Thunderdude Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 The best mid level lapse rates/cool air aloft were exiting east this afternoon and they were the reason for convective initiation, along with the prefrontal trough. They were just lucky enough to see these dynamics favoring growth. It was still quite randomized and was aided by the Monmouth activity in NJ. This bust hurts just as bad as last year's June 6th bust. This time of year always sees a great combination of instability and shear for us and it hurts when they go to waste. However, in 1998, they wasn't the case. This year certainly panned out north of us. The pattern in the future still looks good for additional threats. I remember June 6th let down also but I wasn't sober thankfully that day so I didn't attention too much. Hopefully the next chance will bring and at least I wasn't the only area that was screwed. Upton does mention a warm front on Saturday or Sunday so maybe a there is a thunderstorm chance. Maybe we will these warm front setups so then we could get our best severe weather events here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Potential Epic failure for a significant severe bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 you should make a short drive down 18..would be cool seeing 1" hail Yeah hurts even more for me as I had a good hailer go to the north and to the south...caught in the middle with less than 0.10" of rain. Did get to see some awesome cloud formations and CTG lightning though. Monmouth County turned out to be the hot spot in NJ today and I still missed out. Hopefully we'll get something better in the coming weeks...pattern looks favorable for ring of fire convection. In the end, the sfc low track / height fall center was too far north for our area. About 150-200 miles further south and we would've been in the prime spot for good shear / dynamics. Wind shear and mid/upper level dynamics seems to rule the roost more often than not for us. We can have sky high instability with impressive thermodynamics...but it won't do much if the lifting mechanism and associated shear is not strong enough to sustain the T-storm updrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Yeah hurts even more for me as I had a good hailer go to the north and to the south...caught in the middle with less than 0.10" of rain. Did get to see some awesome cloud formations and CTG lightning though. Monmouth County turned out to be the hot spot in NJ today and I still missed out. Hopefully we'll get something better in the coming weeks...pattern looks favorable for ring of fire convection. In the end, the sfc low track / height fall center was too far north for our area. About 150-200 miles further south and we would've been in the prime spot for good shear / dynamics. Wind shear and mid/upper level dynamics seems to rule the roost more often than not for us. We can have sky high instability with impressive thermodynamics...but it won't do much if the lifting mechanism and associated shear is not strong enough to sustain the T-storm updrafts. When do you think when be the next shot for thunderstorms? When really sucks there was showers and possible thunderstorms developed over Nassau and Suffolk County border fell apart quick but fired up so quick to my northeast and became severe over near the Hamptons. I don't think Eastern LI getting severe weather because of the marine layer is strong over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 The best mid level lapse rates/cool air aloft were exiting east this afternoon and they were the reason for convective initiation, along with the prefrontal trough. They were just lucky enough to see these dynamics favoring growth. It was still quite randomized and was aided by the Monmouth activity in NJ. This bust hurts just as bad as last year's June 6th bust. This time of year always sees a great combination of instability and shear for us and it hurts when they go to waste. However, in 1998, that wasn't the case. This year certainly panned out north of us. The pattern in the future still looks good for additional threats. I still maintain that severe wx is about the toughest aspect of forecasting..so many variables to examine, and its often difficult to determine whether the fly in the ointment (s) (there always is one) is influential enough to cause a non-event. The EML was in place but unfortunately only a few widely scattered discrete cells pushed through the CAP, much like yesterday in IL/IN/MO while MI stole all the fun due to more forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 I still maintain that severe wx is about the toughest aspect of forecasting..so many variables to examine, and its often difficult to determine whether the fly in the ointment (s) (there always is one) is influential enough to cause a non-event. The EML was in place but unfortunately only a few widely scattered discrete cells pushed through the CAP, much like yesterday in IL/IN/MO while MI stole all the fun due to more forcing. With that being said, I think I'd rather take my chances with a weaker CAP/less EML and stronger shear, at least in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 When do you think when be the next shot for thunderstorms? When really sucks there was showers and possible thunderstorms developed over Nassau and Suffolk County border fell apart quick but fired up so quick to my northeast and became severe over near the Hamptons. I don't think Eastern LI getting severe weather because of the marine layer is strong over there. Looks like a boring stretch of weather coming up, although beautiful, not much to talk about. When the heat ridge begins ballooning northeastward again, likely later next week, we'll see convective opportunities via short waves embedded in the NWLY flow aloft diving into the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 With that being said, I think I'd rather take my chances with a weaker CAP/less EML and stronger shear, at least in the Northeast. Even that marine layer for the coast I still manage to get thunderstorms a good part of the time even though not severe one most of time. Instead of pulse storms with bad timing with wastefully instability. I have any thunderstorm or either have nothing, rain showers, literally today just a few rain drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 NAM handled this pretty well. Never showed anything really impacting our area. Always had the real precip well north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Looks like a boring stretch of weather coming up, although beautiful, not much to talk about. When the heat ridge begins ballooning northeastward again, likely later next week, we'll see convective opportunities via short waves embedded in the NWLY flow aloft diving into the Northeast. I am not looking forward to this boring stretch of weather. Well I could take a few nice days but since today good majority of the area got screwed today I wouldn't want to wait another two weeks for the next thunderstorm chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 NAM handled this pretty well. Never showed anything really impacting our area. Always had the real precip well north and east. I have to say the NAM was on target and Upton was on target as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 2, 2011 Author Share Posted June 2, 2011 tons of lightning to my south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Not even a drop of rain. How pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 2, 2011 Author Share Posted June 2, 2011 Incredible lightning display!! The clouds are lit by the moon (or something) and you can see the lightning at the top of the structure ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 With that being said, I think I'd rather take my chances with a weaker CAP/less EML and stronger shear, at least in the Northeast. I would take this setup again but with a better positioned trough. I actually noticed the opposite around here... It is our high instability days that usually over-perform, but this is entirely anecdotal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 I would take this setup again but with a better positioned trough. I actually noticed the opposite around here... It is our high instability days that usually over-perform, but this is entirely anecdotal. The Trough was way too far north if it was 100-150 miles to the south it would made a huge difference. We would got into the fun today instead getting screwed having either nothing or just a rain shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 tons of lightning to my south Yeah pretty good light show here. First cell just scraped me with a couple minutes of pea sized hail, now the second one looks to hit me dead on (hopefully). Tons of CTC lightning going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 I am not looking forward to this boring stretch of weather. Well I could take a few nice days but since today good majority of the area got screwed today I wouldn't want to wait another two weeks for the next thunderstorm chance. Considering how bad the NYC area has had it with tornadoes and damage over the last couple of years, I'm happy we missed it this time (although my immediate area will likely never see any kind of tornadic event due to our marine layer). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 2, 2011 Author Share Posted June 2, 2011 Yeah pretty good light show here. First cell just scraped me with a couple minutes of pea sized hail, now the second one looks to hit me dead on (hopefully). Tons of CTC lightning going on. I got some sick pictures with my iPhone...will post them soon. So awesome how you can see the updraft at night so clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Monmouth county managed 3 separate severe cells..plus the one that went through morris county. With upton going with 30-40% pops don't think it was really supposed to be a widespread event regardless of how perfect the parameters may have been. Unlike snowstorms I never get that excited for severe events because so often they end up being a letdown. The Trough was way too far north if it was 100-150 miles to the south it would made a huge difference. We would got into the fun today instead getting screwed having either nothing or just a rain shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Considering how bad the NYC area has had it with tornadoes and damage over the last couple of years, I'm happy we missed it this time (although my immediate area will likely never see any kind of tornadic event due to our marine layer). I could live without the tornadoes but strong thunderstorms are fun though. Even LI has their shared of tornadoes also but hopefully when severe weather events happen for NYC area it sticks to hail and strong winds with little to no damage. If I ever want to see a tornado I rather to see it in the distance in the midwest without being in harms way. Anyway I hopes the tornadoes out in the Midwest lessen and no more lives get lost. It sucks people die in those things. i pray for the families who lose their love ones from those tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Monmouth county managed 3 separate severe cells..plus the one that went through morris county. With upton going with 30-40% pops don't think it was really supposed to be a widespread event regardless of how perfect the parameters may have been. Unlike snowstorms I never get that excited for severe events because so often they end up being a letdown. My area was the screwzone but not far away from my east got into the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 I could live without the tornadoes but strong thunderstorms are fun though. Even LI has their shared of tornadoes also but hopefully when severe weather events happen for NYC area it sticks to hail and strong winds with little to no damage. If I ever want to see a tornado I rather to see it in the distance in the midwest without being in harms way. Anyway I hopes the tornadoes out in the Midwest lessen and no more lives get lost. It sucks people die in those things. i pray for the families who lose their love ones from those tornadoes. I think the closest tornadoes I've had were in Lynbrook in 1998 and in 2002(?). The 1998 one was rated EF2 I believe and tore a number of roofs off. The site for that one is about 15 minutes from me. I think actually once a few years back there was a waterspout sighted not far from Long Beach but it lifted before it got here.Very few in this area really regard tornadoes as a threat, but the NYC area has taken quite a few hits from them over the last decade or so. In the right environment it can get quite active around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 The closest tornado for me was in 2007 when a tornado hit Islip Terrance and that was a EF-1. Some minor damage occur and that was classic warm front setup situation where I hope it happens this season where we get some severe thunderstorms with hopefully without tornadoes though. Last summer when I was in Port Jeff I though I saw winds going in two different direction from a severe thunderstorm. Winds were at least gusting to 60 mph. There was no confirmed tornado from that storm and I couldn't report because It is long story why but I wasn't sure if this was a mircburst/straight line winds or possibly small chance it could been a very small tornado. Every year there was a severe weather bust situation and at least my area isn't the only area that got screwed today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 look at those big t-storms off montauk in an area of little cape fully infused in the marine layer, shear and forcing > SBCAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 I got some sick pictures with my iPhone...will post them soon. So awesome how you can see the updraft at night so clearly. earthlight do you think the predicted stormy june will deliver for the northeast areas, especially the areas that were let down today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 look at those big t-storms off montauk in an area of little cape fully infused in the marine layer, shear and forcing > SBCAPE I notice that and in marine layer isn't always bad thing after all but many other things screw up thunderstorm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 look at those big t-storms off montauk in an area of little cape fully infused in the marine layer, shear and forcing > SBCAPE Yeah those storms really blew up. I'd love to see the light show from the coast around there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 tons of lightning to my south I could see little lightning to south from that same cell that went over Mommouth County and it is about 20 miles south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Yeah...seeing the pulsing storms go up as early as they did really irked me, especially given the fact that the 0-6km bulk shear was essentially trailing well behind them. The prefrontal trough was one of the main concerns with this setup..and it did come back to get us in the end. Maybe not the way people had thought it would...I think the general assumption was that it would blow through and turn winds westerly with no convection. Also, the mid level temps warmed after around 17-18z which was definitely inhibiting better updraft development. The timing was just barely off..and it's a bummer we didn't get to see some better structures down this way given the highly unstable environment we had to work with. Thanks for the summary man, makes sense. Looking back I realize that the signs were probably there on some model runs. I think I recall a run of the SREF yesterday blowing the steepest mid-level lapse rates (probabilities) eastward by early afternoon while the best shear was not expected to enter until later more in line with the cold front I guess. It's a shame (or is it?) that this wasn't realized today, but those isolated pulsers were pretty freaking intense. I just saw pictures of hailstones from Marlboro on the news that are clearly at least golf ball sized. Very impressive, and I still can't believe that hail core missed me by 2 miles while i was outside watching for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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