NorEaster27 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Its clear the best forcing and shear is to our NE, SPC should really drop the Tor watch for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 0-6km shear is now increasing to 30-40kts over NJ and east: Coast is more favorable than inland with todays set-up. Especially NJ/NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Its clear the best forcing and shear is to our NE, SPC should really drop the Tor watch for NYC clearly you know more than they do, fire them all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Effective bulk shear is increasing along with BRN shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 This is almost as bad as a winter storm discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The storms in western MA are very impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The storms in western MA are very impressive look out Worcester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Is it possible that there is so much CAPE that the minimal 30-35kt shear is not enough to maintain these pulsers right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Even 1500-2000 J/k instabilty is quite impressive by me. Forget NYC is very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Is it possible that there is so much CAPE that the minimal 30-35kt shear is not enough to maintain these pulsers right now? Its usually more common for the shear to be too strong with lacking instability...I think generally too much CAPE and lesser shear is not as much an inhibitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Is it possible that there is so much CAPE that the minimal 30-35kt shear is not enough to maintain these pulsers right now? seems like too much of a good thing and not enough forcing / shear to tap it. Storms can't sustainted themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The storm that was over Warren County is holding its own quite nicely. Looks like its going to hit the West Milford area and then possibly Orange County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The storm that was over Warren County is holding its own quite nicely. Looks like its going to hit the West Milford area and then possibly Orange County. its a garden variety summer t-storm right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Is it possible that there is so much CAPE that the minimal 30-35kt shear is not enough to maintain these pulsers right now? The very high BRN numbers over Central NJ suggest maybe so: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Tiny cell has develop over State Island and lets hope that develop into something but too strong shear is killer too. I hate pulsey type storms because they also weaken too fast and screw the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 A few more storms might develop along the front itself, otherwise this looks to be a day late and a dollar short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Big cell in back of initial cell near Morris county NJ. Coming right for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 They're beginning to pop North and NE of philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 They're beginning to pop North and NE of philly. Yup. Things are looking a little better as everything moves east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I think we all will be lucky if we see more then a 15 min shower......this type of set-up can happen all the time out west, and not produce. In our case we dont get to see this type of set-up all the time, but it still does not have to produce....second year in a row we had a tor watch and has yet to produce a severe storm in our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tizod Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I don't see it happening....for NYC at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I think we all will be luck if we see more then a 15 min shower......this type of set-up can happen all the time out west, and not produce. In our case we dont get to see this type of set-up all the time, but it still does not have to produce....second year in a row we had a tor watch and has yet to produce a severe storm in our region. Yeah but last year had what? 3 confirmed tornados in Queens and Brooklyn? Maybe 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anemone Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 P3 is starting to show some good rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Yeah but last year had what? 3 confirmed tornados in Queens and Brooklyn? Maybe 4? I believe those where severe t-storm watches before those events.....last year we had a tor watch, that failed to produce a shower in our area.......thats what im getting at. It happens, it was a great set-up just did not work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Cell to the NW of MMU is looking the nicest anything has looked all day in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I believe those where severe t-storm watches before those events.....last year we had a tor watch, that failed to produce a shower in our area.......thats what im getting at. It happens, it was a great set-up just did not work out they issued a small tornado watch just for that one storm last year, and quickly dropped it once it passed offshore. Started showing rotation over Orange County and had tornado warnings the whole way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 NJ looks to be firing up a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Can someone tell me what's going on with the cell west of Morris county? Any rotation or hail core? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Thats a nice cell north of Dover in N NJ.... South of BK trying to get its act together... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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