CUmet Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 The 00z SHIPS initialization diagnosed the 850-200 mb shear as only 6 kt from the SE, and the CIMSS shear analysis is from the west at 5-10 kt, which isn't too bad either. However, the convective pattern is highly suggestive of a sheared storm, with intense convection breaking out east of the center and staying on that quadrant. I think what's happening is that there is shear in the 850-300 mb layer that is being missed by the traditional shear diagnostics. There are northwesterly winds at around 10 kt in the 250-350 mb layer being picked up by the 00z soundings in PR and Saint Maarten, to the NW and N of the storm respectively: A similar situation happened with Erika in 2009, where all of the traditional 850-200 mb shear metrics showed low shear, but the convection kept being displaced from the center. Clearly, this is not a very favorable environment for intensification. In light of this, I'm not sure if this will survive Hispaniola, and it frankly may not even make it there as a TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Wow, this is a hard storm to figure out- the GFS, which was the earliest model to really say this would be a storm, now has nothing but an open wave through 54 hours. This barely was a storm before crossing the Islands, so the John Hope rule is iffy in this case. The sat pics have a large general circulation which usually says to me that a system will develop. Bottom line- at this point I am somewhat baffled. I think that this will at least threaten FL- but how strong? Difficult to say right now, I'm going with no direct East coast hit (including FL) from Emily as a hurricane based largely on the NAO stats that I've already mentioned with regard to east coast H hits since 1950.....lowest having been the -0.965 for Hazel of 1954. The models even seem to suggest that a stronger storm would have a good chance to recurve. I'm also going to go with it being a TS rather than a H IF it were to hit the east coast directly. I have since taken a look at direct TS hits on the east coast since 1950. Once again, there's a partial + correlation with the NAO. However, it is smaller and there were three TS hit days with sub -1 NAO's (Heidi of 1971, Dean of 1983, and Ernesto of 2006). Moreover, there was one sub -2 NAO on the day of an east coast TS hit. This was when Ernesto hit NC very late on 8/31/06. As has just been noted by another poster, Ernesto may be a pretty good analog based on initial position, strength, and projected future track. The sub -2 NAO can now be added to the reasons Ernesto may be an even better analog since we appear to be headed to near or a little below -2 at about the time Emily would hit the U.S. east coast IF it were to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Lots of convection. Some trying to go up near center. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Emily doesn't look all that bad right now. However, the center is likely to the west of the deepest convection. Certainly looks a whole lot better than yesterday at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Emily doesn't look all that bad right now. However, the center is likely to the west of the deepest convection. Certainly looks a whole lot better than yesterday at this time. I think the center is where that little dot of convection is trying to get going west of the huge blob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I'm going with no direct East coast hit (including FL) from Emily as a hurricane based largely on the NAO stats that I've already mentioned with regard to east coast H hits since 1950.....lowest having been the -0.965 for Hazel of 1954. The models even seem to suggest that a stronger storm would have a good chance to recurve. I'm also going to go with it being a TS rather than a H IF it were to hit the east coast directly. I have since taken a look at direct TS hits on the east coast since 1950. Once again, there's a partial + correlation with the NAO. However, it is smaller and there were three TS hit days with sub -1 NAO's (Heidi of 1971, Dean of 1983, and Ernesto of 2006). Moreover, there was one sub -2 NAO on the day of an east coast TS hit. This was when Ernesto hit NC very late on 8/31/06. As has just been noted by another poster, Ernesto may be a pretty good analog based on initial position, strength, and projected future track. The sub -2 NAO can now be added to the reasons Ernesto may be an even better analog since we appear to be headed to near or a little below -2 at about the time Emily would hit the U.S. east coast IF it were to do so. I would be interested to know how often the NAO is more than -2 during hurricane season. I've seen a lot of these discussions but I don't know enough about what the NAO "usually" is to fully understand the significance. As to the storm...at this rate we're going to be through the alphabet before something forms that actually looks like a tropical cyclone. I'll be wishcasting on this one, I'm pretty sure most of us in the southeast would take some cat. 1 damage in order to get a break from the heat and a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 There has been some discussion about dry air intrusion. It appears Emily is shaking off that problem as time goes by… Emily doesn't look all that bad right now. However, the center is likely to the west of the deepest convection. Certainly looks a whole lot better than yesterday at this time. The convection does look nice, but until the low and mid level centers are vertically aligned, this storm will suffer from dry air intrusions... Speaking of which, this shows up quite well on the most recent microwave, which shows the center well removed from the deep convection, and continuing to separate. These are not good signs, especially in light of the 00z gfs that no longer wants anything to do with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 This is one the better examples of a computer model showing a decoupled circulation that I've seen. If this comes to pass, Emily won't have much of a future. It is worth mentioning this is a major change from the previous runs, so it should be taken with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 The convection does look nice, but until the low and mid level centers are vertically aligned, this storm will suffer from dry air intrusions... Speaking of which, this shows up quite well on the most recent microwave, which shows the center well removed from the deep convection, and continuing to separate. These are not good signs, especially in light of the 00z gfs that no longer wants anything to do with this system. The center is not that far outside deep convection. Latest IR just blew up some right near it. Looks like it is trying to push in over the center here in the next 1-2 hrs. If not then ya we have a problem. But, she is trying hard. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html This image is a little behind but, that little convection blob by center just blew up in new frame above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 This is one the better examples of a computer model showing a decoupled circulation that I've seen. If this comes to pass, Emily won't have much of a future. That is impressive. I admittedly don't pay as close of attention to these things as you or many others in this thread do, but I cannot personally recall seeing that clear of a depiction before of a TC decoupling like that. Also it should be noted that Emily is moving into a region where TCs historically struggle (for reasons that I'm not immediately clear on but I believe I've read have some basis in meteorology). All in all, it's hard to dispute that Emily has a massive, massive uphill battle ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 A recon flight is scheduled for right now. Where is it? FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70 A. 02/0600Z,1200Z B. AFXXX 0605A CYCLONE C. 02/0430Z D. 15.4N 60.0W E. 02/0530Z TO 01/1200Z F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 A recon flight is scheduled for right now. Where is it? FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70 A. 02/0600Z,1200Z B. AFXXX 0605A CYCLONE C. 02/0430Z D. 15.4N 60.0W E. 02/0530Z TO 01/1200Z F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT Should be taking off soon if not already. Will take some time to get data into google earth or whatever you are using. Should hopefully see it by 2:10 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Should be taking off soon if not already. Will take some time to get data into google earth or whatever you are using. Should hopefully see it by 2:10 AM. The flight should have taken off over 90 minutes ago and been in the system by now. I'm wondering if NHC cancelled the flight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 The flight should have taken off over 90 minutes ago and been in the system by now. I'm wondering if NHC cancelled the flight. 6Z is 2 AM. Edit: Wait which flight you talking about. I think the recon is supposed to be at 2 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 6Z is 2 AM. It's 06:01 Zulu right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I'm going with no direct East coast hit (including FL) from Emily as a hurricane based largely on the NAO stats that I've already mentioned with regard to east coast H hits since 1950.....lowest having been the -0.965 for Hazel of 1954. The models even seem to suggest that a stronger storm would have a good chance to recurve. I'm also going to go with it being a TS rather than a H IF it were to hit the east coast directly. I have since taken a look at direct TS hits on the east coast since 1950. Once again, there's a partial + correlation with the NAO. However, it is smaller and there were three TS hit days with sub -1 NAO's (Heidi of 1971, Dean of 1983, and Ernesto of 2006). Moreover, there was one sub -2 NAO on the day of an east coast TS hit. This was when Ernesto hit NC very late on 8/31/06. As has just been noted by another poster, Ernesto may be a pretty good analog based on initial position, strength, and projected future track. The sub -2 NAO can now be added to the reasons Ernesto may be an even better analog since we appear to be headed to near or a little below -2 at about the time Emily would hit the U.S. east coast IF it were to do so. I'm saving your interesting post for future reference. I remember Ernesto's center passing directly overhead that night; he was a very healthy tropical storm! Drought-stricken southeastern N.C. is primed and ready for a redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70 A. 02/0600Z,1200Z B. AFXXX 0605A CYCLONE C. 02/0430Z D. 15.4N 60.0W E. 02/0530Z TO 01/1200Z F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT Isn't the 02/430Z under column C suppose to be the takeoff time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 The first five cyclones on this side have really struggled this year. With each one, we're spending hours and hours analyzing where the center might be, whether or not it might be decoupling, and other morbid topics. Ugh-- enough with the crappycanes already. I want to see some EPAC-like action-- where the cyclones just form fast and easy and look nice. Don and now Emily just have me really sore with the NATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70 A. 02/0600Z,1200Z B. AFXXX 0605A CYCLONE C. 02/0430Z D. 15.4N 60.0W E. 02/0530Z TO 01/1200Z F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT Isn't the 02/430Z under column C suppose to be the takeoff time? I thought it was under A. It said if storm formed 6hr fixed flights. Though who knows what they are doing. That last flight lasted so long they probably are still filling up. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleetfreak Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70 A. 02/0600Z,1200Z B. AFXXX 0605A CYCLONE C. 02/0430Z D. 15.4N 60.0W E. 02/0530Z TO 01/1200Z F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT Isn't the 02/430Z under column C suppose to be the takeoff time? Yes, the mission should have taken off from St. Croix nearly two hours ago (12:30 a.m. EDT), but there are no reports. Either the flight was cancelled or the aircraft has experienced total communications failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 For all we know, the plane could be sampling the storm, but isnt able to transmit the findings which is why it looks like they didnt take off or option b is they just simply didnt take off yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Yes, the mission should have taken off from St. Croix nearly two hours ago (12:30 a.m. EDT), but there are no reports. Either the flight was cancelled or the aircraft has experienced total communications failure. They did have issues with the first plane that sampled the storm. hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Dry air is entraining like crazy into the pouch on the MIMIC-TPW, wrapping around the western and southern sides. Given that the 850-300 shear is probably from the northwest and is pretty strong, the dry air is in a good position to continue to wrap into the core. The low-level swirl is outrunning the rest of the system and headlong into the dry air. And it likely will have to deal with at least one major island crossing. There's really not much to be optimistic about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Dry air is entraining like crazy into the pouch on the MIMIC-TPW, wrapping around the western and southern sides. Given that the 850-300 shear is probably from the northwest and is pretty strong, the dry air is in a good position to continue to wrap into the core. The low-level swirl is outrunning the rest of the system and headlong into the dry air. And it likely will have to deal with at least one major island crossing. There's really not much to be optimistic about this. Utterly grim. On the bright side, it's only 02 August. Climatologically, we haven't even gotten to the real heart of the season, and won't for another week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleetfreak Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 In watching the radar loop from Martinique, it does appear that the storm is becoming better organized late tonight. Banding is becoming brighter and more intense south through northeast of a circulation center near 15.1 n and 62.3 w. This is nearly the same position estimate from SSD at 0545z. We won''t know for sure until visible satellite become available or there's an aircraft out there, but believe from all available data that Emily is stronger and farther east than NHC's 11 pm and 2 am positions (and underneath the most vigorous convection). Martinique radar http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 The shortwave infrared reveals that we still have significant decoupling of the LLC and MLC ongoing. You can just barely see the LLC now south of Puerto Rico while the heaviest of convection persists over the MLC. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 The shortwave infrared reveals that we still have significant decoupling of the LLC and MLC ongoing. You can just barely see the LLC now south of Puerto Rico while the heaviest of convection persists over the MLC. http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-ir2.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Thanks for posting...that helps clarify things a little better. So here's where my rough surface postion would be: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 You know, what would be ironic is if land interaction later on tightens up the convergence just enough for the LLC to organize for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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