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Retrograde Snowstorm by 12/5?


CT Rain

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You read through the thread and note the pessimists, optimists, optometrists, and neutralists. How one can be upset over this Euro run considering the calendar is beyond me. Yes it shows a modified cutter d10. But it also shows an easterly block a HP to the north, and a more classically placed 50/50. Get those 3 things, this storm won't be a cutter. In fact, even the Euro acknowledges the CAD if you look at llvl temps. And plenty cold after that. And we're not yet to mid December.

The deterministic run itself is what it is and it sucks....no one is saying that particular soloution will verify given the pattern,

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Certainly it's not abnormal to wait until maybe Mid December to have a significant snowfall. It is more typical than atypical ..heck sometimes we wait till Xmas or later. So I understand Jerry's point...

That said...I still find it unacceptable and therefore obviously I don't live far enough north yet. I won't be satisfied until I live in a place where it snows consistently from Thanksgiving through March. If I am fortunate enough to still be a snow freak at Jerry's age I'll be typing this from maybe the White Mountains or Fort Kent, ME etc. :)

Not a shock.

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Not at all, looks like its going to be cool and dry for most of new england besides favored upslope locations and Maine until the mid month threat, lets just hope that storm does not cut.

The first threat is going to fail....its not negative....its non-delusional.

That's ok......we still have a potentially great stretch on the horizon.

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Certainly it's not abnormal to wait until maybe Mid December to have a significant snowfall. It is more typical than atypical ..heck sometimes we wait till Xmas or later. So I understand Jerry's point...

That said...I still find it unacceptable and therefore obviously I don't live far enough north yet. I won't be satisfied until I live in a place where it snows consistently from Thanksgiving through March. If I am fortunate enough to still be a snow freak at Jerry's age I'll be typing this from maybe the White Mountains or Fort Kent, ME etc. :)

Absolutely.....but that run sucked.

Is it the end of the world, no.

Absolutely...but that run sucked.

Is it the end of the world, no.

I understand climo, but having a retrograde monster miss, followed by ample cold preceeding a cutter blows, regardless of the fact its early Decemeber.

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They'll be some flurries and snow showers around this weekend, but it's tough to say where. My guess would be either western mass, or areas near and north of the pike..but could be anywhere. Sometimes there is a surprise band of steadier -sn. The gfs and nam were dry this go around...even for RH, but the euro seemed to peg most of sne with the chance...even down through CT. We'll see.

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Certainly it's not abnormal to wait until maybe Mid December to have a significant snowfall. It is more typical than atypical ..heck sometimes we wait till Xmas or later. So I understand Jerry's point...

That said...I still find it unacceptable and therefore obviously I don't live far enough north yet. I won't be satisfied until I live in a place where it snows consistently from Thanksgiving through March. If I am fortunate enough to still be a snow freak at Jerry's age I'll be typing this from maybe the White Mountains or Fort Kent, ME etc. :)

I've known you for almost 15 years Rick. You will be.

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The first threat is going to fail....its not negative....its non-delusional.

That's ok......we still have a potentially great stretch on the horizon.

I agree with you 100%, its kind of a kick in the rear that its blocking keeping us from seeing snow, brings back nightmares from last winter, however it is still very early in the game. I think mid month can deliver in a big way, but keeping it real, one has to keep the option of a cutter on the table.

It certainly will be a fantastic two week stretch in maine and the greens, but that does not comfort those outside the before mentioned areas.

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I agree with you 100%, its kind of a kick in the rear that its blocking keeping us from seeing snow, brings back nightmares from last winter, however it is still very early in the game. I think mid month can deliver in a big way, but keeping it real, one has to keep the option of a cutter on the table.

It certainly will be a fantastic two week stretch in maine and the greens, but that does not comfort those outside the before mentioned areas.

I think we end up near normal for SF in December (cold month)...with lots of wasted potential, but those are just my thoughts.....could we clean up....sure.

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Hopefully so! Snow never gets old ...a few inches, a few feet. It is all good. :)

I'm 80% a winter wx person though...I enjoy other areas of wx, but not sure if I would have made a great Met because my interest is fairly winter-centric. I can't get all excited over my three strong T storms per year like Wiz does. LOL

Later tonight I'll post a pic that I found of myself immersed in a huge snow pile at age 4 in January of 1970. It was just after the all time record snowfall month of Dec. 1969. I can't say that I really recall that month, but obviously I enjoyed it.

I've known you for almost 15 years Rick. You will be.

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LOL , my hope is we get that, ULLs are notorious for the unexpected, it would be sweet to see a nice snow cover to assist radiation for low temps, also would be great theater to watch KeV spank you and put you in the corner with a dunce cap on, Jayhawk give me some Ryan Duncecap material LOL

Happened many times last winter/summer..will happen again this weekend./early week.

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Here is an example of a huge bust because of a stretched out ULL...this setup was more ideal and produced heavy amounts, but it illustrates the danger of bust potential

I think the forecast was for like 2-5" but then we snowed forever after the main low exited and parts of central MA ended up with a foot of snow....pretty big bust.

At least the forecast was for snow. You had that going for you in any case.

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You can probably make that statement in most months of most winters in our area.

Really......finishing below normal during a month hasn't been an easy accomplishment this year.

Calling for a cold December also really tips my hand RE the entirety of the winter if you have researched strong Nina Decembers and subsequent seasons....strong correlation there.

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so here we are on dec 2.....wasn't there a big storm progged about 10 days ago to hit us dec 2/3 oh well.....now are we getting amped up about a 12/12-13 storm. we are like the ghost busters.

looks like the next model of interest is the 0z nam......and we will pretty much only look at it if it is favorable....otherwise we have the luxury of throwing it out and then waiting on the more reliable 0z euro.

and if nothing else ......should this big trough serve up a goose egg now that the colder air is here......we will have to endure 10 more days of model watching and hoping.

then i believe long range models will show some warming tendency's for a time......and rev kev will go nuts....logan probably as well (ray almost) .... ski mrg will be praying to the stars nitely. so long as it's cold enough to make snow at wa wa i will be okay....(not great)

in the meantime ...waiting on the models

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From the PM guidance everything still looks good to me for a few inches

You seem to be very sure of this event, what guidance shows sne getting a few or 3-6 inches of snow, I am looking every which way to even bs myself into believing it, but that has not worked the last couple days, and tonights guidance has gone the opposite way.

What are you seeing, that most everyone else is not? I want to believe.:snowman:

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I'm not amped up about 12/13. LOL I live inside the 5 day forecast mostly and get my greatest fun searching the models for small nuances that might get me some snow (any snow) in the short term. So I'm mainly looking at these runs now to see if there is an opening for an inch or two here and there..... Maybe on 12/8 I get amped about 12/13.

so here we are on dec 2.....wasn't there a big storm progged about 10 days ago to hit us dec 2/3 oh well.....now are we getting amped up about a 12/12-13 storm. we are like the ghost busters.

looks like the next model of interest is the 0z nam......and we will pretty much only look at it if it is favorable....otherwise we have the luxury of throwing it out and then waiting on the more reliable 0z euro.

and if nothing else ......should this big trough serve up a goose egg now that the colder air is here......we will have to endure 10 more days of model watching and hoping.

then i believe long range models will show some warming tendency's for a time......and rev will go nuts.

in the meantime ...waiting on the models

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I also found a pic of my father's family clearing snow on 70th St. in Brooklyn following the Dec. 1946 storm.. Will have to scan that one... Or was it 47? I know he was home on leave from Fort Bragg and experienced the storm.

Definitely 1947. On 12/1/46, my mother always told me it was very warm early but got cold that night. I ushered in winter with my new born ranting.

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Yep 1947 makes sense because he had done his stint in Northern Italy (post War) and they had him down in Fort Bragg until his discharge in April 1948. He was in Brooklyn for the holidays. He said that the snowcover lasted all the way into NC going down on the train. They were building the house in Saugerties while he was in the army...soon after they bid farewell to Brooklyn.

Definitely 1947. On 12/1/46, my mother always told me it was very warm early but got cold that night. I ushered in winter with my new born ranting.

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I'm not amped up about 12/13. LOL I live inside the 5 day forecast mostly and get my greatest fun searching the models for small nuances that might get me some snow (any snow) in the short term. So I'm mainly looking at these runs now to see if there is an opening for an inch or two here and there..... Maybe on 12/8 I get amped about 12/13.

Rick, the way things have been going of late, there's no reason to look beyond day 4-5. Like Chris said, the skating will be good.

Boy though, it should would be extra cold if the upcoming pattern was setting up over a blanket of snow.

29.9/21 off a high of 36.2.

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