flwxwatcher45 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 That will definitely clear away any Saharan dust in the Eastern Atlantic. Dustbuster!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Well, I wonder if that's the wave the EURO brings into the SE Gulf in 10 days. Low latitude at least .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Well well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Well well... Yep. It looks like that will coincide with a Kelvin wave passage early next week. Definitely something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 It looks like a possible early start to the cape verde season, the last early cape verde season start was 2008, and the people of houston unfortunately know what happened later that season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 It looks like a possible early start to the cape verde season, the last early cape verde season start was 2008, and the people of houston unfortunately know what happened later that season The last real Florida style storm to hit a populated part of Texas was 28 years ago. Although Alicia wouldn't be fit to tie the shoe laces of Charley or Andrew. The last Texas storm worthy of Andrew's shoelaces... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 A rather impressive CV wave near 35W is beginning to get 'that' look. We'll need to watch this feature in the days ahead as a Kelvin Wave looks to enter the Basin and a more favorable MJO pulse heads E. It's getting close to time when eyes will need to look further E in the Atlantic to those Cape Verde systems... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 The last real Florida style storm to hit a populated part of Texas was 28 years ago. Although Alicia wouldn't be fit to tie the shoe laces of Charley or Andrew. The last Texas storm worthy of Andrew's shoelaces... Scott747 has always doubted that Alicia was a real 100-kt cyclone. It's tough to say, but if it was a Cat 2, it sure was a solid one. Alicia was the first landfalling 'cane I tracked. I got very excited about it. Landfall was forecast to happen at 3 or 4 am, and I asked my parents' permission to get up in the middle of the night to watch CNN and track it. (I was thirteen and my parents were rather strict about things like bedtime and so on.) They said "yes". OK, sorry to wax nostalgic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Scott747 has always doubted that Alicia was a real 100-kt cyclone. It's tough to say, but if it was a Cat 2, it sure was a solid one. Alicia was the first landfalling 'cane I tracked. I got very excited about it. Landfall was forecast to happen at 3 or 4 am, and I asked my parents' permission to get up in the middle of the night to watch CNN and track it. (I was thirteen and my parents were rather strict about things like bedtime and so on.) They said "yes". OK, sorry to wax nostalgic. My mother let me have a day off school to track Hurricane Lili's devastating Category 4 landfall in Louisiana. I never assumed a ragged Category 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCANE Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Very deep WV with the wave along 35W. CMC already has it initialized at a relatively high-pressure, borderline warm core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCANE Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 MIMIC-TPW looks good along 35W. Good crest, CCW rotation, and convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 You can follow the wave at 35W across the Atlantic to near Florida in 240 Hrs on last nights EURO http://raleighwx.ame...rtSLP_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCANE Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Scott747 has always doubted that Alicia was a real 100-kt cyclone. It's tough to say, but if it was a Cat 2, it sure was a solid one. Alicia was the first landfalling 'cane I tracked. I got very excited about it. Landfall was forecast to happen at 3 or 4 am, and I asked my parents' permission to get up in the middle of the night to watch CNN and track it. (I was thirteen and my parents were rather strict about things like bedtime and so on.) They said "yes". OK, sorry to wax nostalgic. Wouldn't bat an eye if it was downgraded in any re-analysis. Going old school. This goes back when I really started being dismissive about pressure readings and took some heat for it. http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/119679-which-past-landfalling-usa-hurricanes-would-you-downgrade-or-upgrade/page__view__findpost__p__1690583 I think we are beginning to learn that the pressure reading may be somewhat misleading in correlation to wind speed. The only sustained winds found over 100 kt were at flight level right before landfall by recon. The question is how fast was it really intensifying before landfall? The article you mentioned - http://chps.sam.usac...meteorology.htm Brings up a interesting discussion about Alicia having a double-concentric eyewall, along with providing impressive images.. http://chps.sam.usac...icia/Fig2-5.htm Looks as if it was completing an ERC at landfall and beginning a RI cycle. I'm just not sold on the winds making it down to the surface @ 110. From eyewitnesses at the actual landfall point, San Luis Pass/Jamaica Beach felt that Carla's winds were somewhat comparable to those of Alicia. Fairly significant time between storms, and no question that Alicia's actual winds surpassed those of Carla in the defined area of landfall, albeit small. Again this could be due to Alicia having a very tiny area of true cat 3 winds, if in fact she did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 The Euro and Canadian suggest a developing disturbance near Hispaniola around the 144 hour mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 The 12z Euro does not outright develop the wave at 35w but enough to raise an eyebrow once nearing the Islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 For those more knowledgeable than myself, what is this north-east of Bermuda? Tropical? Sub-Tropical? Nothing in particular? Clearly showing rotation in animations and convection is trying to build over the 'center'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 For those more knowledgeable than myself, what is this north-east of Bermuda? Tropical? Sub-Tropical? Nothing in particular? Clearly showing rotation in animations and convection is trying to build over the 'center'. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/11071912/64.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 For those more knowledgeable than myself, what is this north-east of Bermuda? Tropical? Sub-Tropical? Nothing in particular? Clearly showing rotation in animations and convection is trying to build over the 'center'. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... T.S. BRET IS E OF THE N FLORIDA MOVING NNE. SEE ABOVE. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N54W 31N60W 33N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 39N29W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 27N52W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT...WHILE T.S. BRET MOVES NE...AND THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W AT 20 KT. This is the only mention of it by NHC, and they don't even address the swirl directly. I'm actually a bit disappointed they don't at least mention the robust surface circulation, even if it is still cold core and soon to be absorbed by the mid-latitude trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 The Euro and Canadian suggest a developing disturbance near Hispaniola around the 144 hour mark. Add the UKMET as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 This is the only mention of it by NHC, and they don't even address the swirl directly. I'm actually a bit disappointed they don't at least mention the robust surface circulation, even if it is still cold core and soon to be absorbed by the mid-latitude trough. It's a baroclinic low outside the deep tropics. It falls under OPC's jurisdiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 The GFS bit o' vorticity North of Hispaniola about six days out is not blowing my socks off. The Euro looks a lot nicer, but loses it. I remain interested, but non-plussed. However, since not even the Canadian got Bret even at 24 hours, I am, as always, glass one eight full optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 The area east of Bermuda is now 99L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 The area east of Bermuda is now 99L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Lemonized TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BRET...LOCATED ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH TOWARD COOLER WATER. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $ FORECASTER BROWN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
futuremet Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 http://met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/P07L.html P07L 13N, 34W 700hPa ECMWF: It takes 24 hours to get a pouch, but then P07L maintains itself until at least 120 hours, but it does not intensify like UKMET. GFS: A distinct, large pouch at analysis. As other models have been suggesting, a secondary OW max develops on the eastern side of the pouch at 24 hours. While other models intensify that as the main pouch center, it is only temporary for GFS. GFS continues to hold to its story of the initial western pouch maintaining itself, although as a weakening pouch that moves southwest and then northwest into the Caribbean. UKMET: The secondary OW max development now occurs quickly at 12 hours. P07L then intensifies into, most likely, a tropical storm. NOGAPS: The secondary eastern development occurs at 24 hours. Unlike UKMET, NOGAPS then dissipates P07L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 00z GFS is relatively quiet for the next 10-14 days. Interesting to see if that changes over the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.