Amped Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Don't be dissappointed if your house wasn't hit by an EF5. You'll get it next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 One other point I want to bring up is that around between now through August we got the instability that is great but anything else could screwed up when the trough is at the wrong place. When the fall comes we get strong storm system that goes to our north, alot of times we do get some sort severe event that is different. We get the dynamics but the instabilty becomes weaker and then it turns out we get this low topped convention along cold front and could be called Narrow Cold Frontal Rainband (NCFR). They most if not all the time produce little to no lightning we get screwed with that and on the other they bring Severe Thunderstorm Warning despite no lightning with it because they bring down strong to damaging winds and occasional they could produce a small tornado which really they are gustnadoes. Fall of 2003 had alot of those type of events but I am so crazy about that because mainly they produce much in the of thunder and lightning but I find them interesting though. They alot times bring a pattern change and signal a transition to winter. What are you guys though on those type of events with low topped convention? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Don't be dissappointed if your house wasn't hit by an EF5. You'll get it next time. That would never happen in the NYC area so I am not worry about it. The setup has to be right even EF-0 tornado to happen but hopefully I could live without the tornadoes in my area and if I was to see one I would like to see in the Midwest plain in the far distance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 i just wish the trof wasn't so far N into Canada. If we had it a bit further south and sinking that way, like it is @ 72 hr on the 00z runs tonight, the forcing would be so much better. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 That would never happen in the NYC area so I am not worry about it. The setup has to be right even EF-0 tornado to happen but hopefully I could live without the tornadoes in my area and if I was to see one I would like to see in the Midwest plain in the far distance. Maybe it just takes out Leman Brothers, Goldman Sachs and AIG, then ropes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 That would never happen in the NYC area so I am not worry about it. The setup has to be right even EF-0 tornado to happen but hopefully I could live without the tornadoes in my area and if I was to see one I would like to see in the Midwest plain in the far distance. I had an F-2 within 5 min of my house back in 1998 on Labor Day-- I don't even want that! Honestly, Mass is the severe wx capital of the NE so I'm not surprised we missed out. We rarely ever get severe weather where I live-- and when we do, it's usually at the end of summer and in the early fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 I think the closest tornadoes I've had were in Lynbrook in 1998 and in 2002(?). The 1998 one was rated EF2 I believe and tore a number of roofs off. The site for that one is about 15 minutes from me. I think actually once a few years back there was a waterspout sighted not far from Long Beach but it lifted before it got here.Very few in this area really regard tornadoes as a threat, but the NYC area has taken quite a few hits from them over the last decade or so. In the right environment it can get quite active around here. I was five minutes from that tornado in 1998-- Sept is climo much more favorable for us than any other month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 I had an F-2 within 5 min of my house back in 1998 on Labor Day-- I don't even want that! Honestly, Mass is the severe wx capital of the NE so I'm not surprised we missed out. We rarely ever get severe weather where I live-- and when we do, it's usually at the end of summer and in the early fall. In the fall is when alot of times is when we get those low topped convention that I was talking that has no lightning most of time. Think of Septemeber of 2003 of few tornadoes that happen in NJ and no thunder and lightning occured with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 earthlight do you think the predicted stormy june will deliver for the northeast areas, especially the areas that were let down today? I highly doubt anyone here is letdown that an ef2/ef3 didnt destroy everything they have.... seriously people, realize what you are asking for when you get bummed out or pissed off that the severe setups busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Maybe it just takes out Leman Brothers, Goldman Sachs and AIG, then ropes out. That nasty tornado back in 2008 took out the 'h" and the rest of the company in one fell swoop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Yesterday was one of those days where the morning action telegraphed where to look for the biggest afternoon and evening storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Yesterday was one of those days where the morning action telegraphed where to look for the biggest afternoon and evening storms. Writing was on the wall before the morning. Everything was setting up to be to the north due to the surface low position and the influence and positioning of the pre-frontal trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Writing was on the wall before the morning. Everything was setting up to be to the north due to the surface low position and the influence and positioning of the pre-frontal trough. That's right. The main surface low passed by well to our north up in Canada. The surface low in the 6/2/2000 severe event passed closer to our area. Newark also set a record high of 93 on 6/2/2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 We seem to have no shortage of instability this year. Numerous days with high CAPE values and no significant storms yet. I think our time will come, we just need to be patient. Eventually everything will fall into place. I don't remember ever seeing CAPE values that high before over these parts. It's a shame to waste but we have had plenty of good events with 1500-3000 SBCAPE and 30-50 kts of shear. Tornados can happen anywhere at anytime. They are extrememly rare for a few reasons, and strong tornados (EF2 and stronger) are even rarer, but they have occured here in the past and will occur here again. Records simply haven't been kept that long and since the rating system is based on damage, there is no comparison between the structures that exist today and the ones that did in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 I had an F-2 within 5 min of my house back in 1998 on Labor Day-- I don't even want that! Honestly, Mass is the severe wx capital of the NE so I'm not surprised we missed out. We rarely ever get severe weather where I live-- and when we do, it's usually at the end of summer and in the early fall. I remember reading about a tornado that moved south crossing around the area of JFK and becoming a waterspout in Jamaica Bay. Do you have any info on this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 We seem to have no shortage of instability this year. Numerous days with high CAPE values and no significant storms yet. I think our time will come, we just need to be patient. Eventually everything will fall into place. I don't remember ever seeing CAPE values that high before over these parts. It's a shame to waste but we have had plenty of good events with 1500-3000 SBCAPE and 30-50 kts of shear. Tornados can happen anywhere at anytime. They are extrememly rare for a few reasons, and strong tornados (EF2 and stronger) are even rarer, but they have occured here in the past and will occur here again. Records simply haven't been kept that long and since the rating system is based on damage, there is no comparison between the structures that exist today and the ones that did in the past. Like I could live without the tornadoes but strong to severe thunderstorms will be fun to have in area with hail and gusty winds with lots thunder and lightning. I am glad to get at least a thunderstorm which I didn't get yesterday because the timing and position of the trough was at the wrong spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Like I could live without the tornadoes but strong to severe thunderstorms will be fun to have in area with hail and gusty winds with lots thunder and lightning. I am glad to get at least a thunderstorm which I didn't get yesterday because the timing and position of the trough was at the wrong spot. most of us here love severe weather, but there is a big difference between 60mph gusts taking down a few branches and a tornado moving through the area. The tri-state area is do densely populated, imagine how much damage a 1/2 mile wide EF5 tornado would cause? It would probably be the most deadly and costly tornado in history. Very few people in this area take warnings seriously, storm cellars don't exist, tornado sirens don't exist and for the most part, houses are very close together. Would probably make the Joplin tornado look like a kiddie ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 speaking of severe, the winds today are cranking, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Yesterday was one of those days where the morning action telegraphed where to look for the biggest afternoon and evening storms. The top image was the storms from the warm front that passed through. That was a great indication just how far north the surface low was. If that line had passed through here in the A.M., we would have been ground zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 That's right. The main surface low passed by well to our north up in Canada. The surface low in the 6/2/2000 severe event passed closer to our area. Newark also set a record high of 93 on 6/2/2000. Yeah, the low yesterday was always forecasted by the models, to be going very far to the north and take the best shear and forcing with it. However, we could of still done better here, with timing/placement of the pre-frontal trough and more shear and forcing arriving in the area later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Yeah, the low yesterday was always forecasted by the models, to be going very far to the north and take the best shear and forcing with it. However, we could of still done better here, with timing/placement of the pre-frontal trough and more shear and forcing arriving in the area later in the day. Makes perfect sense why the good majority of the area got screwed yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Tornados can stay in Oklahoma, if I want to see one I'll just fly out there. No need to bring them to IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 I remember reading about a tornado that moved south crossing around the area of JFK and becoming a waterspout in Jamaica Bay. Do you have any info on this one? What year was it? I'll look it up. Another tornado I remember is from 1991 when Hurricane Bob came up the coast.... it was in St. Albans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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