EasternUSWX Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Afternoon... saw temp/dews of 102/55 and 101/53 at 5pm and 6pm, respectively. Dewpoints had started in the 60s that morning/early afternoon before dropping off. Also, I made a mistake... the lowest dewpoint was 53, not 52. Corrected the earlier posts. Ya figured it would start off more moist and dry out in the heat of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Thanks. That's pretty interesting. So we hit 100 with DPs in the 60s, but the temps stayed fairly level for a few hours as the DPs fell. Proves that you *can* get 100+ with DPs under 60, though it's kind of a backdoor way of getting there. drier air heats quicker.. we usually need/want some drying to get our hottest temps. dp 60+ is pretty common in the summer though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 12Z At DCA THU 97 FRI 103 SAT 103 SUN 103 MON 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 drier air heats quicker.. we usually need/want some drying to get our hottest temps. dp 60+ is pretty common in the summer though. Wasn't that 102 in June at DCA with DP's in the 60s? Or was that jump from dry afternoon heat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 drier air heats quicker.. we usually need/want some drying to get our hottest temps. dp 60+ is pretty common in the summer though. Makes sense, but I never really thought of it that way. Consider myself learned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Wasn't that 102 in June at DCA with DP's in the 60s? Or was that jump from dry afternoon heat? yeah but it was about the lowest dewpoint of the day... i think on most super hot days you'll see that combo. partly since we generally need downsloping to get super hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 12z GFS likes the heat Friday-Mon... 24c 850s each day for us or at least nearby... long range, FWIW, doesn't show us really doing much better as heights don't really go below 588DM... which suggests to me a lot of 90-95 degree days 12z GFS, if taken verbatim, would suggest a lot more 90 degree days... in fact probably every day would be 90+... starting early next week...and we may be making another run at that 67 90 degree days record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 yeah but it was about the lowest dewpoint of the day... i think on most super hot days you'll see that combo. partly since we generally need downsloping to get super hot. Yeah, this is a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Probably won't happen, but whats the record for most 100 degree days in a row? I think DCA would be the best one to use Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Yeah, this is a big deal. Partly why, IMO, we haven't seen much or any change in our highest readings.. More moisture in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Why the GFS at long range should always be taken with a grain, er, boulder of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 12Z At DCA THU 97 FRI 103 SAT 103 SUN 103 MON 100 I think subtract 5 from all of those, and you'd end up pretty close. Ian, zwyts, Ellinwood, MN Transplant ........ contest time in the next few days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Why the GFS at long range should always be taken with a grain, er, boulder of salt. 139 degree HX... thats not hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 I think subtract 5 from all of those, and you'd end up pretty close. Ian, zwyts, Ellinwood, MN Transplant ........ contest time in the next few days? Maybe subtract 3 or 4. This is a badass ridge in the heart of heat season. Definitely contest-worthy. Maybe hold off until Tues/Wed in order to capture the Fri-Mon period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Maybe subtract 3 or 4. This is a badass ridge in the heart of heat season. Definitely contest-worthy. Maybe hold off until Tues/Wed in order to capture the Fri-Mon period. yeah, i'd be surprised if we dont get at least one 100+ out of it if it ends up how modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 yeah, i'd be surprised if we dont get at least one 100+ out of it if it ends up how modeled. But that's what I'm saying. Haven't these things tended to back off as we get closer to the events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 But that's what I'm saying. Haven't these things tended to back off as we get closer to the events? Actually, I believe some of the models underperformed on the heat by a few degrees a few times this summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 But that's what I'm saying. Haven't these things tended to back off as we get closer to the events? i think we've seen a few times where we didnt end up getting past the periphery of the ridge so clouds/etc hampered full effect. i dont believe we've seen the models forecast 594+ heights right overhead this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Four consecutive days of 110+ or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Four consecutive days of 110+ or bust. Agreed, we either break the all time record high or they can keep it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Maybe subtract 3 or 4. This is a badass ridge in the heart of heat season. Definitely contest-worthy. Maybe hold off until Tues/Wed in order to capture the Fri-Mon period. yeah, i'd be [somewhat] surprised if we dont get at least one 100+ out of it if it ends up how modeled. These. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Euro doesn't quite move the heat over this way as much as 00z, but still very hot. Upper plains with just relentless heat through D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Ensembles look pretty hot though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Ensembles look pretty hot though 12z euro ensemble mean is cooler than the operational... http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Temperature%20at%20850hPa!North%20America!192!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2011071512!!/ http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Temperature%20at%20850hPa!North%20America!216!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2011071512!!/ http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Temperature%20at%20850hPa!North%20America!240!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2011071512!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Does it matter we're at 95 everyday rather than 100 everyday? They feel basically the same to me, discusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Does it matter we're at 95 everyday rather than 100 everyday? They feel basically the same to me, discusting. totally cross Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 i buy american. gfs mex is 98 fri. we're gonna roast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 i buy american. gfs mex is 98 fri. we're gonna roast. with 850s near 24/25...98 may be on the low end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 The pool will be heavily used at the conference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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