Powerball Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 I'm assuming you're in Eastern Wayne county? I'm on the western fringe, and it's been either full sunshine or filtered sunshine most of the morning. Yep. I just want to completely maximize the potential while we have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 Cold front is well apparent on visible this morning. I figure less than two hours until it's through MBY. Will anything big fire off? SPC says not until it's further S/E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 Weird storm motion on those Ontario cells. Yeah the NAM and RUC showed something along the line of them moving like that too, almost moving E but building down the line SW at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 Cold front is well apparent on visible this morning. I figure less than two hours until its through MBY. Will anything big fire off? SPC says not until its further S/E. Ya I have my doubts, it seems like they always end up firing to our southeast. Lots of juice already with moisture pooling along and just southeast of the front, dew points in the low-mid 70's in northeast IL with DKB at 81/77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 Ya I have my doubts, it seems like they always end up firing to our southeast. Lots of juice already with moisture pooling along and just southeast of the front, dew points in the low-mid 70's in northeast IL with DKB at 81/77. Heading out for a bike/run now. Figure by the time I am really pushing my limits, winds will shift, dews will crash and I'll be refreshed to get the extra mile in. Cloud cover already overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted July 2, 2011 Author Share Posted July 2, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1053 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011 .UPDATE... NO UPDATE PLANNED AS THIS TIME...AS WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS NOW SWINGING THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN. A CONDITIONAL CHANCE OF SEVERE REMAINS WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY 4-8 PM. PLANNING ON 18Z DTX SOUNDING WHICH SHOULD HELP GAGE THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP IN PLACE. SURFACE DEW PTS AROUND/LOWER 70S HAVE ARRIVED...COUPLED WITH MAXES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES AROUND A 100 DEGREES. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES TRENDS...CLOUD COVER...AND CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THE CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS MAY BE JUST A DEGREE OR TWO TOO HIGH...BUT FULLY EXPECT TO REACH THE LOW END OF THE RANGE...THUS NO UPDATE. And a DTX multimedia briefing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 We have some friends who apparently were doing a fishing charter and did make it back in to Waukegan before this all hit. They took cover in the basement of one of the marinas. I don't know if this was their location. They lost the windshield on their boat and said there were several flipped sailboat. I'd say those high 75+ straight lines would have no issue doing all of that. I sent them the link to the pic and will see how they comment. Good thing they made it back ashore in time. Could have gotten pretty ugly if they had been caught off shore in that. Yeah 75mph winds could definitely toss some boats around. It's possible the winds might have been even higher being right there on the flat and open water near shore. Cold front just passed through here, so our severe threat is toast. What looked like an active holiday weekend has turned into a pretty benign weather pattern for us. Gonna be a nice weekend to be outside though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 Already 5000j/kg of cape southwest of Chicago based on 11am obs. Pretty damn impressive for so early. Should see some pretty decent storms later today along that front. Edit: Non supercell tornado probs up over 1 in that area as well. Mid-upper level winds are unimpressive, but with so much instability already in place the storms won't have to rely as much on mid-upper level support to become severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 Geez, Mount Pleasant, MI is currently 88/81, heat index of 106*F. Dewpoints are in the mid 70s across majority of southern Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 HRRR is showing some decent looking storms for later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1026 AM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011 DISCUSSION UPDATE 1025 AM CDT COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIP FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SE WI...NE AND W CENTRAL IL AND NE MO AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...NW WI AND N CENTRAL IA. TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S AT 15Z WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S RESULTING IN BAND OF HIGH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ALONG AND A BIT AHEAD OF THE THE COLD FRONT. MODEL PROGS OF VARIOUS INSTABILITY/ENERGY VALUES CONSISTENT IN SHIFTING THIS BAND S OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT HAVE IT STILL LINGERING OVER THE SE COUNTIES OF THE FA AT 00Z AS THE MAIN PUSH OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE TAIL END TRAILS BACK TO THE SW. BASED ON LATEST MODEL OUTPUT AND VSREF TIMING OF CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK CONSISTENT AT 20Z-21Z OVER FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MI AND S HALF OF CHI METRO AREA HAVE MAKE LITTLE CHANCE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. ONLY TRIED TO PUT A LITTLE MORE REFINED TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF POPS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVE. TRS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 HRRR shows the cap winning out for most of SEMI this evening, RUC looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 Widespread 5000+ MUCAPE in MI now. LI's <-10. I swear the instability we've been getting up here this year has been unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 I suspect they're going to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch shortly. Some storms are getting together near Cadillac and Big Rapids (MI). It'll also be interesting to see if any t'storm cluster develops a cold pool and becomes an MCS. That would enhance the severe weather threat in light of the unimpressive shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 I suspect they're going to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch shortly. Some storms are getting together near Cadillac and Big Rapids (MI). It'll also be interesting to see if any t'storm cluster develops a cold pool and becomes an MCS. That would enhance the severe weather threat in light of the unimpressive shear. Warning up there now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 Warning up there now Interestingly enough their grid forecast was partly sunny, they're NW of the SPC slight risk area and NW of the ADDS' covective outlook. http://aviationweather.gov/products/ccfp/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 91/75 now, heat index of 102*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 Didn't notice this, but DTX's 12z sounding showed almost 6000 j/kg MUCAPE. Schweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 Didn't notice this, but DTX's 12z sounding showed almost 6000 j/kg MUCAPE. Schweet At least according to that sounding we've reached the convective temperature, which is a plus. DTX is supposed to launch another one shortly (18z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted July 2, 2011 Author Share Posted July 2, 2011 Warning up there now Did they really have to warn two whole counties for that size of a storm? I agree with Powerball, I'd at least expect an MD if not a watch within the next half hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 MD 1469 will probably be ours, coming out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 MD 1469 will probably be ours, coming out now. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1469.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted July 2, 2011 Author Share Posted July 2, 2011 MD 1469 will probably be ours, coming out now. Yep, WW likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm Watch SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 583 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 225 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 583 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MIC001-005-011-015-017-021-023-025-027-037-045-049-051-057-059- 063-065-067-069-073-075-077-081-087-091-093-099-107-111-115-117- 125-129-139-145-147-149-151-155-157-159-161-163-030300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0583.110702T1825Z-110703T0300Z/ MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCONA ALLEGAN ARENAC BARRY BAY BERRIEN BRANCH CALHOUN CASS CLINTON EATON GENESEE GLADWIN GRATIOT HILLSDALE HURON INGHAM IONIA IOSCO ISABELLA JACKSON KALAMAZOO KENT LAPEER LENAWEE LIVINGSTON MACOMB MECOSTA MIDLAND MONROE MONTCALM OAKLAND OGEMAW OTTAWA SAGINAW SANILAC SHIAWASSEE ST. CLAIR ST. JOSEPH TUSCOLA VAN BUREN WASHTENAW WAYNE $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted July 2, 2011 Author Share Posted July 2, 2011 WW out for much of Lower MI, Northern IN, and NW Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 So the cap is likely to be broken today? The higher the dew points the better likelihood the cap is overcome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 How long does it usually take for the 18z soundings to come out? I'm interested in seeing it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 Man, really hope something happens here. This much instability is exceedingly difficult to come by up here. Temperature of 94.5 + 74 degree dewpoint = Heat Index of 105 currently here in Canton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 How long does it usually take for the 18z soundings to come out? I'm interested in seeing it... There usually aren't 18z soundings unless offices send one up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted July 2, 2011 Author Share Posted July 2, 2011 There usually aren't 18z soundings unless offices send one up. DTX sent one up today. It's on the SPC soundings page now...looks like we're pretty much good to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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