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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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00z tracks...pretty good agreement

Cheese grater magnet. A track over the eastern section of Hispaniola would be less detrimental I would think. Nice tight consensus though.

It is interesting that PR was directly targeted for quite awhile and this suite is SW even if just a little. That trend would give birth to "something" in the Gulf provided it survives.

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I'm trying to think of runs that haven't taken it over Hispaniola or the length of Cuba. I want to say these often end up a bit left but that's probably wishcasting.

It's more plausible this time though, given how disorganized the system is... and it's not far from entering the eastern Caribbean, where the trade winds are a little stronger until about the longitude of Hispanola. Several of these models are assuming faster development than what we will probably see, given what we have to work with right now.

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It's more plausible this time though, given how disorganized the system is... and it's not far from entering the eastern Caribbean, where the trade winds are a little stronger until about the longitude of Hispanola. Several of these models are assuming faster development than what we will probably see, given what we have to work with right now.

I'd probably lean south myself but I've definitely seen a lot of tracks over the islands at this pt.

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I still wanna know if this thing will even survive if it gets over Hispaniola. We all know what happened to Emily. (I know this is not an Emily)

Emily really didn't because the environment wasn't quite as favorable once it exited Hispanola, as it may be with this one... whether it goes into the Gulf or the Bahamas. The best situation for having a storm go on to do ugly things after hitting the big islands.... is for it to hit the terrain without much of an inner core to disrupt to begin with... move on quickly instead of meandering... and then move into an environment that is favorable for significant development.

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I still wanna know if this thing will even survive if it gets over Hispaniola. We all know what happened to Emily. (I know this is not an Emily)

There is no point in worrying about that yet IMO. We don't have a system yet. The global models and their ensembles are either over or just S of Hispaniola. A couple of days ago they were right of that track. If the system stays weak as the models imply until it gets to the longitude of Hispaniola, IMO it will tend more to the left and even if it does hit Hispaniola is less likely to be affected given the more favorable environment the farther it goes. If it develops more robustly and goes directly over the big islands of the Antilles, it will likely be more disrupted. But even then if it gets back over water N or S of Cuba it could very well get its act back together if the models are correct in showing as favorable of an environment as the have. But we're still 5-7 days out from answering those questions - I still personally am happy with the points I posted earlier today. What I find so impressive and potentially important is that ALL the dynamic models have a very robust system in the vicinity of Cuba in 6-7 days, and then the GFS/ECMWF and its ensembles are within a few hundred miles of each other all the way out to day 10 and both have a very deep system.

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At least the GFS is consistent with something happening LOL. Saturday will be interesting to see if the current convective burst can bring down the impressive mid-level circulation to the low-levels. It is pretty clear this is just a strong wave for now according to the ASCAT. Will it take one or two diurnal bursts to bring it down to the surface (a la Emily or Harvey)? gfs/uk were faster than ec with this happening on the 12z cycles. I'm not too worried about the long-term track for now-- if genesis is delayed west of Puerto Rico, seems hard to believe it will take a hard right. Remember, global models are notorious for a poleward bias with deep tropical systems in the Atlantic. Not saying they couldn't be right on the money, but I will take more stock in them when the shifting around is done, and of course when there is a system :)

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