HurricaneJosh Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 OK-- we're going to see a nice cyclone form during this thread. Mark my words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 so...about that 18z run...i'd love to see a costa rican landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 13, 2011 Author Share Posted July 13, 2011 so...about that 18z run...i'd love to see a costa rican landfall You know... When we meet in person, I think you'll think twice before launching needless hurtyhurtz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 OK-- we're going to see a nice cyclone form during this thread. Mark my words. It would be nice to see some sort of tropical cyclone down here before I leave in August. I haven't seen a cane since 05, that's 6 friggin years. Feels like something is missing in my life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 I've composed yet another tropical weather outlook on a couple of minor systems. You can find the link below http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2011/07/13/tropics-remain-relatively-quiet-but-threats-loom-on-the-horizon/ The main two threats continue to be the system that has recently moved out into the Bay of Campeche, and the models latching onto the Southern Caribbean disturbance. The system in the Gulf will likely run out of time before any sort of tropical cyclone development, but it can't be ruled out we get an attempt at rapid genesis similar to Marco (2008), since upper level winds are favorable, and sea surface temperatures are very warm. Land surrounding the system on three sides might also help to create frictional convergence which might enhance convection and vorticity. The second system looks like crap right now, but beyond 48 hours is when the real development is expected to take place, with both the EURO and GFS on board for something forming in the Caribbean than then quickly shifting westward to the East Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 I've composed yet another tropical weather outlook on a couple of minor systems. You can find the link below http://philstropical...on-the-horizon/ The main two threats continue to be the system that has recently moved out into the Bay of Campeche, and the models latching onto the Southern Caribbean disturbance. The system in the Gulf will likely run out of time before any sort of tropical cyclone development, but it can't be ruled out we get an attempt at rapid genesis similar to Marco (2008), since upper level winds are favorable, and sea surface temperatures are very warm. Land surrounding the system on three sides might also help to create frictional convergence which might enhance convection and vorticity. The second system looks like crap right now, but beyond 48 hours is when the real development is expected to take place, with both the EURO and GFS on board for something forming in the Caribbean than then quickly shifting westward to the East Pacific. It has been ignored by the NHC, and it deserves invest designation, IMO. It has been moving faster than progged, and it has gained more latitude also than forecasted. Looking at the TWD from a minutes ago I see why it has been mostly ignored: TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDS ALONG 21N87W TO 14N88W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND SW GULF OF MEXICO. BASED ON THE AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP AND BE FARTHER W THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED. THE WAVE WILL LIKELY BE RELOCATED ON THE NEXT ANALYSIS. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO LIE UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS HELPING ENHANCE CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 91W-95W...AND FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 88W-90W I think it has organized a bit more these last few hours, and has a small chance of TD designation before landfall in ~12-18 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Week-one seems pretty straight forward. More concerned about the transition into August for now. Still not sure when things will pop. Could be another late bloomer like last year. ...FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 It has been ignored by the NHC, and it deserves invest designation, IMO. It has been moving faster than progged, and it has gained more latitude also than forecasted. Looking at the TWD from a minutes ago I see why it has been mostly ignored: I think it has organized a bit more these last few hours, and has a small chance of TD designation before landfall in ~12-18 hrs. I would love to see some microwave... its got about 6 hours over open water before landfall, and the IR is suggesting it has a closed circulation based on the eastward building convection south of the warm spot on IR. This is staring to feel like a Marco redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 PGI02L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 This little disturbance has been fun to watch the past few hours. It's really spun up quickly and the 8 AM advisory has it at 10% chance of development... Unfortunately it will run out of time before it's really able to get its act together... Who knows, this may be a TD before landfall like WXMX suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS FORMEDOVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS LOW...ACCOMPANIED BYCLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERNMEXICO AND HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Here is an animated IR loop from overnight... well defined banding features for a lemon. This is exactly what I was concerned about in my discussion last night, with rapid TCG being a possibility given the favorable conditions and orientation of the coastline orientation that lends itself to a quickly developing vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Its difficult to obtain high resolution microwave imagery when an Invest is not designated, but it seems that AMSR got a pass last night, and it shows a well defined disturbance with banding features. I think this is arguably close if not already TD status, although I think first light visible will reveal much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Invest 97L has been declared. its up on the NRL page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 There's a ton of convection firing up on the eastern side of the system, but it doesn't appear to have a great deal of circulation to it just yet... If only this had another 12-24 hours over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 I don't see any obs to support a TD in the BoC at this time, but it is a reminder just how quickly things can change in the Western Basin. This may not be the last we see this area flare up in the days ahead. The monsoonal trough could very well spin up a couple more of these disturbances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 I don't see any obs to support a TD in the BoC at this time, but it is a reminder just how quickly things can change in the Western Basin. This may not be the last we see this area flare up in the days ahead. The monsoonal trough could very well spin up a couple more of these disturbances. I'm seeing some evidence of rotation in the surface obs along the Mexican coast. Of course the winds are pretty weak, but that could certainly be a different case closer to the center. I finally found a good microwave pass from earlier this morning. It looks better organized on IR now, but it seems there was some evidence of a circulation back at 8z. I am certainly in agreement that this monsoonal wave has more tricks up its sleeve. The southern Caribbean remains pretty convectively active currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Gotta give kudos to Phil for nailing this one so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 I am certainly in agreement that this monsoonal wave has more tricks up its sleeve. The southern Caribbean remains pretty convectively active currently. Another area to watch is the approach of the Eastern Caribbean disturbance (P04L) as it moves further W... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. UPDATED...THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO SHOW THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. WHILE THERE IS LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT... THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING INLAND LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Mexican Radar shows some nice rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Another area to watch is the approach of the Eastern Caribbean disturbance (P04L) as it moves further W... Yep, in fact, this might be the very wave that will help to pull the monsoonal low further north to allow TCG in the Southern Caribbean. The GFS continues to be aggressive in the 06z run... showing a decent tropical storm in 96 hours (I see one 50 knot wind vector at 850mb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Another area to watch is the approach of the Eastern Caribbean disturbance (P04L) as it moves further W... Euro doesn't do much with P04L, on the other hand, we have a little bit of a cut off low pinched off from the Westerlies that might pull it a bit further North, ie, make it a bit more interesting than 97L, if it does try to form. Maybe we'll get an EastPac system out of this if the midlevels can survive the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Mexican Radar shows some nice rotation Thanks for posting that, I didn't know the radar was back up. Looks like we have some sort of circulation that is close to the surface, given that the radar location is pretty close. to the echoes. Time is running out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Surprise! Up to 50% now. 1. UPDATED...THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROMMEXICO SHOW THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILESEAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. WHILE THERE IS LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING ATROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING INLAND LATER TODAY. REGARDLESSOF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THESOUTHWESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT15 TO 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 It's an interesting little feature, but there simply isn't enough time for this to get classified. I think it's only looking good this morning since central convection is less organized, allowing us to see the circulation that was developing under the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 The early morning High Resolution Visible Loop does hint a bit of a spin developing NNE of the ABC Islands in the Southern Caribbean for what it's worth. Edit to add: Kudos to the GFS for 'sniffing' out the pattern last week when some had their doubts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Vindication! but I think it won't make it, the convection pattern is just too disorganized attm, and it has 6-8 hours at most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 Talk about 97-L here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/21438-invest-97-l/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted July 13, 2011 Share Posted July 13, 2011 The SW Caribbean thing over the next few days sure is interesting. I don't recall very many TC genesis points this far south outside of Oct/Nov. The westerly wind burst over the far east Pacific is quite anomalous and unusual as well. This appears to be due to a superposition of the westerly wind anomalies associated with both the amplified MJO phase 8/1 and the Kelvin wave passage. At the very least, it's likely that we'll see an E-Pac TC out of this. TC genesis in the SW Caribbean is something I have less confidence about, but the GFS has cut down on most of its false alarms since the upgrade, so it is plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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