MarkSC Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Just about all globals appear on board with a strengthing cyclone once at 50-55west. Even the conservative ukmet model is also onboard with this idea. Yes, patience is needed. None of the models forecast development prior to 55 west. On the other hand, they all forecast development after that point. I would be extremely surprised if we don't get something given the conditions and the model support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Re: Dean in 2007... That was probably the longest tracked storm ever for me. Models did well forecasting that it would develop well before it actually did, and given that it tracked all the way across, that meant I was getting questioned on it for a solid 15-16 days lol. Track wise, models struggled for awhile. Many early on had it near Florida / SE and some GFS runs even took it fishing. As time wore on, it kept trending south and west, with the Euro the first to latch on to the correct track, and once it did so (I think about 6-7 days before it made landfall), it never budged, while some models like the stupid GFDL kept wanting to destroy Houston even when landfall was within a few days. By the way, I think the takeaway is still that models see a favorable pattern, and I still can make the case that next week overall should be more favorable than this week, but not until the system gets closer to the islands. But Phil and Adam's points of caution should be kept in mind as well. Definitely no slam dunk here. If something does form though, the pattern looks right for it to be a legit U.S. threat somewhere. That could be FL / Southeast, but we can't take the Gulf out of the equation right now either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Definitely no slam dunk here. If something does form though, the pattern looks right for it to be a legit U.S. threat somewhere. That could be FL / Southeast, but we can't take the Gulf out of the equation right now either. Did you read and paraphrase the forecast I sent out this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I can understand why forecasters here are being bearish right now-- y'all have been getting burned hard this season, so it makes sense. Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Did you read and paraphrase the forecast I sent out this morning Ha! This is where I break out the old saying... Great minds think alike! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 New thread here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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