June In Southern New England...............

[ski MRG]

60 in fog and mist.Absolutely perfect working weather. The mist keeps you cool even working full tilt. Best summer evah.

[Ginx snewx]

kevin is noticeably absent today...wonder if he passed out in all the heat and humidity

Nah he is ragging it because we busted his balls all week, noticeably pissed.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Nah he is ragging it because we busted his balls all week, noticeably pissed.

yeah maybe. i don't know. if *anyone* is fair game it's kevin...

[blizzard24]

I say that watch later today or tonight for sever weather for ct and mass . I say will get into two heat waves in july for sne area .

i seen it before when no one thought we would get sever weather and sne area got hit that late day .

[nzucker]

I say that watch later today or tonight for sever weather for ct and mass . I say will get into two heat waves in july for sne area .

What happened to the multiple blizzards in late March?

[Ginx snewx]

What happened to the multiple blizzards in late March?

Same thing that happened to our warm wet winter

Blizz is king!

[Tropopause_Fold]

The overcast is thinning a bit today down here

Still cloudy but not so dark and cold

[CoastalWx]

Looks like BDL barely gets into the low 70s today.

Or barely gets to 70.

[ORH_wxman]

Or barely gets to 70.

Still got work to do there to even make that. Looks like high so far there is 65F.

Meanwhile hi of 57F here so far. If it were tomorrow, we'd be challenging the record low max, but today is a very tough one to match at 53F.

[Typhoon Tip]

Still got work to do there to even make that. Looks like high so far there is 65F.

Meanwhile hi of 57F here so far. If it were tomorrow, we'd be challenging the record low max, but today is a very tough one to match at 53F.

Prelim limo might be interesting come tomorrow for Worcester. They are +.3 to date, which is pretty much at direct odds with sensible memory - seemingly been a butt bang month. But, it is what it is... and we shall see what factoring in a -15 day will do to the numbers.

[ORH_wxman]

Prelim limo might be interesting come tomorrow for Worcester. They are +.3 to date, which is pretty much at direct odds with sensible memory - seemingly been a butt bang month. But, it is what it is... and we shall see what factoring in a -15 day will do to the numbers.

We had that very warm stretch from about the 7th to the 11th. A minimal heat wave for some...and while it seems a long time ago, the very first day of the month was a warm one...but a lot of the rest of the month has been pretty cruddy. Even on days where the temp departure might not stray too far from normal, its seemed to be a lot of cloudiness with intermittent showers so the sensible weather puts a bad image in our mind. Then of course we have days like today which aren't remotely decent.

We did have a few of those 73F sunny and dry low-dewpoint days mixed in too.Those were nice.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Or barely gets to 70.

Always respect the CAD. Lol

[nzucker]

Always respect the CAD. Lol

80 with breaks of sun at BDL....raging south winds and damaging hail.

Back to reality, it's 67/65 here with misery mist and E winds, this at the warmer downtown station. Only got to 72F yesterday, looks like that may be a stretch today.

[weatherMA]

80 with breaks of sun at BDL....raging south winds and damaging hail.

Back to reality, it's 67/65 here with misery mist and E winds, this at the warmer downtown station. Only got to 72F yesterday, looks like that may be a stretch today.

Lucky

It's a summery 59/59 here. But its humid, so its fine.

[Typhoon Tip]

We had that very warm stretch from about the 7th to the 11th. A minimal heat wave for some...and while it seems a long time ago, the very first day of the month was a warm one...but a lot of the rest of the month has been pretty cruddy. Even on days where the temp departure might not stray too far from normal, its seemed to be a lot of cloudiness with intermittent showers so the sensible weather puts a bad image in our mind. Then of course we have days like today which aren't remotely decent.

We did have a few of those 73F sunny and dry low-dewpoint days mixed in too.Those were nice.

Boston's actually below average... I suspect that the lower elevations in eastern zones that may be the case. The Marine intrusion this year has its own engine - really, just worse than a biblical locus plague we have been inundated by the N atlantic.

i don't think one could say anything negatively enough to really describe today - it's like the Universe is sinning. God should be punished - and that is not enough of a bad description

[ORH_wxman]

BOS should be around -1F on the month after today. They are currently -0.5F but today looks like it will put up a monster negative departure...maybe -12 or -13.

[nzucker]

Lucky

It's a summery 59/59 here. But its humid, so its fine.

Yeah but we're not in school so I don't care what the weather is. I can sit and watch Wimbledon in cool, cloudy conditions just as I can during a heat wave.

God bless SUMMER VACATION.

67.1/65

.11" rainfall today

NE@2mph

[Typhoon Tip]

BOS should be around -1F on the month after today. They are currently -0.5F but today looks like it will put up a monster negative departure...maybe -12 or -13.

You just know that this winter willl suck beyond the dreams of a two dollar hooker, too... We'll have 0.00 snow for January and a 53, 59, 68, 74, 71, 58, 65, 63, 68, 79, 54 stretch of Earth shattering warm anomaly from the 15th to the 26th, ending with a rain nor-easter at 34.3.

[ORH_wxman]

You just know that this winter willl suck beyond the dreams of a two dollar hooker, too... We'll have 0.00 snow for January and a 53, 59, 68, 74, 71, 58, 65, 63, 68, 79, 54 stretch of Earth shattering warm anomaly from the 15th to the 26th, ending with a rain nor-easter at 34.3.

Agreed.

[nzucker]

You just know that this winter willl suck beyond the dreams of a two dollar hooker, too... We'll have 0.00 snow for January and a 53, 59, 68, 74, 71, 58, 65, 63, 68, 79, 54 stretch of Earth shattering warm anomaly from the 15th to the 26th, ending with a rain nor-easter at 34.3.

Where do you get this idea from?

It's generally true that hot, scorching summers lead to cold, snowy winters......thinking about 2002, 1995, 1993, 1977, 1966 etc...

However, 2009 and 1960 are exceptions, cool summers that were followed by decent winters.

[ORH_wxman]

Where do you get this idea from?

It's generally true that hot, scorching summers lead to cold, snowy winters......thinking about 2002, 1995, 1993, 1977, 1966 etc...

However, 2009 and 1960 are exceptions, cool summers that were followed by decent winters.

Well it certainly has not been a hot scorching summer. Not up here anyway.

2004 was also a cold summer that had a huge winter up this way.

[Typhoon Tip]

Where do you get this idea from?

It's generally true that hot, scorching summers lead to cold, snowy winters......thinking about 2002, 1995, 1993, 1977, 1966 etc...

However, 2009 and 1960 are exceptions, cool summers that were followed by decent winters.

I'm just being ironical - as Will just so ...creepily pointed out. haha.

Seriously I don't have an opinion for next winter; my forte is middle and extended range anomaly potentials - well short of seasonal biases.

Although, I suspect the tertiary superposition of the solar cycle still being underway (despite the over-publicized recent up-tick in spot activity) will continue to correlate to -AO. In simple terms, colder would be preferred. But, there are others with talent in this area of forecasting and I am not one of them.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Agreed.

Lol

[nzucker]

Well it certainly has not been a hot scorching summer. Not up here anyway.

2004 was also a cold summer that had a huge winter up this way.

No, it hasn't been scorching here either...we're more on the plus side of normal, but not like 2010. It's basically been 3 hot days that have driven the anomaly this June, with the rest of the month being cool/rainy/cloudy.

2004 was a great example...how could I forget so soon? That was also a big winter here, 50" of snow with a withering arctic spell in January. We got about 14" from the 1/05 storm. My area had about the same amount of snow in 02-03, 03-04, 04-05...with the first winter being slightly snowier.

I'm just being ironical - as Will just so ...creepily pointed out. haha.

Seriously I don't have an opinion for next winter; my forte is middle and extended range anomaly potentials - well short of seasonal biases.

Although, I suspect the tertiary superposition of the solar cycle still being underway (despite the over-publicized recent up-tick in spot activity) will continue to correlate to -AO. In simple terms, colder would be preferred. But, there are others with talent in this area of forecasting and I am not one of them.

Yes, I think a blocky pattern will be preferred. Also, GISS surface temps and AMSU SSTs are pretty low, so looks like the globe is slightly cooler this season.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm just being ironical - as Will just so ...creepily pointed out. haha.

Seriously I don't have an opinion for next winter; my forte is middle and extended range anomaly potentials - well short of seasonal biases.

Although, I suspect the tertiary superposition of the solar cycle still being underway (despite the over-publicized recent up-tick in spot activity) will continue to correlate to -AO. In simple terms, colder would be preferred. But, there are others with talent in this area of forecasting and I am not one of them.

Its certainly seemed that way over the past 3 winters. Really ever since the AO/NAO went negative in the summer of 2008,. it has not been able to stay away from that baseline for long. This year's February to mid-April +NAO surge was really the longest period we have seen it positive in the past 36 months...though even that stretch had it flip back negative the final 10 days of March to give us that cold snap and snow threats. Since early May though, we've seemed to fall back into a -NAO cycle...not strongly so until these recent 10-12 days, but its that recurring pattern we've seen so much of over the past 3 years.

Remember when we had a few years there when it seemed like pulling teeth just to get a -NAO to stick for more than a week during the winter? Recently its been the opposite. I'm not sure what this winter will do in terms of NAO/AO, but you'd have to lean negative with a weakish type Nina looking more likely and the continued low solar/geomagnetic flux. But even in big decadal NAO regimes, we've seen positive years so obviously nothing is guaranteed.

[ORH_wxman]

No, it hasn't been scorching here either...we're more on the plus side of normal, but not like 2010. It's basically been 3 hot days that have driven the anomaly this June, with the rest of the month being cool/rainy/cloudy.

2004 was a great example...how could I forget so soon? That was also a big winter here, 50" of snow with a withering arctic spell in January. We got about 14" from the 1/05 storm. My area had about the same amount of snow in 02-03, 03-04, 04-05...with the first winter being slightly snowier.

Yes, I think a blocky pattern will be preferred. Also, GISS surface temps and AMSU SSTs are pretty low, so looks like the globe is slightly cooler this season.

Summer of 2000 was another one you forgot. Very chilly summer with an active cold/snowy winter that followed.

[nzucker]

Summer of 2000 was another one you forgot. Very chilly summer with an active cold/snowy winter that followed.

Yeah, not as huge of a winter down here with about 45", but still notable for New England. Dec 2000 was definitely a memorable month for us, however, especially after four straight clunker winters. I think I'd kill myself if I had to deal with a sequence like 96-97, 97-98, 98-99, 99-00 again...don't think we broke 25" in any of those years. We missed out a little bit in 00-01 with places farther north doing better in both the February and March storms, but it was still a solid winter with nice snow cover and the memorably frigid December.

63-64 is another example, I believe, of a good winter after a cooler summer.

[free_man]

55.9

[Typhoon Tip]

Its certainly seemed that way over the past 3 winters. Really ever since the AO/NAO went negative in the summer of 2008,. it has not been able to stay away from that baseline for long. This year's February to mid-April +NAO surge was really the longest period we have seen it positive in the past 36 months...though even that stretch had it flip back negative the final 10 days of March to give us that cold snap and snow threats. Since early May though, we've seemed to fall back into a -NAO cycle...not strongly so until these recent 10-12 days, but its that recurring pattern we've seen so much of over the past 3 years.

Remember when we had a few years there when it seemed like pulling teeth just to get a -NAO to stick for more than a week during the winter? Recently its been the opposite. I'm not sure what this winter will do in terms of NAO/AO, but you'd have to lean negative with a weakish type Nina looking more likely and the continued low solar/geomagnetic flux. But even in big decadal NAO regimes, we've seen positive years so obviously nothing is guaranteed.

Yep, no argument here... We had piss-poor winter production from about 1985 to '91 or so, then it go neggy looking in the NAO through '96 - with the exception of that 1994-'95 hell's a-hole winter. Then it went very plusty for 10 years - with of course as you stated occasioinal returns to nader notwithstanding; the majority of the time it was difficult for the NAO to remain low though.

That all said, I've seen negative NAO's in the summer not have a meaningful impact on the flow here... With the wave lengths being what they are in JJA, cannot expect the teleconnector in January to apply in July. It may be coincidental that there is a spatial mega-high over Greenland that is managing to nose 1,500 miles or more for the sole intent of f k ng up our weather - haha. Seriously though, that feature would appear anchored by -NAO, certainly - but it seem interesting to me that other years a negative NAO fails to produce that kind of lower tropospheric response. Obviously, idiosyncratic nuances in the exact details of flow orientation play a pivotal role in making sure Kevin's forecasts are always wrong ....

[HoarfrostHubb]

High temp today of 54.7F ... lol

Vacation!!! WOOT!