jm1220 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 It looks like a case with SE winds with an extremely high 578 dm 1000-500 thickness for NYC and points N and E. This has the potential to be 83/76 type conditions for NYC, LI and New England coast with 83 feeling like 90-92 instead and oppresive being an understatement even if we backdoor for moments during this 4-7 day hot period. Places near NYC and points north will likely see lots of low 80's with horrible near 76 dews. Places to the south of any such boundary will see 98-104 over 68 with heat indexes near 115. Most of CNJ and points south and west will suffer the most. This will not be a 70/62 north of BD boundary deal this go around with high thickness even north. Most of the time with SE winds and thickness over 576 the dews are above 75 and significantly severe MCS clusters are a real possibility. Especially with DC hypothetically at 103/70, Philly at 100/69, NYC at 84/76 and Boston at 81/74 which look like real possible observations during this upcoming period. I really can see a strong argument for solid 2 interspersed moderate risk SVR days during the next 10 day period with 10% TOR 45% Wind hatched and 15% Hail with the upcoming pattern and jet placements. The pattern is absolutely perfect for SVR .... ?? Looks to me based on the height fields and H/L placement that it would mainly be westerly/SW flow. And Philly at 100 and NYC at 84? When's the last time that happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 ?? Looks to me based on the height fields and H/L placement that it would mainly be westerly/SW flow. And Philly at 100 and NYC at 84? When's the last time that happened? he made the same call in the spring, i dont understand him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 he made the same call in the spring, i dont understand him He's been making outrageous calls, none of which have come to fruition, since at least the beginning of last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Realistically, what kind of pattern would need to happen for PHL 100/NYC 84? A warm front getting hung up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Realistically, what kind of pattern would need to happen for PHL 100/NYC 84? A warm front getting hung up? I've seen spring patterns where a backdoor front comes through and NYC can be freezing and in the 40s on NE winds, while Philly can be 70 and above, but having the same kind of thing happen in late July is a lot more difficult. It would take a vicious Maritimes high or something to create that kind of contrast and frontal boundary, which no model is showing from what I can see. I can certainly see a pattern a couple of days into the heat where a front comes through for a day or two because of the tendency for upper lows/troughs to constantly develop over SE Canada the last few months, but something like what he describes seems absurd. Also, every model eventually shifts the ridge and westerly flow east toward next weekend. It looks very likely that we're going to bake in a big way around that timeframe. Midtown's gonna suck. I remember the entire place turning into a hazy sauna that was so rancid that you could barely catch a breath back in June when it got very hot. The humidity will be the killer if it shows up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 It looks like a case with SE winds with an extremely high 578 dm 1000-500 thickness for NYC and points N and E. This has the potential to be 83/76 type conditions for NYC, LI and New England coast with 83 feeling like 90-92 instead and oppresive being an understatement even if we backdoor for moments during this 4-7 day hot period. Places near NYC and points north will likely see lots of low 80's with horrible near 76 dews. Places to the south of any such boundary will see 98-104 over 68 with heat indexes near 115. Most of CNJ and points south and west will suffer the most. This will not be a 70/62 north of BD boundary deal this go around with high thickness even north. Most of the time with SE winds and thickness over 576 the dews are above 75 and significantly severe MCS clusters are a real possibility. Especially with DC hypothetically at 103/70, Philly at 100/69, NYC at 84/76 and Boston at 81/74 which look like real possible observations during this upcoming period. I really can see a strong argument for solid 2 interspersed moderate risk SVR days during the next 10 day period with 10% TOR 45% Wind hatched and 15% Hail with the upcoming pattern and jet placements. The pattern is absolutely perfect for SVR .... you have to be a troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 I've seen spring patterns where a backdoor front comes through and NYC can be freezing and in the 40s on NE winds, while Philly can be 70 and above, but having the same kind of thing happen in late July is a lot more difficult. It would take a vicious Maritimes high or something to create that kind of contrast and frontal boundary, which no model is showing from what I can see. I can certainly see a pattern a couple of days into the heat where a front comes through for a day or two because of the tendency for upper lows/troughs to constantly develop over SE Canada the last few months, but something like what he describes seems absurd. Also, every model eventually shifts the ridge and westerly flow east toward next weekend. It looks very likely that we're going to bake in a big way around that timeframe. Midtown's gonna suck. I remember the entire place turning into a hazy sauna that was so rancid that you could barely catch a breath back in June when it got very hot. The humidity will be the killer if it shows up. Hopefully we can keep the WNW flow going so we can bake hotter than midtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Hopefully we can keep the WNW flow going so we can bake hotter than midtown It's looks like mostly a WSW flow, by Friday. Which would mean hottest temp for NYC metor will likely be between EWR and LGA. The 0z Euro had 24-26C 850mb temps over us again, on Friday .0z/17 Euro Ensemble Mean are at their warmest: yet. With 22-24C 850mb temps reaching us by Friday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 It looks like a case with SE winds with an extremely high 578 dm 1000-500 thickness for NYC and points N and E. This has the potential to be 83/76 type conditions for NYC, LI and New England coast with 83 feeling like 90-92 instead and oppresive being an understatement even if we backdoor for moments during this 4-7 day hot period. Places near NYC and points north will likely see lots of low 80's with horrible near 76 dews. Places to the south of any such boundary will see 98-104 over 68 with heat indexes near 115. Most of CNJ and points south and west will suffer the most. This will not be a 70/62 north of BD boundary deal this go around with high thickness even north. Most of the time with SE winds and thickness over 576 the dews are above 75 and significantly severe MCS clusters are a real possibility. Especially with DC hypothetically at 103/70, Philly at 100/69, NYC at 84/76 and Boston at 81/74 which look like real possible observations during this upcoming period. I really can see a strong argument for solid 2 interspersed moderate risk SVR days during the next 10 day period with 10% TOR 45% Wind hatched and 15% Hail with the upcoming pattern and jet placements. The pattern is absolutely perfect for SVR .... Utter nonsense. There is no front or boundary, just some ROF thunderstorms around the top of the ridge as it builds in Monday evening. While some of these storms could be locally severe, not everybody will get them and the idea that the pattern here is "perfect for SVR" has to be a joke. Our biggest threat is for later in the week with huge stress on the power grid from extreme heat (possible 98-103 degree temps). WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Utter nonsense. There is no front or boundary, just some ROF thunderstorms around the top of the ridge as it builds in Monday evening. While some of these storms could be locally severe, not everybody will get them and the idea that the pattern here is "perfect for SVR" has to be a joke. Our biggest threat is for later in the week with huge stress on the power grid from extreme heat (possible 98-103 degree temps). WX/PT Strongly agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 12z Euro is a major scorcher with 20+ C 850 temps from Thursday through Sunday and 24+c 850 temps Friday and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 12z Euro is a major scorcher with 20+ C 850 temps from Thursday through Sunday and 24+c 850 temps Friday and Saturday. We get a break then but it looks it reloads after d10.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 We get a break then but it looks it reloads after d10.. GFS hinting at a repreise between the 25- 27th then the atlantic ridge moves in big time. Earth, ECM implying the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 greatings from Spring hill Florida...I'll be used to any heat we get after being down here for two weeks...It's been hot almost every day now...The weather has been boring since the rain we got last week...So long for now...I hope to be back next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Thursday...100+ Friday...100+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Tomorrow looks like mid to potentially upper 90's...the newest NAM MOS is warmer at EWR with a high of 96. The GFS is three degrees cooler. Much depends on the convective timing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I haven't tracked the weekend heat much outside of the Danbury area, but the temperatures have trended warmer than MOS. tomorrow could be a repeat, meaning 90+ is possible in many areas, but as some have said, the limiting factor may be clouds and thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 12z Euro is a major scorcher with 20+ C 850 temps from Thursday through Sunday and 24+c 850 temps Friday and Saturday. That's awesome-- W winds for all means 100+ temps widespread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 It's looks like mostly a WSW flow, by Friday. Which would mean hottest temp for NYC metor will likely be between EWR and LGA. The 0z Euro had 24-26C 850mb temps over us again, on Friday .0z/17 Euro Ensemble Mean are at their warmest: yet. With 22-24C 850mb temps reaching us by Friday: WSW is extremely hot for JFK and western Long Island also..... it's mostly a land breeze for us. Even a SW wind only has a 5-8 mile fetch over the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN UPPER TROF ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NE U.S. LIFTS OUT WITH A WARM RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY EXPANDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUSLY WARM HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THU AND FRI...WITH HIGHS 95 TO 100 ACROSS NYC METRO AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...WITH EVEN COASTAL LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT NEAR 90. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINT AIR MOVING IN FROM THE SW WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS. HEAT ADVISORIES SEEM LIKELY AT THIS TIME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET. EVEN BEFORE THE HOTTEST WEATHER...TUE AND WED WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS TOPPING OUT NEAR 90. AS FOR CONVECTION...A THERMAL TROF WILL SET UP EACH AFT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. THE AIRMASS WILL LARGELY BE CAPPED WITH THE WARM HEIGHTS ALOFT. ANY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AT THIS TIME. WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH OF FRI...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY KEEP THE SEABREEZE IN CHECK. THUS...THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH 85H TEMPS 22C TO 24C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 The "with even coastal locations topping out near 90" makes it sound like a big deal; are they forgetting we hit 98 a week ago? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 looks damn impressive for at least THU/FRI. bring it! don't see +24C 850s up here very often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Upton mentioned a backdoor job for Friday night? Still on the table or staying north and east of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Upton mentioned a backdoor job for Friday night? Still on the table or staying north and east of us? EC shows no such thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Im not going to worry about wind direction here-- it's already 91 here today and on a southwest wind edit: 92 now and still going up quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Newark was at 94 at 12pm...waiting for new OB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 1pm OB looks like 96 at EWR..although my phone says 97 for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 000 SXUS51 KOKX 181657 OSOOKX NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 100 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011 CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS CENTRAL PARK MOSUNNY 93 67 42 CALM 29.96F HX 96 LAGUARDIA APRT MOSUNNY 92 61 35 W14G23 29.93F HX 92 KENNEDY INTL MOSUNNY 92 67 43 SW21 29.94F HX 95 NEWARK/LIBERTY PTSUNNY 96 63 33 SW16G25 29.93F HX 97 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 000 SXUS51 KOKX 181657 OSOOKX NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 100 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011 CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS CENTRAL PARK MOSUNNY 93 67 42 CALM 29.96F HX 96 LAGUARDIA APRT MOSUNNY 92 61 35 W14G23 29.93F HX 92 KENNEDY INTL MOSUNNY 92 67 43 SW21 29.94F HX 95 NEWARK/LIBERTY PTSUNNY 96 63 33 SW16G25 29.93F HX 97 This should be a lesson learned for those people who think a SW wind would make JFK several degrees cooler than the other city locations. And a signal for what may happen later in the week. It's 21mph off the ocean and still not cooling anyone down lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 This should be a lesson learned for those people who think a SW wind would make JFK several degrees cooler than the other city locations. And a signal for what may happen later in the week. It's 21mph off the ocean and still not cooling anyone down lol. Yea usually south winds kill you guys. How much water is crossed with a southwest wind? Not much, and at this time of year the water's so much warmer anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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