toad strangler Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 00z tracks...pretty good agreement Cheese grater magnet. A track over the eastern section of Hispaniola would be less detrimental I would think. Nice tight consensus though. It is interesting that PR was directly targeted for quite awhile and this suite is SW even if just a little. That trend would give birth to "something" in the Gulf provided it survives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I'm trying to think of runs that haven't taken it over Hispaniola or the length of Cuba. I want to say these often end up a bit left but that's probably wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I'm trying to think of runs that haven't taken it over Hispaniola or the length of Cuba. I want to say these often end up a bit left but that's probably wishcasting. It's more plausible this time though, given how disorganized the system is... and it's not far from entering the eastern Caribbean, where the trade winds are a little stronger until about the longitude of Hispanola. Several of these models are assuming faster development than what we will probably see, given what we have to work with right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I still wanna know if this thing will even survive if it gets over Hispaniola. We all know what happened to Emily. (I know this is not an Emily) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 It's more plausible this time though, given how disorganized the system is... and it's not far from entering the eastern Caribbean, where the trade winds are a little stronger until about the longitude of Hispanola. Several of these models are assuming faster development than what we will probably see, given what we have to work with right now. I'd probably lean south myself but I've definitely seen a lot of tracks over the islands at this pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I still wanna know if this thing will even survive if it gets over Hispaniola. We all know what happened to Emily. (I know this is not an Emily) Emily really didn't because the environment wasn't quite as favorable once it exited Hispanola, as it may be with this one... whether it goes into the Gulf or the Bahamas. The best situation for having a storm go on to do ugly things after hitting the big islands.... is for it to hit the terrain without much of an inner core to disrupt to begin with... move on quickly instead of meandering... and then move into an environment that is favorable for significant development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I still wanna know if this thing will even survive if it gets over Hispaniola. We all know what happened to Emily. (I know this is not an Emily) There is no point in worrying about that yet IMO. We don't have a system yet. The global models and their ensembles are either over or just S of Hispaniola. A couple of days ago they were right of that track. If the system stays weak as the models imply until it gets to the longitude of Hispaniola, IMO it will tend more to the left and even if it does hit Hispaniola is less likely to be affected given the more favorable environment the farther it goes. If it develops more robustly and goes directly over the big islands of the Antilles, it will likely be more disrupted. But even then if it gets back over water N or S of Cuba it could very well get its act back together if the models are correct in showing as favorable of an environment as the have. But we're still 5-7 days out from answering those questions - I still personally am happy with the points I posted earlier today. What I find so impressive and potentially important is that ALL the dynamic models have a very robust system in the vicinity of Cuba in 6-7 days, and then the GFS/ECMWF and its ensembles are within a few hundred miles of each other all the way out to day 10 and both have a very deep system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 small storm trying to pop near the possible center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 nice area of new convection blowing up over the last hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 nice area of new convection blowing up over the last hour still dealing with some dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Looking at satellite pics, it looks like the blow up od storms near the center is continuing to expand, the only problem right now is the MLC is still north of it by about .7 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 http://raleighwx.ame...tropical084.gif 00z GFS at 84 has 97L over SW portion of Hispanola again 108 near Cuba -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical108.gif If it continues to go NW... it will run into Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 http://raleighwx.ame...tropical084.gif 00z GFS at 84 has 97L over SW portion of Hispanola again 108 near Cuba -- http://raleighwx.ame...tropical108.gif If it continues to go NW... it will run into Cuba May even go just north of Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 120 -- right into Cuba http://raleighwx.ame...tropical120.gif Looks like it senses teh weakness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 http://raleighwx.ame...tropical084.gif 00z GFS at 84 has 97L over SW portion of Hispanola again 108 near Cuba -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical108.gif If it continues to go NW... it will run into Cuba 120 hours suggests it may run the length of Cuba or very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The GFS still has this going over land for quite a long way- not good if you want a strong system..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The GFS still has this going over land for quite a long way- not good if you want a strong system..... Mabye it will escape between Hispaniola and Cuba and ride the northern coast, ultimately. I can see tracks going further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The windshield wiper models continue- back to a Miami hit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Looks like we are going to ride the FL coast tonight on this run -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical138.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The windshield wiper models continue- back to a Miami hit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Way east of 18z run at 135 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Around Lake Okeechobee at 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Looks like the weakness on the GFS this run is farther east than it has been depicted, Miami landfall to possible South Carolina landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Hello Miami Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Looks Fay-ish, sort of. Island hopping, then Florida crossing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 going off shore FL East Coast at 162 -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical162.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Around Lake Okeechobee at 156 wow, still a 986 L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 At least the GFS is consistent with something happening LOL. Saturday will be interesting to see if the current convective burst can bring down the impressive mid-level circulation to the low-levels. It is pretty clear this is just a strong wave for now according to the ASCAT. Will it take one or two diurnal bursts to bring it down to the surface (a la Emily or Harvey)? gfs/uk were faster than ec with this happening on the 12z cycles. I'm not too worried about the long-term track for now-- if genesis is delayed west of Puerto Rico, seems hard to believe it will take a hard right. Remember, global models are notorious for a poleward bias with deep tropical systems in the Atlantic. Not saying they couldn't be right on the money, but I will take more stock in them when the shifting around is done, and of course when there is a system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 982mb exiting near St. Augustine at 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 2nd Landfall on US Soil -- S SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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