043 038 005 03

201830 1543N 05621W 9597 00422 0074 +225 +080 094042 044 037 005 00

201900 1545N 05622W 9592 00428 0074 +226 +079 093042 042 036 003 00

201930 1546N 05624W 9589 00428 0073 +227 +079 093043 044 036 004 00

202000 1548N 05625W 9593 00425 0073 +227 +079 093043 043 038 004 03

202030 1549N 05626W 9593 00425 0074 +226 +079 088041 043 /// /// 03

202100 1548N 05628W 9594 00423 0073 +224 +079 087039 040 040 004 03

202130 1546N 05629W 9594 00425 0073 +222 +078 087040 041 037 007 00

202200 1545N 05630W 9596 00422 0071 +224 +078 089040 041 040 009 00

202230 1544N 05632W 9591 00424 0069 +226 +077 087039 040 040 011 00

202300 1543N 05633W 9593 00420 0070 +213 +077 085038 040 044 012 00

$

[Mencken_Fan]

yeah the track could be anywhere from the Gulf states to the eastern Carolinas to even a miss totally offshore. The range of error at days 3 and beyond goes exponentially, so the odds of any one forecast having the center of circulation even within 500 miles correct on a day 7 prog is pretty low. But overall, I think the forecast tracks are getting better but I won't be surprised to see major changes. I'm surprised that the track is so similar between the two models right now and how consistent they've been.

Given the consistency of the models; and allowing for reasonable tolerance in the strength and positioning of the Continental and Bermuda Highs....I would be comfortable placing a moderate wager this storm will in a few days be moving generally northwards within a hundred miles of either coast of Florida (though I wouldn't dare wager on its strength.)

As for North Carolina; inland rains or coastal winds....it's way too soon to make that wager.

Whatever the case, it's nice to see everyone holding hurricane lottery tickets instead of just the usual suspects.

[Mencken_Fan]

Looking good...

Looks like a sugar-frosted donut.

[buckeyefan1]

No doubt. I think he would love this run, as most would since active weather is what this forum is all about. The good news is that GFS and ECMWF have been in the same ball park for a number of days now, and going back to tracking this for (what will end up being) 2 weeks is quite a feat. I've never seen such good agreement this far out. Its still no lock though, really can't say that until is bearing down the day or two before.

So the ECMWF has it coming into Miami and straddling the FL coast to coming inland in southeast GA and really slows around Augusta and lolligags to Athens then opens up and rains out over northern GA and southeast Tennessee. But lookng at its rain amounts, with that track, the southern Apps of Ga , western NC/SC would get much more rain than shown, at that speed and trajectory. Its only showing 5" or less . Easily a track and slowing speed would ring out a foot of rain over the escarpment of the Southeast facing slopes. I'm not sure why the model doesnt show that....as GFS does show orographic enhancement and has its track further west slightly. I'm surprised the models are that close for so far out. Hopefully we can get a real rain maker into the Southeast...I think we'd all like to rake in a lot of rain. Not to mention the storm still has some wind gusts and a fairly deep center, but I imagine a track through the peninsula and southern GA inland would really weaken it bofore it was able to maintain any severe high winds in the Carolinas. Fun to watch it unfold. I'm rooting for a major rain event in most of SC..this is about the only way it can truly happen, with a system coming in from the due south or Southeast coast of GA , heading northwest. Unfortunately that would slam the mountains with flooding rains as well.

I when you talk like this

One day this dream will come true....one day...

[WilkesboroDude]

I think recon may have found a tropical storm.

[LithiaWx]

I was commenting just yesterday that 97L appeared to be a small system, now the Wave looks absolutely massive. Once a LLC forms we can see how much of this wave is going to incorporate into our storm but for now this thing is very large. I saw a post in the tropical threads with a met suggesting the the LLC is in the convection blob to the SW and the MLC is in the convection blob top the NE.

[shaggy]

VDM has low further south than I was expecting but if it continues to organize and become strong we have to start wondering what if any changes that may have in the storms future. Most of the models that took it further west also kept it weak and disorganized. Interesting 24 hours coming up once this thing gets a name.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Looks like we have Tropical Storm Irene. 50 mph.

[Marion_NC_WX]

18Z GFS similar running right up the Florida Pennisula, this run has the ridge holding strong and slowly sends the remnant center NNW up through Western Georgia...big time flood threat inland this run.

[WeatherNC]

Looks like we have Tropical Storm Irene. 50 mph.

Yep, just saw that while cooking dinner... Going to be an interesting and busy week for shore. Phil just posted a pretty good update in the main side thread outlining the differences between the UKMET GGEM camp and the EC GFS. Still lots of question marks through day 5, but the odds of anything too far south for at least some impact to the SE seem to be fading. Mobile to Savannah looks to be the current cone, lots of real-estate! Bright side is we have a potentially sig TC, that missed the re-curve, fun times ahead, and some

[Marion_NC_WX]

This new model run takes about 36 hours for Irene to travel the length (south to north) of the state of Georgia...a lot of people will get a lot of rain if that verified.

[downeastnc]

Yep, just saw that while cooking dinner... Going to be an interesting and busy week for shore. Phil just posted a pretty good update in the main side thread outlining the differences between the UKMET GGEM camp and the EC GFS. Still lots of question marks through day 5, but the odds of anything too far south for at least some impact to the SE seem to be fading. Mobile to Savannah looks to be the current cone, lots of real-estate! Bright side is we have a potentially sig TC, that missed the re-curve, fun times ahead, and some

Sup stranger, for this to be a player for a virgin landfall here we need it to miss most of Hispanola to the north and that seems the least likely right now but I got my fingers crossed, as a rule though ( at least in my lifetime) most storms that cross the Leewards and go south of PR dont get us at least directly.......

[downeastnc]

Gonna be a crazy 24 hrs the HH seems to have the center near 14ish N but its a broad area of LP and I could see it easily reforming under that convective blob near 16N which also seems to have a more WNW motion and give this a chance of going north of the bigger islands.

[WeatherNC]

Sup stranger, for this to be a player for a virgin landfall here we need it to miss most of Hispanola to the north and that seems the least likely right now but I got my fingers crossed, as a rule though ( at least in my lifetime) most storms that cross the Leewards and go south of PR dont get us at least directly.......

Sup, yeah, not holding out much hope this will be a virgin storm up this way as the trajectory is off, however, we have a history with "I" storms, and I would much rather be seeing a FL peninsula long tracker at this range than a Gulf cruiser, or Caribbean south of the boarder type deal. Furthermore, the fact that most of the guidance has it pin balling through the Islands and topographic disruptions, yet still maintaining shape tells me UL conditions should be highly favorable S and SE of FL over the next several days. Still a couple more days to narrow the cone, but be reminding with these systems that come up from the south, a small deviation in track can change the real-estate in question when referring to the SE Atlantic coastline.

[toad strangler]

[downeastnc]

Sup, yeah, not holding out much hope this will be a virgin storm up this way as the trajectory is off, however, we have a history with "I" storms, and I would much rather be seeing a FL peninsula long tracker at this range than a Gulf cruiser, or Caribbean south of the boarder type deal. Furthermore, the fact that most of the guidance has it pin balling through the Islands and topographic disruptions, yet still maintaining shape tells me UL conditions should be highly favorable S and SE of FL over the next several days. Still a couple more days to narrow the cone, but be reminding with these systems that come up from the south, a small deviation in track can change the real-estate in question when referring to the SE Atlantic coastline.

Thats the key we need a center relocation to 16N, that blob is also heading more WNW and could/would clear the bigger islands to the north if the forward speed keeps up. The door for a storm to turn up the east coast is gonna be open for a short period and a faster storm has a chance, if it's slow and south its a non player, if its faster and reforms north then we just might have a better chance at something more than a pesky rem low.

[WilkesboroDude]

I do not think the 18z runs had the data from recon added. Later runs will.

[FoothillsNC]

One thing I haven't read on here or the other forums and web is the fact of how large and strong Irene could get. Its the only game in town, with prime conditions ahead of it. The mitigating factors are the islands so if it goes lengthwise across, obviously thats a weakener, but the stronger it gets the earlier it gets, the better chance that the islands aren't that much of a disruption. The models are forecasting a pretty rare track. I'd like to see that track just for its unique factors. Normally its a smidge south and heads west, or the typical recurve, possibly brushing the eastern Carolinas. Coming into southern or eastern Florida and then into northern GA is RARE. Can't recall one that done that, but I'm sure there has been. Sort of reminds me of the Hugo track but south a little. GA is due a big hit...but we could have said that years ago.

[downeastnc]

One thing I haven't read on here or the other forums and web is the fact of how large and strong Irene could get. Its the only game in town, with prime conditions ahead of it. The mitigating factors are the islands so if it goes lengthwise across, obviously thats a weakener, but the stronger it gets the earlier it gets, the better chance that the islands aren't that much of a disruption. The models are forecasting a pretty rare track. I'd like to see that track just for its unique factors. Normally its a smidge south and heads west, or the typical recurve, possibly brushing the eastern Carolinas. Coming into southern or eastern Florida and then into northern GA is RARE. Can't recall one that done that, but I'm sure there has been. Sort of reminds me of the Hugo track but south a little. GA is due a big hit...but we could have said that years ago.

GA doesnt get landfalls oftan but then again look at how little coastline they have and how protected it is.....its just hard to get one to hit them. This could be the one though if it is fast enough ( currently moving 22 mph), and can stay east or just brush the east coast of south Florida. Honestly though once the turn its pretty rare for them to bend back west a lot, so I agree the track taking it inland to north GA is a unique one. Of course the weenie in me is all about that eastern NC hit but so far I feel we would most likely be dealing with a Charley or Ernesto like halfacane that would have to track up 95 to give me anything worthwhile, keep in mind I am a wind junkie so anything under 60 mph gust is

Watching the current IR loop I have to wonder if that center isnt about to relocate or at the very least be pulled further north by that huge blob of heavy convection......if so then one would think that at the current forward speed that a shift east in the forecast track would follow.

[Sunny and Warm]

One thing I haven't read on here or the other forums and web is the fact of how large and strong Irene could get. Its the only game in town, with prime conditions ahead of it. The mitigating factors are the islands so if it goes lengthwise across, obviously thats a weakener, but the stronger it gets the earlier it gets, the better chance that the islands aren't that much of a disruption. The models are forecasting a pretty rare track. I'd like to see that track just for its unique factors. Normally its a smidge south and heads west, or the typical recurve, possibly brushing the eastern Carolinas. Coming into southern or eastern Florida and then into northern GA is RARE. Can't recall one that done that, but I'm sure there has been. Sort of reminds me of the Hugo track but south a little. GA is due a big hit...but we could have said that years ago.

I am kind of hoping it hits FL and stalls in SC per earlier runs. We could use the rain. Unfortunately, I tend to believe the ridge builds and sends this into AL and West GA. 36 hours of rain will cause all kinds of pain in the valleys of the hilly areas.

[AbsolutZero]

Time to change the thread title, eh? FWIW, 18Z GFS and GEFS mean...

[AbsolutZero]

Appears the operational ECMWF and GFS are faster than the ensemble means. It has sped up some from yesterday.

[downeastnc]

Kinda hard to think the center is not undergoing some kind of relocation, granted IR isnt the best for center fixing but it sure looks like the center is in the process of moving to around 16.5N vs the initial plot of 14.9N with the first advisory thats 100 miles further north.

IF the center is at 14.9N then this thing is in terrible shape right now as ALL the convection is north of the center. I also wonder what a shift of 100 or so miles to the north would do with the next model runs........If I lived on PR right now I would be like uh uh......

[WeatherNC]

Kinda hard to think the center is not undergoing some kind of relocation, granted IR isnt the best for center fixing but it sure looks like the center is in the process of moving to around 16.5N vs the initial plot of 14.9N with the first advisory thats 100 miles further north.

IF the center is at 14.9N then this thing is in terrible shape right now as ALL the convection is north of the center. I also wonder what a shift of 100 or so miles to the north would do with the next model runs........If I lived on PR right now I would be like uh uh......

Agree Ron, based on the last couple Vis shots before sunset, the burst of convection to the north was engulfing whatever low level cloud bases made up the first center. Hard to believe with such favorable conditions, once the spark is lit, we don't see a dominant circulation center take hold under the dominant convection. Every WV and IR pass looks better than the last, sh!t looks to be hitting the fan, and quick!