phil882 Posted June 28, 2011 Author Share Posted June 28, 2011 It looks like recon is going to find a broad surface circulation, although at this point its debatable if this system is well defined enough to be declared a TD. I'm in agreement with the folks that expect this to be around a 35-40 knot tropical storm at landfall. The circulation is still quite broad, and it simply won't have enough time to establish a decent inner core with landfall looming about 24-36 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 We have a cherry... TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY...BUT THE ACCOMPANYING SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE AREA. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BERG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 It's on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 28, 2011 Author Share Posted June 28, 2011 Looks like Recon is finding plenty of west winds although they are pretty light (10-15 knots). Seems like we have a closed llc though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 HDOBS have closed off a circulation, although it isn't particularly impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 12z Euro inits the low at 1006mb, which matches with the recon observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 12z Euro, 998mb at landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 28, 2011 Author Share Posted June 28, 2011 12z Euro inits the low at 1006mb, which matches with the recon observations. Edit: 12z Euro, 998mb at landfall What Jorge said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Euro- over 6 inches rain by Saturday morning MMMY, over 3 inches KBRO. Wish we'd get some, but its nice that people to our South will be getting serious drought relief. Edit to Add- Not copying and pasting Euro text data from my AccuWx PPV because of concerns about TOC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Euro- over 6 inches rain by Saturday morning MMMY, over 3 inches KBRO. Wish we'd get some, but its nice that people to our South will be getting serious drought relief. 12Z Euro KBRO 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK TUE 12Z 28-JUN 26.4 17.9 1013 88 49 0.00 589 578 TUE 18Z 28-JUN 28.2 18.0 1015 77 67 0.03 591 578 WED 00Z 29-JUN 27.6 18.1 1012 80 58 0.03 589 578 WED 06Z 29-JUN 26.3 17.9 1014 87 72 0.02 590 577 WED 12Z 29-JUN 25.5 17.4 1013 90 60 0.03 587 576 WED 18Z 29-JUN 27.4 17.3 1014 78 80 0.07 588 576 THU 00Z 30-JUN 26.1 17.3 1011 85 81 0.11 586 576 THU 06Z 30-JUN 25.5 17.0 1012 91 87 0.10 587 576 THU 12Z 30-JUN 25.2 17.2 1010 94 85 0.61 585 576 THU 18Z 30-JUN 26.5 17.3 1011 89 87 0.50 587 577 FRI 00Z 01-JUL 25.3 17.4 1011 92 86 1.00 585 576 FRI 06Z 01-JUL 25.8 17.5 1012 90 88 0.27 586 576 FRI 12Z 01-JUL 25.7 17.9 1011 90 77 0.14 586 576 FRI 18Z 01-JUL 26.3 17.9 1013 86 78 0.16 588 576 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Looking at HDOB data, looks like a judgement call on whether or not this gets upgraded to a TD at the normal time just before 4 pm CDT. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/2011/HDOB/USAF/URNT15/?C=M;O=D Smurf has seen 30 knot winds, apparently, unflagged, but flight level winds, I haven't seen any that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Looking at HDOB data, looks like a judgement call on whether or not this gets upgraded to a TD at the normal time just before 4 pm CDT. http://www.nhc.noaa....URNT15/?C=M;O=D Smurf has seen 30 knot winds, apparently, unflagged, but flight level winds, I haven't seen any that high. With no convection over the center, let alone persistent convection, I think it will be a no go. I think some strong convection around the center will show up tonight, as the upper level conditions improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Visible loop shows what looks to be a decently well-defined LLC here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 AL, 95, 2011062818, , BEST, 0, 209N, 933W, 30, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 With no convection over the center, let alone persistent convection, I think it will be a no go. I think some strong convection around the center will show up tonight, as the upper level conditions improve. The fact it is in the BoC and ~2 days to landfall, they may accept most of the convection displaced off the center and initiate advisories. If they want 48 hour lead time on a tropical storm watch, they'd have to act soon. The judgement call may even depend on a coordination call with the SMN/CNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Closed low, SMFR 30 mph.. Limited convection.. If it can burst a CDO tonight w/diurnal I expect a TD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 28, 2011 Author Share Posted June 28, 2011 With no convection over the center, let alone persistent convection, I think it will be a no go. I think some strong convection around the center will show up tonight, as the upper level conditions improve. Its a close call... seems like recon is now finding some 25-30 knots FL winds on the east side of the circulation. There were also a few uncontaminated SFMR reading at 30 knots. I think an upgrade is totally a judgement call as to whether there is enough organized convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 AL, 95, 2011062818, , BEST, 0, 209N, 933W, 30, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Wonder when our first calamity loop will surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Wonder when our first calamity loop will surface? Calamity Loop? Time for an LEK forecast track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Wonder when our first calamity loop will surface? I bet calamity is anxiously awaiting a real cyclone to show of those infamous loops. My hunch is we’ll see a lot of them this season as well… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Yo. Where's my cyclone? This thing's had all day. C'mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Special Update has 95L up to 90% now... SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WAS ABLE TO LOCATE A LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BERG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 28, 2011 Author Share Posted June 28, 2011 Special Update has 95L up to 90% now... Yea I think this is the right call... the llc is a bit elongated to from the recon observations and visible, so I'm sure they would like to see some more convective organization before pulling the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 No huge surprises here: I'd guess 45-50kts at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Calamity Loop? Time for an LEK forecast track? Maybe this evening....it'd be pretty boring, I'm afraid...Quite the lopsided system at this time...and it of course can change in a hurry, but I see this maxing out at a minimal TS before LF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 No huge surprises here: I'd guess 45-50kts at landfall. No that's a very radical forecast </sarcasm> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 This is arguably a TS right now given the wide swath of 40+ kt FL winds north of the center, peaking at 45-46 kt so far, and numerous unflagged SFMR > 35 kt. Center isn't well-defined, but I've seen worse-looking circulations classified in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 This is arguably a TS right now given the wide swath of 40+ kt FL winds north of the center, peaking at 45-46 kt so far, and numerous unflagged SFMR > 35 kt. Center isn't well-defined, but I've seen worse-looking circulations classified in the past. nicole? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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