Hugo Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 You'd never go to sleep if we had the worst conditions possible? A lot of people would cry themselves to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 1-2inches tonight from wilkesboro to hickory maybe a slush to the immediate east flurries west. nothing to see here folks.:snowman::snowman::snowman::snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 1-2inches tonight from wilkesboro to hickory maybe a slush to the immediate east flurries west. nothing to see here folks.:snowman::snowman::snowman::snowman: I don't know what drug you are taking but you should think about stopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 I don't know what drug you are taking but you should think about stopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Well its 88 days till fall. AKA the time we start thinking about snow and you people in western NC usually get your first snow in October/November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted June 30, 2011 Author Share Posted June 30, 2011 Well its 88 days till fall. AKA the time we start thinking about snow and you people in western NC usually get your first snow in October/November. First snows are always the best! Usually don't really amount to much though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 I am forecasting a slightly cooler than normal winter for the Tennessee Valley and Carolinas. Jury is out on the Deep South and Gulf Coast due to the ENSO question. Believe it will be weak either way or neutral, which will have a huge impact on the Deep South. However I'm looking at other signals for the mid-South. The NAO/AO will likely average negative this winter. Solar activity continues to lag. The -PDO tends to open the door to cool regimes. The Atlantic is still warm so I'm not looking for any crazy 1970s winters, and I don't think it will be nearly as cold as last Dec/Jan. My vote is slighly cool mid-South. This thread is mainly about 11/12 Winter, but I did notice some comments on long-term trends. Each ocean goes in about a 50-60 year cycle; therefore, North American climate does so as well. The Pac is about a decade to 15 years ahead of the Atlantic on similar wavelengths. Pac has cooled like it started to in the 1950s. The Atlantic will cool too in 10-15 years. Winters in the 60s/70s were cold, with both ocean cool, and we may be looking at that again in a decade or 15 years. Then like in the 1980s the Pac will warm up again first after these cool decades. The 80s were still a wild decade. Sunspots can enhance or diminish effects. Good thing for snow and cold lovers that a slow or low sunspot cycle may coincide with the ocean cycle. It may be a chicken or the egg deal, but I'm seeing 60s/70s/80s winters more consistently starting in about 10-15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 I am forecasting a slightly cooler than normal winter for the Tennessee Valley and Carolinas. Jury is out on the Deep South and Gulf Coast due to the ENSO question. Believe it will be weak either way or neutral, which will have a huge impact on the Deep South. However I'm looking at other signals for the mid-South. The NAO/AO will likely average negative this winter. Solar activity continues to lag. The -PDO tends to open the door to cool regimes. The Atlantic is still warm so I'm not looking for any crazy 1970s winters, and I don't think it will be nearly as cold as last Dec/Jan. My vote is slighly cool mid-South. This thread is mainly about 11/12 Winter, but I did notice some comments on long-term trends. Each ocean goes in about a 50-60 year cycle; therefore, North American climate does so as well. The Pac is about a decade to 15 years ahead of the Atlantic on similar wavelengths. Pac has cooled like it started to in the 1950s. The Atlantic will cool too in 10-15 years. Winters in the 60s/70s were cold, with both ocean cool, and we may be looking at that again in a decade or 15 years. Then like in the 1980s the Pac will warm up again first after these cool decades. The 80s were still a wild decade. Sunspots can enhance or diminish effects. Good thing for snow and cold lovers that a slow or low sunspot cycle may coincide with the ocean cycle. It may be a chicken or the egg deal, but I'm seeing 60s/70s/80s winters more consistently starting in about 10-15 years. I'm gonna move farther north if this actually happens. NY sounds like a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 I am forecasting a slightly cooler than normal winter for the Tennessee Valley and Carolinas. Jury is out on the Deep South and Gulf Coast due to the ENSO question. Believe it will be weak either way or neutral, which will have a huge impact on the Deep South. However I'm looking at other signals for the mid-South. The NAO/AO will likely average negative this winter. Solar activity continues to lag. The -PDO tends to open the door to cool regimes. The Atlantic is still warm so I'm not looking for any crazy 1970s winters, and I don't think it will be nearly as cold as last Dec/Jan. My vote is slighly cool mid-South. This thread is mainly about 11/12 Winter, but I did notice some comments on long-term trends. Each ocean goes in about a 50-60 year cycle; therefore, North American climate does so as well. The Pac is about a decade to 15 years ahead of the Atlantic on similar wavelengths. Pac has cooled like it started to in the 1950s. The Atlantic will cool too in 10-15 years. Winters in the 60s/70s were cold, with both ocean cool, and we may be looking at that again in a decade or 15 years. Then like in the 1980s the Pac will warm up again first after these cool decades. The 80s were still a wild decade. Sunspots can enhance or diminish effects. Good thing for snow and cold lovers that a slow or low sunspot cycle may coincide with the ocean cycle. It may be a chicken or the egg deal, but I'm seeing 60s/70s/80s winters more consistently starting in about 10-15 years. I give the bolded two thumbs up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted July 1, 2011 Author Share Posted July 1, 2011 I give the bolded two thumbs up It's really not that hard of a forecast. We know we aren't going to have a strong or moderate Nina or Nino, so we know its going to be weak either way, or stay neutral as it is now. The only major factor at the moment is the NAO. That's going to untimely determine our winter (cold, snow, ect.) like it did last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 It's really not that hard of a forecast. We know we aren't going to have a strong or moderate Nina or Nino, so we know its going to be weak either way, or stay neutral as it is now. The only major factor at the moment is the NAO. That's going to untimely determine our winter (cold, snow, ect.) like it did last winter. I just like hearing equal chances and not above normal temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 Credit goes to BTownWxWatcher on another forum for finding this. Here is the composite temperature anomalies after 2 consecutive -NAO below -0.5 (which we've had). This includes all ENSO from Strong La Nina to strong El Nino. You can see most of the nation is below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted July 6, 2011 Share Posted July 6, 2011 With the AO being so negative right now it made me wonder, what do the following winters look like as far as temp departure. That would be an interesting map as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Second Year La Nina...Doesn't look like that will happen but if it does these are the analogs... 1893-94...snowy winter... 1916-17...snowy winter... 1921-22...snowy winter in in places... 1938-39...snowy winter... 1950-51...not snowy... 1955-56...ended snowy... 1971-72...snowy second half... 1974-75...mild with not much snow... 1999-00...overall mild with a cold snowy end of January... Neutral after a one year nina...most likely scenario... 1985-86...not snowy... 1989-90...not snowy... 1996-97...not snowy... 2008-09...Decent winter.. From Uncle W in another thread. If you go by the Charlotte numbers like I do, You'd best hope for an El Nino this winter. La Nada has been outright terrible for the most part and 2nd year Nina's havent exactly been stellar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Second Year La Nina...Doesn't look like that will happen but if it does these are the analogs... 1893-94...snowy winter... 1916-17...snowy winter... 1921-22...snowy winter in in places... 1938-39...snowy winter... 1950-51...not snowy... 1955-56...ended snowy... 1971-72...snowy second half... 1974-75...mild with not much snow... 1999-00...overall mild with a cold snowy end of January... Neutral after a one year nina...most likely scenario... 1985-86...not snowy... 1989-90...not snowy... 1996-97...not snowy... 2008-09...Decent winter.. From Uncle W in another thread. If you go by the Charlotte numbers like I do, You'd best hope for an El Nino this winter. La Nada has been outright terrible for the most part and 2nd year Nina's havent exactly been stellar. Most of those descriptions of the winters seem very subjective. Also new info is showing we might be headed into a weak La Nina this winter also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Most of those descriptions of the winters seem very subjective. Also new info is showing we might be headed into a weak La Nina this winter also. Bottom line for those la Nina years is the snowfall was below normal in almost all of those winters. I also should mention that he's from NYC but I looked up every winter for this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 For GSP, the 2 ENSO states that stand out as having a tendency to produce less than normal snow are Neutral and Strong La Nina. Seems like the AO, NAO, and PNA are huge factors though (as seen this past winter). I do like having those upper lows track out of SoCal into Texas that are characteristic of Ninos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 For GSP, the 2 ENSO states that stand out as having a tendency to produce less than normal snow are Neutral and Strong La Nina. Seems like the AO, NAO, and PNA are huge factors though (as seen this past winter). I do like having those upper lows track out of SoCal into Texas that are characteristic of Ninos. Yeah, I'm thinking those stats about la nada earlier in the thread might've been skewered by one or two good seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 7, 2011 Share Posted July 7, 2011 Second Year La Nina...Doesn't look like that will happen but if it does these are the analogs... 1893-94...snowy winter... 1916-17...snowy winter... 1921-22...snowy winter in in places... 1938-39...snowy winter... 1950-51...not snowy... 1955-56...ended snowy... 1971-72...snowy second half... 1974-75...mild with not much snow... 1999-00...overall mild with a cold snowy end of January... Neutral after a one year nina...most likely scenario... 1985-86...not snowy... 1989-90...not snowy... 1996-97...not snowy... 2008-09...Decent winter.. From Uncle W in another thread. If you go by the Charlotte numbers like I do, You'd best hope for an El Nino this winter. La Nada has been outright terrible for the most part and 2nd year Nina's havent exactly been stellar. For Atlanta, a snowy winter often requires only one, say, 3"+ snowstorm since the longterm average is only ~2". Keeping that in mind: Atlanta: Second Year La Nina... 1893-94...snowy winter...6.0" (all with one big Feb. storm) 1916-17...very little or no S/IP 1921-22...very little S/IP 1938-39...T of S 1950-51...T of S 1955-56...T of S 1971-72...1.0" of S/IP 1974-75...T of S 1999-00...T of S and two major ZR's Neutral after a one year nina... 1985-86...0.4" S/IP 1989-90...1.3" S/IP (historic S SAV/CHS) 1996-97...1.3" S/IP 2008-09....snowy winter..4.2" (all on 3/1) For ATL, I'm calling 1-2" of S/IP near normal. So, out of these 13, I'm calling it two snowy winters, three near normal, and eight little snow. Overall, these 13 average somewhat below the longterm average of ~2.0" although the four neutral average near the longterm avg. Of course, ATL has just experienced three snowy winters in a row...that is hard to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted July 9, 2011 Share Posted July 9, 2011 Second Year La Nina...Doesn't look like that will happen but if it does these are the analogs... 1893-94...snowy winter... 1916-17...snowy winter... 1921-22...snowy winter in in places... 1938-39...snowy winter... 1950-51...not snowy... 1955-56...ended snowy... 1971-72...snowy second half... 1974-75...mild with not much snow... 1999-00...overall mild with a cold snowy end of January... Neutral after a one year nina...most likely scenario... 1985-86...not snowy... 1989-90...not snowy... 1996-97...not snowy... 2008-09...Decent winter.. From Uncle W in another thread. If you go by the Charlotte numbers like I do, You'd best hope for an El Nino this winter. La Nada has been outright terrible for the most part and 2nd year Nina's havent exactly been stellar. Reading the ENSO thread on the main board, it is looking more and more likely that we will have a weak La Nina by winter - at the very least. Now, the question I have is how long will the atmosphere take to react to it once it happens? Even where I live now, it's like the atmosphere is trying to be hot/dry like a Nina, but every once in a while it rains and cools off like a Nino. After looking at Foothills' precip map in the July thread my county in TN(Sullivan) is one of the driest counties in E TN along w/ Greene. So, my opinion may just be a local blip. I do think that after this winter, things begin to get cooler. Nina's are a bear in E TN w/ heat. I'll be glad to see this pattern go. Anyway, 'bout time for you to get back up your UNC pic. Wish the UT "powers that be" would have let us play this upcoming year. Instead, we'll probably get upset by Bearcats from Cincinnati. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Second Year La Nina...Doesn't look like that will happen but if it does these are the analogs... 1893-94...snowy winter... 1916-17...snowy winter... 1921-22...snowy winter in in places... 1938-39...snowy winter... 1950-51...not snowy... 1955-56...ended snowy... 1971-72...snowy second half... 1974-75...mild with not much snow... 1999-00...overall mild with a cold snowy end of January... Neutral after a one year nina...most likely scenario... 1985-86...not snowy... 1989-90...not snowy... 1996-97...not snowy... 2008-09...Decent winter.. From Uncle W in another thread. If you go by the Charlotte numbers like I do, You'd best hope for an El Nino this winter. La Nada has been outright terrible for the most part and 2nd year Nina's havent exactly been stellar. The 1989-90 winter had the rare christmas snow and freeze event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Some people consider VA the South, so I'll also post this here. These are maps from Snowstorm at AccuWx forums. Since a weak La Nina is becoming more likely (which actually isnt that bad) these are maps with weak La Nina years. The first map is the weak La Nina years with a -QBO. The 2nd is weak La Nina years with a -NAO. -Weak La Nina's with a -QBO: -Weak La Nina with -NAO: Given the higher chances of a -NAO due to our entering a decadal cycle of -NAO winters and tthe fact that the QBO has started its descent into negative territory, I would say we stand a fair chance at a cold winter once again. This is what you get when using Snowstorms preferred analogues for this Winter and I tend to agree: Just gotta have hope. Now I said I tend to agree with Snowstorms thoughts. I agree because of the following factors: -The higher chances of a -NAO -The QBO going negative -Solar Activity rapidly diminishing -Cooling AMO -Cooling global temps -Weak La Nina -Volcanic Activity - -PDO - Stronger STJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Can we just fast forward 6 months to the Foothills play-by-play of the 1AM Euro...good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Can we just fast forward 6 months to the Foothills play-by-play of the 1AM Euro...good stuff I can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Some people consider VA the South, so I'll also post this here. These are maps from Snowstorm at AccuWx forums. Since a weak La Nina is becoming more likely (which actually isnt that bad) these are maps with weak La Nina years. The first map is the weak La Nina years with a -QBO. The 2nd is weak La Nina years with a -NAO. -Weak La Nina's with a -QBO: -Weak La Nina with -NAO: Given the higher chances of a -NAO due to our entering a decadal cycle of -NAO winters and tthe fact that the QBO has started its descent into negative territory, I would say we stand a fair chance at a cold winter once again. This is what you get when using Snowstorms preferred analogues for this Winter and I tend to agree: Just gotta have hope. Now I said I tend to agree with Snowstorms thoughts. I agree because of the following factors: -The higher chances of a -NAO -The QBO going negative -Solar Activity rapidly diminishing -Cooling AMO -Cooling global temps -Weak La Nina -Volcanic Activity - -PDO - Stronger STJ We know so little about the NAO that it's impossible to predict if we're in a downward cycle. Whoever put that together on AccuWx also failed to look up those conditions while being in a 2nd year Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx4life Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Can we just fast forward 6 months to the Foothills play-by-play of the 1AM Euro...good stuff ahhh...the weeks of no sleep and the pure anticipation of every model run. My refresh key has had a long enough break! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 We know so little about the NAO that it's impossible to predict if we're in a downward cycle. Whoever put that together on AccuWx also failed to look up those conditions while being in a 2nd year Nina. I'm just giving you my opinion, no need to be crude. I'm also providing the research he did because it is interesting, all of those years are multi-year Nina scenarios from what I understand in his post. And considering things were stacked against us last year with a near Strong La Nina, +QBO, +IO, and -PNA....we did fairly well. Taking into account, the current situation is slightly better than that, should offer at least some hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 I'm just giving you my opinion, no need to be crude. I'm also providing the research he did because it is interesting, all of those years are multi-year Nina scenarios from what I understand in his post. And considering things were stacked against us last year with a near Strong La Nina, +QBO, +IO, and -PNA....we did fairly well. Taking into account, the current situation is slightly better than that, should offer at least some hope. Not trying to get crude but last year was a 1 in 100 type shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 For the past 2 winters, the -AO has been a huge driver of the cold as well. I can't remember back to back winters where it dropped so far into negative territory. Kinda makes me wonder if we're getting into a period where the wintertime AO tilts more negative than positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Not trying to get crude but last year was a 1 in 100 type shot. Exactly. That's my point. Since things dont look so impossible this go around, we have a better shot this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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