earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 5000-6000 j/kg of surface based cape over Central and Eastern PA. Capped but still pretty cool to see. The EML doing it's work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 We get supercells up here? Really?? Yes sir--more often than you would think. The reason I stated them more strongly today is because todays parameters suggest the potential for more of a classic discrete-type supercell structure capable of producing tornadoes/damaging winds and large hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 If the conditions look so favorable for tstorms, why has not watch been issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I am worried winds switch over to the west here as these storms outrun the best forcing and we end up with isolated storms unable the break the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 If the conditions look so favorable for tstorms, why has not watch been issued There is still a cap in place with the EML. The storms won't make it here for another few hours when the better forcing arrives and updrafts can be maintained under 30+kts of 0-6km bulk shear. It's at this time that the RUC shows the backing winds and favorable parameters for supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 I am worried winds switch over to the west here as these storms outrun the best forcing and we end up with isolated storms unable the break the cap. Definitely a possibility. I posted yesterday about how I was a bit concerned that the mid level front would outrun the event a bit. But in these types of events, it's almost like a time bomb. One updraft breaking the EML cap can set off a chain reaction whereever that boundary is. The boundary is still back pretty far to the west-northwest so at the moment I am not overly concerned. We will have to watch it carefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Yes sir--more often than you would think. The reason I stated them more strongly today is because todays parameters suggest the potential for more of a classic discrete-type supercell structure capable of producing tornadoes/damaging winds and large hail. With the severe weather season the mid-west has been having, do you think that will translate to here as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 whats the timing on these storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NEW YORKCITY METRO AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST. IN COLLABORATION WITHSPC...THERMODYNAMICS ARE HIGHLY SUGGESTIVE THAT A SEVERETHUNDERSTORM OR POSSIBLY A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED EARLY THISAFTERNOON FOR THIS AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I'm going to stick my neck out and say, mod risk coming with the next outlook. They might stay slight and go 30/30 and 10% though. Wouldn't be suprised to see a hatched area either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 I'm going to stick my neck out and say, mod risk coming with the next outlook. They might stay slight and go 30/30 and 10% though. Wouldn't be suprised to see a hatched area either. Doubt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 New outlook is a slight risk..5% tornado, 30% hail, 30% damaging wind. ..NORTHEAST STATES BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES...WITH A COUPLE OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OH/PA/NY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST NY INTO PA/WV...WHICH DEFINES THE WEST EDGE OF A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG FROM PARTS OF ME INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. MEANWHILE...FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT /50-80 KNOTS AT 500MB/ AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE FOR SEVERE STORMS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NY/PA. THESE STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...AND BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER STORMS WILL MAINTAIN A DISCRETE MODE...OR WILL ORGANIZE INTO A LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IF DISCRETE MODES CAN BE MAINTAINED...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS PRESENT FOR A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 0-3km EHI values are over 6 in portions of Northeast PA...certainly a bit concerning given the degree of instability and the EML cap in place likely helping to keep convective development discrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I have to say, I'm suprised. I really don't see how we don't win in a setup like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Impressive cape, but Long Island with the onshore flow will likely miss out once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1048 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NJ...SE NY...CT...MA...VT...NH...SW ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410... VALID 011626Z - 011730Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410 CONTINUES. A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NRN NJ NNEWD ACROSS SE NY INTO SRN AND CNTRL NEW ENGLAND. TORNADOES...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE FROM ERN PA NNEWD INTO VT WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN CNTRL NY AND NE PA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NEW YORK CITY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 45 KT ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND WLY 850 MB FLOW AROUND 25 KT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS AND LINE-SEGMENTS. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS. AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON...A TORNADO THREAT SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/01/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 They seem to be talking up tornados yet only went with a 5% prob. Frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Impressive cape, but Long Island with the onshore flow will likely miss out once again. Elevated instability axis is forecast to spread eastward tonight..so any updrafts that do develop are not simply going to die out..especially with west-southwest winds at the surface as far east as the city itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Wow. That's a splitting mini-supercell near Wilkes-Barre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Elevated instability axis is forecast to spread eastward tonight..so any updrafts that do develop are not simply going to die out..especially with west-southwest winds at the surface as far east as the city itself. earthlight seeing what i've seen so far with the maps and explanation of the ingredients coming together for todays severe weather outbreak, the tornadic possibility woudl most likely be for inland areas( ne nw jersey, hudson valley and ct.) and the high winds, damaging hail would likely effect the coastal areas more right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Well the CIN is almost completely gone and we now have 4000-6000 SBCAPE surging over NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1048 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NJ...SE NY...CT...MA...VT...NH...SW ME CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410... VALID 011626Z - 011730Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410 CONTINUES. A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NRN NJ NNEWD ACROSS SE NY INTO SRN AND CNTRL NEW ENGLAND. TORNADOES...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE FROM ERN PA NNEWD INTO VT WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN CNTRL NY AND NE PA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NEW YORK CITY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 45 KT ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND WLY 850 MB FLOW AROUND 25 KT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS AND LINE-SEGMENTS. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS. AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON...A TORNADO THREAT SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS. ..BROYLES.. 06/01/2011 Wonder if they will put up a red box? they mention the T word firmly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 earthlight seeing what i've seen so far with the maps and explanation of the ingredients coming together for todays severe weather outbreak, the tornadic possibility woudl most likely be for inland areas( ne nw jersey, hudson valley and ct.) and the high winds, damaging hail would likely effect the coastal areas more right? Correct..the best backing winds are in Northern NJ...NE PA...Eastern NY into Western SNE. It's here that the juxtaposition of very favorable thermodynamics and effective shear and low level turning may allow for some tornadoes with any discrete supercells that develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe T Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Wow how about Cape of 5000 to 6000 reaching NJ right now UNREAL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Wow how about Cape of 5000 to 6000 reaching NJ right now UNREAL! HRRR showed this last night: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Correct..the best backing winds are in Northern NJ...NE PA...Eastern NY into Western SNE. It's here that the juxtaposition of very favorable thermodynamics and effective shear and low level turning may allow for some tornadoes with any discrete supercells that develop. The n/s running valley areas might see some rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Classic supercell structure near Albany..rotation is still broad but tightening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Correct..the best backing winds are in Northern NJ...NE PA...Eastern NY into Western SNE. It's here that the juxtaposition of very favorable thermodynamics and effective shear and low level turning may allow for some tornadoes with any discrete supercells that develop. do you expect the nws to issue a tornado watch for the area shortl? from the mesoscale discussion you posted it sounds like there fairly confident in saying tornadic activity is probable today, to me issuing the tornado watch would be safer being that it covers the tornadic activity and the severe storms as well, thats my reason atleast, but what do i know lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Looks to me like those cells in NE PA are becoming better and better organized. Likely will pass right through the area during the next 1-3 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 do you expect the nws to issue a tornado watch for the area shortly? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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