MarkSC Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Totally agree with them... that and the fact that the east coast solutions have seem, for the most part, to be fluky outliers when looking at all of the ensemble means, etc.... this is most likely headed for a Florida/eastern Gulf solution. l see about half of the ensembles east of Florida, although they may have gotten there after crossing the peninsula. Remember how tough forecasting was with Charley with that angle of attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 l see about half of the ensembles east of Florida, although they may have gotten there after crossing the peninsula. Remember how tough forecasting was with Charley with that angle of attack. The main thing to look for is where the ensemble mean lies... and that is a Gulf solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 The main thing to look for is where the ensemble mean lies... and that is a Gulf solution. i thought that the GFS ensembles were overall not really a great piece of guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 The main thing to look for is where the ensemble mean lies... and that is a Gulf solution. Plus, I don't see where there are half of the members east of FL. Looking at the 1004 mb spread at 204 hours, it looks like a pretty big cluster in the eastern Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 i thought that the GFS ensembles were overall not really a great piece of guidance? They help, but yeah it's certainly not advisable to have it as your flagship piece of evidence. When the majority of their solutions line up with the Euro is pretty much when they're useful in considering forecast certainty. Plus, I don't see where there are half of the members east of FL. Looking at the 1004 mb spread at 204 hours, it looks like a pretty big cluster in the eastern Gulf. This too. I see a few east of Florida... but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 FWIW 12z GFS Ensemble mean...I would imagine quite a few individual GFS members show quite a beast in the Gulf with this signature 8 members below 996, pretty good for a chopped resolution model with peturbed intial conditions. Clustering also seems pretty good for 9 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 The main thing to look for is where the ensemble mean lies... and that is a Gulf solution. Isn't the mean affected by the likely additional strengthening the storm would undergo if it were to be in the Gulf vs. FL and the Atlantic? This morning's Euro mean on the free site seemed about equal between E and W of FL. The spaghetti plots were pretty well split on the 0Z GFS as well. I haven't seen the 12Z yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Isn't the mean affected by the likely additional strengthening the storm would undergo if it were to be in the Gulf vs. FL and the Atlantic? This morning's Euro mean on the free site seemed about equal between E and W of FL. The spaghetti plots were pretty well split on the 0Z GFS as well. I haven't seen the 12Z yet. It would, but with none of the ensembles really bombing the system out... no matter where they track it... because of the grid resolution... there would still be a signal off the east coast in the mean, if enough individual members were carrying that track. None of the ensemble members, because of the grid resolution, are able to bomb the system out enough to make the strength overcome the placement when referring to the ensemble mean plot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 The meat is cooking. Hello Riptide from Cape May, New Jersey. That is definitely one charming town you have; with all those pastel colored homes! Though a resident of Wilmington, N.C since 2003 and not a member of the "northern boards" here, I'm a native of Washington, D.C. where my father was born in the early 1920s; and I have roots to the Delaware coast where my grandfather was a major property owner and "honorary mayor" of Bethany Beach back in the 1930s. My first trips to the Delaware beaches involved a ferry boat ride across the Chesapeake....thankfully though that's a bit farther back than my memory goes, LOL. Anyway, back to the topic....it amazes me year after year how much credit is given to models beyond five days; worse yet, models of mere disturbances! At this range, the GFS and EURO are like Pied Pipers with the crowd winding along this way and that way as the Piper lures them along. That said, you're quite right about our meat cooking...even though it wasn't supposed to so soon....and during the day time at that! Might next week be our biggest week of the year? Anyone have one of those old "Magic 8 Balls"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 It would, but with none of the ensembles really bombing the system out... no matter where they track it... because of the grid resolution... there would still be a signal off the east coast in the mean, if enough individual members were carrying that track. None of the ensemble members, because of the grid resolution, are able to bomb the system out enough to make the strength overcome the placement when referring to the ensemble mean plot. That makes sense. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 Isn't the mean affected by the likely additional strengthening the storm would undergo if it were to be in the Gulf vs. FL and the Atlantic? This morning's Euro mean on the free site seemed about equal between E and W of FL. The spaghetti plots were pretty well split on the 0Z GFS as well. I haven't seen the 12Z yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Euro ensembles also like the ectrl GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 it has definitely improved today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Hello Riptide from Cape May, New Jersey. That is definitely one charming town you have; with all those pastel colored homes! Though a resident of Wilmington, N.C since 2003 and not a member of the "northern boards" here, I'm a native of Washington, D.C. where my father was born in the early 1920s; and I have roots to the Delaware coast where my grandfather was a major property owner and "honorary mayor" of Bethany Beach back in the 1930s. My first trips to the Delaware beaches involved a ferry boat ride across the Chesapeake....thankfully though that's a bit farther back than my memory goes, LOL. Anyway, back to the topic....it amazes me year after year how much credit is given to models beyond five days; worse yet, models of mere disturbances! At this range, the GFS and EURO are like Pied Pipers with the crowd winding along this way and that way as the Piper lures them along. That said, you're quite right about our meat cooking...even though it wasn't supposed to so soon....and during the day time at that! Might next week be our biggest week of the year? Anyone have one of those old "Magic 8 Balls"? I'm flattered, though I'm not from the Cape May area. It's already been a journey in itself tracking this....just hoping the convection doesn't fade away with DMIN. I have faith in the models at this point, they are fairly accurate within 5 days in 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 it has definitely improved today Too early to tell, 9 days out, but I'm glad I don't live in PNS or PFN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Euro ensembles also like the ectrl GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Some significant clustering east of Florida as well. Miami keeps popping into my head as the most likely place of landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Am I missing something? People here are saying 9 days out. Or is that if the storm is in the Gulf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 Am I missing something? People here are saying 9 days out. Or is that if the storm is in the Gulf? If it hits Miami, it has less distance to travel than if it enters the Gulf and hits, say, Pensacola... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 It's not that organized yet. i think the floater is focusing on the northern convection, but is clear the vorticity is between the two areas of convection, around 12.5N... that vorticity could relocate closer to the convection, but it's still not. Vis loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 If it hits Miami, it has less distance to travel than if it enters the Gulf and hits, say, Pensacola... Yea, that's what I figured. I just wanted to make sure that was why people were saying 9 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Definitely low level vorticity is way south of the N convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 It's not that organized yet. i think the floater is focusing on the northern convection, but is clear the vorticity is between the two areas of convection, around 12.5N... that vorticity could relocate closer to the convection, but it's still not. Vis loop Nice sized circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 European ensemble mean at hour 240 is further west than operational. It appears to be over or just to the west of New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 European ensemble mean at hour 240 is further west than operational. It appears to be over or just to the west of New Orleans. consensus cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 So from east coast to GOM hmm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 The chances of this being an East Coast or recurver are highest if the system gets north of the big Caribbean islands prior to 144 or so hours from the 12Z runs today. This puts it ahead of the first trough that will be exiting the eastern United States early to middle of next week. If not, it doesn't get picked up by that trough, and gets influenced by ridging that builds in behind it. A lot of things can change... but with this convective blow-up being almost completely on the north side of the circulaton today... with that placement of the circulation, and the structure as it's approaching the Caribbean, I think the odds are increasing that this may go south of Hispanola. If we do get the system to miss next week's trough.... history has shown us over and over again that the westward building of ridging north of a tropical cyclone is almost always underdone in the models, especially when the tropical system is an intense one... and there is the potential for "ridge pumping" with the latent heat being released through the northern outflow channel. All nothing more than speculation right now, but it's things to keep in mind if we don't get this to go north of the big islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I'm flattered, though I'm not from the Cape May area. It's already been a journey in itself tracking this....just hoping the convection doesn't fade away with DMIN. I have faith in the models at this point, they are fairly accurate within 5 days in 2011. If you're not from the Cape May area, why do you show that town as your location? And by the way, to any reader here; though New Jersey certainly has its drawbacks, it has many terrific beach towns such as Cape May, Point Pleasant, etc. About 97L: while we often experience disappointing results in the tropics, we should remember there are times when these disturbances outperform. We're suddenly seeing much improvement in 97L during daylight hours; and if the diurnal effect holds true tonight, we might be floored by what we see tomorrow. Okay - the operative word is "might" but we all know the diurnal trend; especially those of us whose local radars extend into the Gulf Stream (which at times lights up like a Christmas tree.) I started to make a post yesterday but deleted it because I don't like to post here often. My mind was on the BAM models which I believe are too often ignored. My thinking was 97L has always been about the BAMs and not the GFS or EURO. Early intensification = a few degrees to the right; late intensification = a few degrees to the left. Empirical evidence over the years has shown us that a disturbance's future track is not so much defined by the global models as it is by the timing of intensification (a feat beyond the ability of any global model.) No doubt, we can all extrapolate what we see on satellite tonight; with our without models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 It's not that organized yet. i think the floater is focusing on the northern convection, but is clear the vorticity is between the two areas of convection, around 12.5N... that vorticity could relocate closer to the convection, but it's still not. Vis loop Thank you for the loop but please consider not linking to Java; some of our computers are not keen on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Agreed....the BAMs are top notch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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