NJwinter23 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Its usually more common for the shear to be too strong with lacking instability...I think generally too much CAPE and lesser shear is not as much an inhibitor. Very true. The pulsing nature of these cells though is suggesting to me that these storms are notseperating downdrfat from updraft very well right now. The very high BRN numbers over Central NJ suggest maybe so: Was going to post that map, >100 I'd think is way too much BRN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I wonder what the major networks/evening news will do at 5pm with this tornado watch. Choppers flying over a hazy sky, saying it looks ominous, while Lonnie Quinn gives advice on what to do if a tornado strikes, and the naive anchors bound to summon Joplin into their conscience while a radar map of dissipating storms are shown... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anemone Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 P3 just got a severe thunderstorm warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The NW Jersey cell definitely looks like a hailer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NJC027-037-041-012045- /O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0081.110601T2005Z-110601T2045Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 405 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY... SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NEWTON... EXTREME EAST CENTRAL WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY... * UNTIL 445 PM EDT * AT 403 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ANDOVER...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF NEWTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... HOPATCONG...MOUNT ARLINGTON AND LAKE MOHAWK AROUND 410 PM EDT... WHARTON AROUND 415 PM EDT... LAKE TELEMARK AND ROCKAWAY AROUND 420 PM EDT... GREEN POND AND BOONTON AROUND 425 PM EDT... KINNELON AROUND 430 PM EDT... RIVERDALE AROUND 435 PM EDT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER... PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Upton's giving up: VERY NON IMPRESSIVE RADAR PRESENTATION LOCALLY GIVEN ALL THE INSTABILITY. TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM...BUT EXPECT THAT IT CAN BE CANCELLED EARLY FROM WEST TO EAST. APPEARS THE LACK OF SHEAR AND DYNAMICS HAS PREVENTED THE ANTICIPATED MORE EXTENSIVE DEVELOPMENT. ANVIL OVER N JERSEY AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS OF 19Z WILL ALSO HELP CAP NEW CONVECTION. POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO SCATTERED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The NW Jersey cell definitely looks like a hailer id be dissapointed if we didnt atleast get a thunderstorm period its taking foreverrr to get going and im starting to think that time may be running out for nyc metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Upton's giving up: VERY NON IMPRESSIVE RADAR PRESENTATION LOCALLY GIVEN ALL THE INSTABILITY. TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM...BUT EXPECT THAT IT CAN BE CANCELLED EARLY FROM WEST TO EAST. APPEARS THE LACK OF SHEAR AND DYNAMICS HAS PREVENTED THE ANTICIPATED MORE EXTENSIVE DEVELOPMENT. ANVIL OVER N JERSEY AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS OF 19Z WILL ALSO HELP CAP NEW CONVECTION. POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO SCATTERED. As I stated earlier, nice to seem them taking initiative over SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Upton's giving up: VERY NON IMPRESSIVE RADAR PRESENTATION LOCALLY GIVEN ALL THE INSTABILITY. TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM...BUT EXPECT THAT IT CAN BE CANCELLED EARLY FROM WEST TO EAST. APPEARS THE LACK OF SHEAR AND DYNAMICS HAS PREVENTED THE ANTICIPATED MORE EXTENSIVE DEVELOPMENT. ANVIL OVER N JERSEY AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS OF 19Z WILL ALSO HELP CAP NEW CONVECTION. POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO SCATTERED. Lol....that in a nut shell is the story of severe weather in our area.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Upton's giving up: VERY NON IMPRESSIVE RADAR PRESENTATION LOCALLY GIVEN ALL THE INSTABILITY. TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM...BUT EXPECT THAT IT CAN BE CANCELLED EARLY FROM WEST TO EAST. APPEARS THE LACK OF SHEAR AND DYNAMICS HAS PREVENTED THE ANTICIPATED MORE EXTENSIVE DEVELOPMENT. ANVIL OVER N JERSEY AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AS OF 19Z WILL ALSO HELP CAP NEW CONVECTION. POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO SCATTERED. I don't know if we're done yet....front is still back in central PA, plenty of time. Sun just came back out, 86.3/76 and rising. Incredibly oppressive outside, feels like we couldn't help but have a severe t-storm right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anemone Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 new cell just west of staten island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 clearly you know more than they do, fire them all! Upton now agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Upton now agrees Once again, Upton is not SPC. Upton is about to swallow there own words as the warned cell over NJ crosses over into there CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Upton now agrees Pretty impressive radar in springfield,Ma and just west of orh....somthing you dont see everyday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Upton now agrees Congrats, youre batting somewhere near the mendoza line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Pretty impressive radar in springfield,Ma and just west of orh....somthing you dont see everyday very, the cell at one point had 3 areas of rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Someone should tell Lee Goldberg because an entire county is shaded for a tornado warning doesn't mean the whole county is under a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Little cell bout to go over me... might be all for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1053 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ME...NH...SRN VT...MA...CT...RI...SE NY...NY CITY CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 411...413... VALID 012017Z - 012145Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 411...413...CONTINUES. A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 411 AND 413 THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING FROM NRN MAINE SWD ACROSS THE WRN PART OF MAINE ALONG AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY. THIS AREA IS LOCATED TO THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET IN AN AREA WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THE WSR-88D VWP AT PORTLAND MAINE HAS A 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 350 TO 400 M2/S2. THIS IS CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES. AS THE SUPERCELLS MOVE ACROSS THE STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN CNTRL MAINE...TORNADOES...WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...SEVERAL VERY INTENSE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MA AND NRN CT. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF A MAX OF STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MESOANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. THIS ALONG WITH 45 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT WELL-DEVELOPED SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY IF SEVERAL OF THE STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO A LINE. SPC continues to be 5 times more bullish than Upton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Impressive warned cell slated for Mercer County. Looks to be on track for my area in Monmouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Ok now I'm home.. The hail was about .25-.50in. in diameter. Wasn't exactly hailing like "crazy", but it was coming down at a good pace. It abruptly ended.. I wonder if this is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Airmass is just incredibly juiced now, 86/78 here, rarely see dewpoints so high. We need a severe storm from this horrid airmass. I'm hoping something pops from those cells in NJ, although the highest CAPE is in W NJ with values up to 6000J/kg. CAPE starts to decrease as you approach the maritime-influenced environment of NYC. NWS has a low of 48F here tomorrow night. Going to feel great as we only have one room with AC in the entire house, can't wait to shut it off and open the windows to a refreshing, crisp breeze. But first, we need storms. Is it possible we see a linear squall line with the cold front later tonight as well as the discrete supercells that have been popping up in Massachusetts and NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 New storms are popping NE of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 SPC continues to be 5 times more bullish than Upton. In fairness that MCD was more for areas just north of the KOKX CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 In fairness that MCD was more for areas just north of the KOKX CWA. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1053 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ME...NH...SRN VT...MA...CT...RI...SE NY...NY CITY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 That is a monster supercell near Springfield Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 That is a monster supercell near Springfield Mass tornado was on the ground in springfield http://www.wwlp.com/subindex/video/player_page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 That is a monster supercell near Springfield Mass TWC just said it's similar to the Joplin supercell. They're already showing damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Upton is right it is all over. Everything keeps weakening. I am so pissed that something has always go wrong with this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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