NEGa Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 JB has always been on the extreme side of things but I tend to agree with him on his cooling earth observations and predictions. Maybe it's just because I remember the 70's winters and wish I could re-live them again. Never-the-less, based on the last couple of winters. you can't deny that we seem to be entering a period dominated by a -NAO. Bring on the snow and cold....... The last 2 winters were much more reminiscent of the 70s and early 80s. I would gladly take some more like that Beats most of the first 8 years of this decade that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 http://iri.columbia....nfo/update.html Sounds like neutral is the most popular forecast to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 http://iri.columbia....nfo/update.html Sounds like neutral is the most popular forecast to me... Yea, that is what I have seen the most. If a Nina can give us what it did imagine neutral conditions, with a prevailing -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Yea, that is what I have seen the most. If a Nina can give us what it did imagine neutral conditions, with a prevailing -NAO We can dream can't we? Still a lot to find out in the next 186 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I dont remember la nada being particuarly good to us. I'm hoping for a winter where my region of the state doesnt get screwed over and over and over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 It seems like NC is due for a ice storm. Last few years have been mainly heavy snow events in the northern foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 I dont remember la nada being particuarly good to us. I'm hoping for a winter where my region of the state doesnt get screwed over and over and over again. Quite the contrary. I know for Charlotte that La Nada actually brings more snow on average than Nino or Nina. Neutral - 5.6" Nino - 5.4" Nina - 4.4" I remember this because it was in Brad Panovich's winter forecast last season. The Graphic that talks about the averages starts around 26 seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 The last 2 winters were much more reminiscent of the 70s and early 80s. I would gladly take some more like that Beats most of the first 8 years of this decade that's for sure ^^^^^^ This :wub: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Alabama has been major snow (by Bama's standards) for the last 4 years. Hoping for an El Nino year, that does well for Alabama snows (especially south alabama). Just look at the 09/10 year (2-12-10). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I would hope for a nino, but after last winters Nina, ENSO status just dont mean as much to me as it used to I cant wait though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Quite the contrary. I know for Charlotte that La Nada actually brings more snow on average than Nino or Nina. Neutral - 5.6" Nino - 5.4" Nina - 4.4" I remember this because it was in Brad Panovich's winter forecast last season. The Graphic that talks about the averages starts around 26 seconds. Well I don't think his ice storm prediction came true. I do agree with him we are overdue especially just north of Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 I dont remember la nada being particuarly good to us. I'm hoping for a winter where my region of the state doesnt get screwed over and over and over again. I think you'll have to move east/south/north/west for that to change. It doesn't matter how good the pattern is, the storms always screw up over the I-85 corridor of NC. You are better off being in Rocky Mount to see a solid snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 Well I don't think his ice storm prediction came true. I do agree with him we are overdue especially just north of Charlotte. I just posted the video, because he points out the average amounts of snow per ENSO cycles. But your right. It's almost like some people around here want us to have another crippling ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 We've already had one La Nada winter this decade that was absolutely terrible. You've also got to remember that one huge snowstorm can really skew the stats around here. The best you can hope for around here is a weak el-nino. You especially need a strongly -NAO with either a La Nada or La Nina and I dont know that I can see that happening for 2 straight years. Besides, We've never had 4 straight fairly above average seasons in my lifetime. Even the amazing run we had around here from 78-83 had one terrible winter in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 We've already had one La Nada winter this decade that was absolutely terrible. You've also got to remember that one huge snowstorm can really skew the stats around here. The best you can hope for around here is a weak el-nino. You especially need a strongly -NAO with either a La Nada or La Nina and I dont know that I can see that happening for 2 straight years. Besides, We've never had 4 straight fairly above average seasons in my lifetime. Even the amazing run we had around here from 78-83 had one terrible winter in it. I think the pendulum is going to swing one way or the other this winter, and we will end up either as a week Nina, or a week Nino. I've been reading in the NE forum about this exact same subject, and if I remember right, someone in there said that there are some signs that we could see a prolonged time with a -NAO this winter, but don't quote me on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 0.1 for Southern Pines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I don't know what ENSO will be next Winter, but until this past Winter, the Strong Nina was the death knell around here, probably many in the Southeast. Almost none going back going back to the late 50's brought much snow. The new fly in the ointment (and the reason this winter was so different) is the state of NAO cycles. No doubt we're heading back into a long term negative state of it, of course there will be spikes within seasons and even a year or two, but overall most think we're going into long term negative territory which is of course the first ingredient needed for the Southeast. It is about the best possible way to deliver cold enough+precip we can get assuming one of the ENSO states isn't raging enough. Even so, I believe the NAO status trumps them all, but thats my opinion. If its' negative more often then not, then the Winters of the 1950s to 1970's are coming back, and began 2 years ago. I wanted to hedge that way in last years's outlook but decided not to since I wasn't sure if the NAO state was a fluke, but now think its not. But again, any one year can buck the trend, but overall I still like the odds of increased snow and ice + Cold, in the South over the next 20 years, generally speaking. If we can ever get a unique pattern like Feb/Mar 1960 with its unique dual blocking plus a couple other factors, we'd repeat history basically with unusual frequent snow. It "almost" happened this last Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 0.1 for Southern Pines Now you'll have to mow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I don't know what ENSO will be next Winter, but until this past Winter, the Strong Nina was the death knell around here, probably many in the Southeast. Almost none going back going back to the late 50's brought much snow. The new fly in the ointment (and the reason this winter was so different) is the state of NAO cycles. No doubt we're heading back into a long term negative state of it, of course there will be spikes within seasons and even a year or two, but overall most think we're going into long term negative territory which is of course the first ingredient needed for the Southeast. It is about the best possible way to deliver cold enough+precip we can get assuming one of the ENSO states isn't raging enough. Even so, I believe the NAO status trumps them all, but thats my opinion. If its' negative more often then not, then the Winters of the 1950s to 1970's are coming back, and began 2 years ago. I wanted to hedge that way in last years's outlook but decided not to since I wasn't sure if the NAO state was a fluke, but now think its not. But again, any one year can buck the trend, but overall I still like the odds of increased snow and ice + Cold, in the South over the next 20 years, generally speaking. If we can ever get a unique pattern like Feb/Mar 1960 with its unique dual blocking plus a couple other factors, we'd repeat history basically with unusual frequent snow. It "almost" happened this last Winter. Would love a repeat of mid February 1969 , really wish I could have seen it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Would love a repeat of mid February 1969 , really wish I could have seen it. My dad says it was about 2 feet in Shelby, but the most I could find was about 16" in the records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 My dad says it was about 2 feet in Shelby, but the most I could find was about 16" in the records. This is the only thing I could find on the storm, but I think some of the data is inccorect because it has Shelby at 1.5" but surrounding areas from 14-18" Do you know details on the setup, or anything else on the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 This is the only thing I could find on the storm, but I think some of the data is inccorect because it has Shelby at 1.5" but surrounding areas from 14-18" Do you know details on the setup, or anything else on the storm? I've got a few records and maps of it in my archives. I'll get them up here soon. That data in your link is incomplete or error for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 I've got a few records and maps of it in my archives. I'll get them up here soon. That data in your link is incomplete or error for sure. Yea that is what I figured. Will keep my eye open for them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coldlover Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Can anyone tell me how this cold and snow would effect SC with these upcoming winters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Summer solstice is now behind us, and the days start getting shorter tomorrow! Whooo! Bring on winter! :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Summer solstice is now behind us, and the days start getting shorter tomorrow! Whooo! Bring on winter! :snowman: :snowman: 184 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Can anyone tell me how this cold and snow would effect SC with these upcoming winters? What cold and snow? Your question really made no sense to me. South Carolina will never in your lifetime have lots of snow and cold. All you can hope for is a freak snowstorm or extended cold spell. But even then the cold won't be that cold as usual in the SE. I know it's not easy but move to the north, you sure seem dead set on getting loads of cold and snow in SC. It is not going to happen in your lifetime. The next ice age perhaps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coldlover Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I didnt mean super cold or bigger amounts of snow for Sc,i just meant would Sc get at least a little more snow and some more cold with this coming little ice age?Wow this sure isnt a nice board.I think ill just quit posting as everytime i do someone has something smartass to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I didnt mean super cold or bigger amounts of snow for Sc,i just meant would Sc get at least a little more snow and some more cold with this coming little ice age?Wow this sure isnt a nice board.I think ill just quit posting as everytime i do someone has something smartass to say. What little ice age? This is a thread to talk about the coming winter, not some extreme theory that may occur in 2097. You bring the smartass comments upon yourself, so quit trying to blame everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coldlover Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I apologize as i got the threads mixed up.Still not a very nice board as all i did was ask some stuff about peoples thoughts on the winters coming up in Sc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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