phil882 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Thought I would get this thread started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 27, 2011 Author Share Posted June 27, 2011 Latest ECWMF looking more aggressive... down to 1000mb at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 27, 2011 Author Share Posted June 27, 2011 Looking at microwave there is a nice little feeder band into the Gulf, but it still looks like the bulk of the vorticity and deeper convection is over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Latest ECWMF looking more aggressive... down to 1000mb at 72 hours. I'm not necessarily saying it is too aggressive here, but it will be interesting to see if the Euro is once again too aggressive in lowering pressures overall this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 10M Winds: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 If the statistical model was right, sure, 42 knots isn't super aswesome, but since its still June, at least we'd be on the scoreboard, a first inning single, as it were. Climatology says Abbeville... 922 WHXX01 KWBC 271903 CHGHUR TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1903 UTC MON JUN 27 2011 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952011) 20110627 1800 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 110627 1800 110628 0600 110628 1800 110629 0600 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 20.0N 91.0W 20.9N 93.2W 21.3N 95.2W 21.3N 96.9W BAMD 20.0N 91.0W 20.8N 92.5W 21.3N 94.0W 21.7N 95.6W BAMM 20.0N 91.0W 20.8N 92.8W 21.2N 94.7W 21.3N 96.4W LBAR 20.0N 91.0W 20.8N 92.1W 21.6N 93.6W 22.6N 95.4W SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 34KTS 42KTS DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 34KTS 42KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 110629 1800 110630 1800 110701 1800 110702 1800 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 21.1N 98.5W 20.9N 101.2W 20.9N 103.5W 21.3N 106.6W BAMD 22.0N 97.3W 22.3N 101.0W 22.6N 104.6W 23.2N 108.2W BAMM 21.3N 98.1W 21.2N 101.3W 21.0N 104.5W 21.2N 107.8W LBAR 23.4N 97.4W 25.2N 101.7W 27.4N 105.6W 30.2N 109.1W SHIP 49KTS 62KTS 70KTS 69KTS DSHP 37KTS 28KTS 27KTS 28KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 20.0N LONCUR = 91.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 3KT LATM12 = 19.9N LONM12 = 90.5W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 2KT LATM24 = 19.7N LONM24 = 90.0W WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM $$ NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 95L continues to slowly organize this afternoon. Any surface low appears to be very broad, but it does seem to be wrapping up and looks to be a rather large system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 18z GFS takes it down to 1005mb east of tampico; looks like what's left eventually makes landfall near or just north of there as it falls apart. paints a few inches across the valley in tx, an area still in exceptional drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 95L continues to slowly organize this afternoon. Any surface low appears to be very broad, but it does seem to be wrapping up and looks to be a rather large system... Very broad, indeed. It will probably slowly tighten before landfall, but it'll still be a broad system by then. Shear is still high, but is slowly diminishing, and by tomorrow morning it will be <15kts over the LLC. This will be like watching paint dry for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Very broad, indeed. It will probably slowly tighten before landfall, but it'll still be a broad system by then. Shear is still high, but is slowly diminishing, and by tomorrow morning it will be <15kts over the LLC. This will be like watching paint dry for a while. Yep. Nothing interesting until tomorrow night-Wednesday probably. The really hard part of this forecast is the last 6-12 hrs before landfall, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 18z GFS takes it down to 1005mb east of tampico; looks like what's left eventually makes landfall near or just north of there as it falls apart. paints a few inches across the valley in tx, an area still in exceptional drought. The size of the disturbance plus the very moist environment associated with the anticyclonic flow in the upper levels will bring 5+ inches to Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon in Mexico. Because of the very favorable MJO phase, rains will probably linger over the area for several days up to a week. Drought will probably reverse in a good sized area of the country... heck, floods will become the main threat now for some parts along the Sierra Madre... Timeline for northeast MX in a year: Exceptional floods->exceptional drought->major flooding? We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 lolz. I ain't getting too excited about this one. It just doesn't look like it's going to have a whole lot of time/room-- and with that big, loose structure, how fast could it tighten? I guess I'm playing hater with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Yep. Nothing interesting until tomorrow night-Wednesday probably. The really hard part of this forecast is the last 6-12 hrs before landfall, imo. Another case of "imagine if it had X more hours over water"? At least the projected path is around the westernmost part of the Atlantic basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Another case of "imagine if it had X more hours over water"? At least the projected path is around the westernmost part of the Atlantic basin. Yep. The Euro has had that scenario for the last 3-4 runs. Phil kinda sniffed it out the other night, too, with the Gert analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSheridan12 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 and....50% I'm really just looking to get the name Arlene out of the way, its not a threatening enough name for my liking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Wow, I don't think I've seen NHC so aggressive based on model output before. Usually the probs are based on the current appearance of the system. I'm on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 This is just starting to get mildly interesting. I wouldn't exactly call it a "tingle", but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Fairly good agreement between the BAM models means GFS isn't forecasting bad shear. I like the climo model, but it is an outlier in bringing needed rain this way. ~40 knot TS per 0Z statistical guidance, it would use the name Arlene before July ends, and get us on the scoreboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Fairly good agreement between the BAM models means GFS isn't forecasting bad shear. I like the climo model, but it is an outlier in bringing needed rain this way. ~40 knot TS per 0Z statistical guidance, it would use the name Arlene before July ends, and get us on the scoreboard. June. And remember, this year we're counting the storm in the month in which it first became a depression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 June. And remember, this year we're counting the storm in the month in which it first became a depression. Because if the it's only 24kts the rest of the season is ruined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 I'm on board with this developing as well, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a moderate TS out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Might actually see an interesting recon flight tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Might actually see an interesting recon flight tomorrow. Unless something drastically changes overnight, I suspect nothing more than a broad circulation. Wednesday may be the better day re: development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Is the DGEX on board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Is the DGEX on board? Look Kush just dropped some troll magic on the invest. If it busts we know who to blame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 28, 2011 Author Share Posted June 28, 2011 I've been encouraged by the signs I'm seeing this afternoon and evening. Movement wise, this thing seems to be in no hurry to move out of the Gulf (with most of the convection still over land), and I think even given its current disorganized appearance that there is more than enough time to for this system to become a tropical depression or even a tropical storm. The upper level anticyclone isn't yet overhead, but its starting to build as evidence in the outflow to the east of 95L. If the GFS is right, by 18z tomorrow, the 200mb flow should be down to 5-10 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 0z HWRF - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 28, 2011 Author Share Posted June 28, 2011 Here are my latest thoughts on 95L... I'm thinking this system will eventually become a depression and even perhaps a tropical storm. Track looks straightforward, although there are a couple of initial factors that might slow down the forward motion initially. http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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