Viva La Sizzle

[#NoPoles]

still 86/68

hey a weather palindrome!

[Mr Torchey]

I endorse DQ's mint oreo blizzards, what a summer treat on a perfect summer evening.

[A-L-E-X]

I'm still at 83.4/70 right now, just horrible, even with clear skies we're refusing to radiate. Low was a miserable 78.2F last night. We'll get below that tonight, but probably not by more than a few degrees with the west winds. I think I should finally be able to shut off the A/C and open the windows tomorrow night as we're supposed to get down to 59-60F finally.

And Joe, we badly need some rain down here. How much precipitation have you recorded down there? I've had only 0.54" for the month of July, and my vegetable garden is starting to suffer. I watered everything a lot tonight, but the tomatoes/peppers in containers were starting to get a hint of wilt, the 7-foot corn plants absorbed a ton of water, and the petunias look a bit withered even though they are planted in partial shade. I hadn't watered in a few days since I like to encourage proper root development, but I'm beginning to think I should have pulled the trigger yesterday. The problem is that my gardens are all spread out and difficult to reach with a hose/sprinkler, and watering out of a can takes forever in these dry conditions for larger garden areas.

And it's not looking as if it's about to get much better....NWS has mid 80s here every day for the next week with sunny/mostly sunny pretty much every day. With WNW winds following this front, the atmosphere is going to dry out significantly, and that's going to cut down the soil moisture as well. I'm starting to get a bit concerned, I mean I can always water more, but there's nothing like a good rain. Despite the warm temperatures, the subsidence under this high pressure looks strong enough to eliminate any thunderstorm chances. Atmosphere has been very capped lately despite 95/70 conditions. I thought we'd see thunderstorms with this cold front, but we barely had a passing cloud all afternoon.

You should be excited that the hot summer may work out after all. I hit 98 today and I fully expect to hit 100+ when we get the big heat surge so I will be watering every day, as should you. It's still in the upper 80s here and I expect it will be 90+ again tomorrow.

You didnt even get that hot today though, Nate, it wasn't that extreme up your way.

[nzucker]

Thats incredible HPN just to your east is 79/66

HPN Is usually a couple degrees cooler than here...the airport is located on a largely flat, rural field at 400' elevation. The flat area with no development ensures they radiate decently at night. Dobbs Ferry is very hilly and a bit closer to the urban heat island, so it's harder to cool down. I definitely think the terrain is the biggest factor, as I'm surrounded by a 70-acre nature preserve (beech-maple forest) with suburban lawns and gardens down the street, thus it's not akin to inhabiting a concrete jungle like Manhattan. HPN also has a bit more latitude, probably worth a few tenths of a degree.

I wish we cooled down better here...I spent my first 17 summers in the Poconos at 1500' elevation in a bowl-shaped valley that radiates rapidly. The average low in July there is 55F; you usually get at least 3-4 nights in the 40s during July, and 40s are quite the norm in the first half of June and last part of August. During July 2009, the area had several nights that dipped to 40-41F, incredible in the heart of summer. We've never had AC up there at the vacation home, never needed it. As long as it's clear, it's cool. You often need to throw a blanket over yourself when you wake up chilly at 4am. After tonight, NWS has some cool temperatures up there, with lows of 53, 53, 56, 58 through Saturday evening.

[Mr Torchey]

HPN Is usually a couple degrees cooler than here...the airport is located on a largely flat, rural field at 400' elevation. The flat area with no development ensures they radiate decently at night. Dobbs Ferry is very hilly and a bit closer to the urban heat island, so it's harder to cool down. I definitely think the terrain is the biggest factor, as I'm surrounded by a 70-acre nature preserve (beech-maple forest) with suburban lawns and gardens down the street, thus it's not akin to inhabiting a concrete jungle like Manhattan. HPN also has a bit more latitude, probably worth a few tenths of a degree.

I wish we cooled down better here...I spent my first 17 summers in the Poconos at 1500' elevation in a bowl-shaped valley that radiates rapidly. The average low in July there is 55F; you usually get at least 3-4 nights in the 40s during July, and 40s are quite the norm in the first half of June and last part of August. During July 2009, the area had several nights that dipped to 40-41F, incredible in the heart of summer. We've never had AC up there at the vacation home, never needed it. As long as it's clear, it's cool. You often need to throw a blanket over yourself when you wake up chilly at 4am. After tonight, NWS has some cool temperatures up there, with lows of 53, 53, 56, 58 through Saturday evening.

Oh I agree, its basically backwoods interior sw fairfield county, about a driver from the Greenwich, NY state border. Certainly a cooler place.

[nzucker]

You should be excited that the hot summer may work out after all. I hit 98 today and I fully expect to hit 100+ when we get the big heat surge so I will be watering every day, as should you. It's still in the upper 80s here and I expect it will be 90+ again tomorrow.

You didnt even get that hot today though, Nate, it wasn't that extreme up your way.

This was a preliminary summer forecast I made in April...I went warm for much of the country against climatology of post-Niña summers...my thoughts are working out very well, though I had more of a +NAO signal. I was thinking that the -EPO would be the large reason for cool anomalies in the Northwest/Northern Rockies as we had in Summer 2010...that was correct in June, but the NAO has turned out more negative than I anticipated, though it looks to be moderating. I wish I had shifted the trough axis west a bit more and gotten the heat slightly further north, but it's a good map considering that many were expecting a relatively cool summer for much of the nation, particularly the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. In any case, my map is looking pretty accurate:

]

The heat has not been extreme here, 92F the last two days, but consistent upper 80s-low 90s with no rain can dry out the soil real fast in July. Having only .54" in the bucket with half of the month gone, and no rain in sight, is a bit worrisome. You shouldn't be watering every day though, nonetheless: plants develop deeper and healthier roots when they are watered less frequently. Even for the tomatoes I grow in containers, which dry out faster than the ones in the ground, I only water once every 3 days. If it is very hot/dry like now, I will water every other day, but no more. Overwatering is a frequent mistake that causes plants to develop shallow, weak roots. It's OK to let the plants wilt slightly by the end of a hot day. I have a plot of 15 corn plants; they are 6-7 feet tall with a decent root structure, and thus I have only watered them twice this entire summer. I have already harvested half a dozen tomatoes and have ears forming on the corn, so everything seems to be doing real well.

I doubt I can hit 90F tomorrow. 850s are dropping pretty fast...We should get down to the upper 60s by daybreak and then warm into the upper 80s. Urban locations like where you live have a decent shot of 90F as you say.

[HoarfrostHubb]

73.1/68 here

Already cooler than anytime last night

still running the AC --- BECAUSE I CAN!!!

[A-L-E-X]

Nate, I dont water the same plants every day, I basically alternate between my front and back yards. Also, June was over +3.3 here and July is topping that and I think if the big heat surge holds that both July and August could end up above normal here. We've had even less rain than you have and the grass turned yellow even before this current bout of heat. My location isn't urban but I have the advantage of being downwind from the city lol.

[nzucker]

73.1/68 here

Already cooler than anytime last night

still running the AC --- BECAUSE I CAN!!!

Never seen someone get so excited about AC. It's pretty standard across the country, and it's been that way for like 30 years lol. I guess mountain men in Massachusetts aren't accustomed to such luxuries.

Nate, I dont water the same plants every day, I basically alternate between my front and back yards. Also, June was over +3.3 here and July is topping that and I think if the big heat surge holds that both July and August could end up above normal here. We've had even less rain than you have and the grass turned yellow even before this current bout of heat. My location isn't urban but I have the advantage of being downwind from the city lol.

Yes, you have more reason to water than I. June wasn't as warm here compared to average, and we had some pretty decent rains. There isn't much yellowing of lawns yet, although I think there will be in a couple weeks with this pattern continuing.

I'm still not sure that we're getting huge heat in the long range, looks to be a battle between the cool high pressure/jet weakness over Quebec and the death ridge trying to bleed NE from the Plains. I think the Northeast/Upper Mid-Atlantic will continue to be a battleground with short, but increasingly intense, bouts of heat. I doubt we'll see any extended heat waves like 1953 this summer due to these fronts from Southeast Canada continuing to bring in a cooler northerly flow.

[ORH_wxman]

Never seen someone get so excited about AC. It's pretty standard across the country, and it's been that way for like 30 years lol. I guess mountain men in Massachusetts aren't accustomed to such luxuries.

I don't have AC...never have up here. Only when I was down in Texas with my dad. There's probably only about 10 days on average I truly want it in the summer. Days like the last few where it was mid to upper 80s with annoying humidity. 81F and dry is very manageable which is often the case when places down south are 90+ even if somewhat dry. Once it gets above 88F or so, even if its 50s dewpoints, it becomes a bit much.

Therefore I don't bother with it because of the frequency of which its truly needed.

[nzucker]

I don't have AC...never have up here. Only when I was down in Texas with my dad. There's probably only about 10 days on average I truly want it in the summer. Days like the last few where it was mid to upper 80s with annoying humidity. 81F and dry is very manageable which is often the case when places down south are 90+ even if somewhat dry. Once it gets above 88F or so, even if its 50s dewpoints, it becomes a bit much.

Therefore I don't bother with it because of the frequency of which its truly needed.

We used to spend all our summers up in the Poconos since my parents are both teachers, and we've never had AC at our home up there. We were rarely uncomfortable despite being there from mid-June through Labor Day, and for those muggy nights we'd just turn on a fan. Average for July there is around 77/55; it's not a hot climate at 1500' in a well-protected valley, surrounded by higher ridges around 2200' that allow for great radiational cooling. The difference between here in NYC metro and the PA house can be 15F on a clear, calm night. Also, fall seems to start so much earlier in mountainous locations that radiate well...the longer nights really do allow for a great deal more cooling, and you start to notice frequent 40s slipping into the forecast by around August 20th there. I still consider late August the "dog days" here in Dobbs Ferry, but it's actually the start of fall up there at 1500'...leaves start to turn red, nights can easily drop into the low 40s, you get a few days with highs in the 60s. I find the difference between July and August to be much more pronounced in the Poconos...here it's all hot.

We only have A/C in the bedrooms here in NYC metro. Our house is old, and we're not going to waste the money/electricity on central AC. We deal with the heat in the rest of the house, but we like to sleep comfortably. My parents still spend the bulk of the summer in PA, but I work here.

[A-L-E-X]

Never seen someone get so excited about AC. It's pretty standard across the country, and it's been that way for like 30 years lol. I guess mountain men in Massachusetts aren't accustomed to such luxuries.

Yes, you have more reason to water than I. June wasn't as warm here compared to average, and we had some pretty decent rains. There isn't much yellowing of lawns yet, although I think there will be in a couple weeks with this pattern continuing.

I'm still not sure that we're getting huge heat in the long range, looks to be a battle between the cool high pressure/jet weakness over Quebec and the death ridge trying to bleed NE from the Plains. I think the Northeast/Upper Mid-Atlantic will continue to be a battleground with short, but increasingly intense, bouts of heat. I doubt we'll see any extended heat waves like 1953 this summer due to these fronts from Southeast Canada continuing to bring in a cooler northerly flow.

Yes, but I think that the dryness of the ground plus the intensity of the heat can get us to triple digit heaven even if the heat only lasts 4-5 days.

[nzucker]

Yes, but I think that the dryness of the ground plus the intensity of the heat can get us to triple digit heaven even if the heat only lasts 4-5 days.

Triple digit heaven? You are a sick puppy, Alex.

Another awful night that requires A/C. 77/67 and muggy here, gross again.

[A-L-E-X]

Triple digit heaven? You are a sick puppy, Alex.

Another awful night that requires A/C. 77/67 and muggy here, gross again.

lol well if it happens only once or twice in the whole summer I think everyone can deal with it. I mean we're not in Texas-- could you imagine living in Dallas when they had like 50 straight days of over 100+?

You remember you were talking about how extreme summers in the 30s were-- well I think Texas has had their most extreme summers rather recently.

[A-L-E-X]

Triple digit heaven? You are a sick puppy, Alex.

Another awful night that requires A/C. 77/67 and muggy here, gross again.

Your dew point is way higher than mine -- it's 81 here with a dew point of only 58 ! LOL I'm downsloping off of Mt. Zucker, no wonder it's drier and warmer here!

[nzucker]

lol well if it happens only once or twice in the whole summer I think everyone can deal with it. I mean we're not in Texas-- could you imagine living in Dallas when they had like 50 straight days of over 100+?

You remember you were talking about how extreme summers in the 30s were-- well I think Texas has had their most extreme summers rather recently.

0z GFS is very warm in the mid-range...20C 850s up to James Bay/Hudson Bay, and the East Coast starting to bake as well at Day 5:

Big heat by Day 7 across the entire country, NYC up to 20C at 850mb, 100F looks possible:

[A-L-E-X]

I'm still trying to figure out why your dew point is like 10 degrees higher than mine and I'm the one close to the Ocean lol.

[nzucker]

I'm still trying to figure out why your dew point is like 10 degrees higher than mine and I'm the one close to the Ocean lol.

I'm down to 76.2/66 now, so it has dropped slightly. I wonder if there could be any connection to the west winds coming right off the Hudson River, which is about a mile from here.

HPN is at 72/63, NW @5mph. NWS just increased the low temperature to 70F, not much chance we cool down with the downsloping breeze and still mild 850s.

[Mr Torchey]

80/60

Beautiful morning out there today, another warm one. Mid month heatwave looks to be on track as things really heat up next week............

BDR +3.4

BOS+ 4.2

PVD+ 3.2

ORH+ 3.3

Viva La Sizzle

[weatherMA]

We used to spend all our summers up in the Poconos since my parents are both teachers, and we've never had AC at our home up there. We were rarely uncomfortable despite being there from mid-June through Labor Day, and for those muggy nights we'd just turn on a fan. Average for July there is around 77/55; it's not a hot climate at 1500' in a well-protected valley, surrounded by higher ridges around 2200' that allow for great radiational cooling. The difference between here in NYC metro and the PA house can be 15F on a clear, calm night. Also, fall seems to start so much earlier in mountainous locations that radiate well...the longer nights really do allow for a great deal more cooling, and you start to notice frequent 40s slipping into the forecast by around August 20th there. I still consider late August the "dog days" here in Dobbs Ferry, but it's actually the start of fall up there at 1500'...leaves start to turn red, nights can easily drop into the low 40s, you get a few days with highs in the 60s. I find the difference between July and August to be much more pronounced in the Poconos...here it's all hot.

We only have A/C in the bedrooms here in NYC metro. Our house is old, and we're not going to waste the money/electricity on central AC. We deal with the heat in the rest of the house, but we like to sleep comfortably. My parents still spend the bulk of the summer in PA, but I work here.

Yep. I don't mind the heat during the day at all. I just hate sleeping uncomfortably. I can deal with it without AC at all other times.

[Mr Torchey]

86/59

Viva la Sizzle is on the schnizzle until later this weekend, but next week and beyond look mighty toasty.

Best summer ever rolls on with sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 80s and no humidity

[Baroclinic Zone]

86/59

Viva la Sizzle is on the schnizzle until later this weekend, but next week and beyond look mighty toasty.

Best summer ever rolls on with sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 80s and no humidity

84/61 today. Busting on the low side it would appear. BOX still has me forecasted for 90F.

[Mr Torchey]

84/61 today. Busting on the low side it would appear. BOX still has me forecasted for 90F.

Next 5 days look superb Bob, hope you enjoy them, really need some rain though. Last three days of work outside took there toll on this 40 yr old body, heading to the beach for a swim and take a nap in the beach chair

[Baroclinic Zone]

Next 5 days look superb Bob, hope you enjoy them, really need some rain though. Last three days of work outside took there toll on this 40 yr old body, heading to the beach for a swim and take a nap in the beach chair

I can't stand the beach. Gimme a beer and my backyard and I am good.

[free_man]

High of 83.5, 79.7 now. cool outside without the sun.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I can't stand the beach. Gimme a beer and my backyard and I am good.

Really? I do enjoy the beach, I just hate the 2 hour drive to get to the ones I like.

Anyway, high of 81F here so far, BOX called for 83, so a little close, but still low.

Lots of clouds...

Finished painting, installing a new lighting fixture (has not yet caught fire) and a new mirror.

Lawn can wait 1 more day...

[Mr Torchey]

89/58

west wind @12

hot and dry, best combo

[yoda]

588 DM heights near BOS at 93 hrs on the 18z GFS

Just north of BOS at 105

[powderfreak]

89/58

west wind @12

hot and dry, best combo

That is pretty sweet... I'll admit I do sort of enjoy dry heat. Dews in the 50s with temps near 90F can lead to some nice summer afternoons at the swimming holes. Alas, its currently 61F here in -RN. 1/4" of rainfall so far.

I'm starting to think the heat next week is the real deal though; the last warm spell on Monday/Tuesday seemed to over-perform up here and even today was mid to upper 70s when it was supposed to be low to mid 70s. You can tell when the atmosphere starts verifying warmer than progged that the signal is starting to turn toward heat.

[yoda]

18z GFS at 216 (way way out there, I know) tries to get the 594 DM heights into BOX