nzucker Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 i dont see that. I guess we never really have a "significant tornado threat," but this seems to be about the closest possible. If the low pressure tracked further south, I'd be more concerned about tornadoes. Should I bring my container gardens into the garage on Wednesday, or is that overkill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Are you thinking this is a significant tornado threat? Nah man I haven't really given much hope to that, especially given its a cold frontal passage. Was more looking for a nice squall line with shear being more unidirectional...Of course that can still lead to your spinups along the leading edge..Now If we do see winds more southerly and we get some discrete development along a prefrontal trough, then perhaps it can get more interesting in that regard? We'll see man, but I'm satisfied to be tracking a legit severe threat. Also, I don't claim to be a severe weather expert as I'm still learning and my weather interest is based out of winter storms, but an EML potential does get me excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I guess we never really have a "significant tornado threat," but this seems to be about the closest possible. If the low pressure tracked further south, I'd be more concerned about tornadoes. Should I bring my container gardens into the garage on Wednesday, or is that overkill? ok heres the deal. We have a cold front moving thru with an EML. **IF**, we had a strong sfc Lo or frontal wave, moving by from say, OH to new england, dragging a CF thru the ara, then the helicity would be huge and i would say game on for TORs, at least a sig threat. We dont have that here. Sure, an iso TOR is possible, but under the situation i mentioned above, that would be absolutely ideal for TORs around here. We dont have that, so it will be hit or miss IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Yeah this really isn't much of a tornado threat, unless of course the sfc low was tracking a bit further south. I do think the potential does exist for a few isolated tornadoes in SNE though where there is much more directional shear in the lowest 3-4km where the low-level flow is backed more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Nah man I haven't really given much hope to that, especially given its a cold frontal passage. Was more looking for a nice squall line with shear being more unidirectional...Of course that can still lead to your spinups along the leading edge..Now If we do see winds more southerly and we get some discrete development along a prefrontal trough, then perhaps it can get more interesting in that regard? We'll see man, but I'm satisfied to be tracking a legit severe threat. Also, I don't claim to be a severe weather expert as I'm still learning and my weather interest is based out of winter storms, but an EML potential does get me excited Agree totally. A forced convective line is more likely on this setup . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Always good reason to be skeptical around here I'm certainly skeptical as well...at least when it comes to the potential for a widespread outbreak. I think we definitely will see severe wx on Wednesday it's just a question of how widespread of an event will it be? I'm also intrigued by the supercell potential, especially up this way b/c some of the hodos are quite impressive so if we see any supercells fire they could become interesting very quickly. The flow aloft is fairly unidirectional but the lowest 3-4km of the atmosphere exhibits a good deal of turning so we could see something where the storm mode early on is supercells with them quickly forming a line, or we see a line develop with supercells out ahead of it. I think it will also depend if it's the pre-frontal trough that's more active or the cold front. Lol this is very true. It wasn't too long ago (last June?) that we saw a moderate risk, 45% wind threat turn out a completeeeee bust. I recall that seemed to hold a much greater tornado potential than we are used to seeing as well, but yeah.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Lol this is very true. It wasn't too long ago (last June?) that we saw a moderate risk, 45% wind threat turn out a completeeeee bust. I recall that seemed to hold a much greater tornado potential than we are used to seeing as well, but yeah.. Yeah last June 6th...hell, they were even talking about the possibility of strong tornadoes...some thought we might even see a PDS Tornado Watch...or at least some discussed it. That day was SCREWED by ML lapse rates and I believe sfc winds/low-level winds veered some which mixed out dewpoints a bit and LCL's raised. We had morning crap and the latent heat really destroyed the lapse rates...they started off around 6-6.5 C/KM then ended up just over 5.5 C/KM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 ok heres the deal. We have a cold front moving thru with an EML. **IF**, we had a strong sfc Lo or frontal wave, moving by from say, OH to new england, dragging a CF thru the ara, then the helicity would be huge and i would say game on for TORs, at least a sig threat. We dont have that here. Sure, an iso TOR is possible, but under the situation i mentioned above, that would be absolutely ideal for TORs around here. We dont have that, so it will be hit or miss IMO. And then of course we'd have to deal with a southeast wind off the water at the surface around these parts...immensely difficult to get that legit tornado threat over here for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Yeah last June 6th...hell, they were even talking about the possibility of strong tornadoes...some thought we might even see a PDS Tornado Watch...or at least some discussed it. That day was SCREWED by ML lapse rates and I believe sfc winds/low-level winds veered some which mixed out dewpoints a bit and LCL's raised. We had morning crap and the latent heat really destroyed the lapse rates...they started off around 6-6.5 C/KM then ended up just over 5.5 C/KM Yup, remember that well. I definitely got burned pretty good on that one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 And then of course we'd have to deal with a southeast wind off the water at the surface around these parts...immensely difficult to get that legit tornado threat over here for sure. I thought winds were supposed to be SSW? That's what the 0z GFS shows as of 18z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Yup, remember that well. I definitely got burned pretty good on that one lol I saw a funnel cloud but didn't get a pic It actually turned out I also caught a funnel cloud the day before as well and never knew it until several months later. My friend and I went to Windsor Locks, CT both days...on the Saturday 6/5 event we actually watched the microburst come in...was sick stuff...we got video. My friend watched the video a few months later again and noticed something that looked like a funnel...or a developing one...I sent the video to someone here and he looked at it and said it did look like a developing funnel. The 6/6 was a huge letdown though...was so hoping to see great stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 i like the FROPA timing i have seen many events where the front was still in W PA at 21z and all we got was a dying squall line at 9 pm wednesday, it looks like the front is on our doorstep by 21z and passes around 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 i like the FROPA timing i have seen many events where the front was still in W PA at 21z and all we got was a dying squall line at 9 pm wednesday, it looks like the front is on our doorstep by 21z and passes around 0z Forky if the line makes it to the coast u think coastal jersey long island and conneticut could get into some intense severe weather tommorow afternoon? The way you explained it sounded like it would be intense still as it reached our area correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Classic moderate risk day with severe wind being the primary threat at 45% prob. 30% hail and 5% tornado risk. Should be a nice squall line that will advance SE from the Poconos and Upstate. The only thing I worry about is multi cell development out ahead of the main line. Sure we could get some nice severe weather in a discrete cluster but it could ruin the main show if that occurs. I don't like the fact that the both 00z high res models came in completely dry for us. I don't put too much stock in them but they did a pretty good job last week with keeping us for the most part dry even after the HRRR started showing good development over NJ which never verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 The only thing I worry about is multi cell development out ahead of the main line. Sure we could get some nice severe weather in a discrete cluster but it could ruin the main show if that occurs. This is what the EML is for...it prevents convection until the cape is maximized underneath the cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 This is what the EML is for...it prevents convection until the cape is maximized underneath the cap. Yep, I got that. I'm hoping that it verifies. We shall see. So hard to get everything in one basket in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 So far it still does look very good but Upton does have on valid concern that marine air could come into play and the winds will come from the south which is better than southeast but you want for LI and a coastal CT Southwest a good severe threat in that area. I still expect a cluster of thunderstorms with some strong to severe to hit most of the area hopefully maintaining their strength when they hit the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 This is a very high 12 hr prob for severe criteria thunderstorms...I think we'll see the 30% adjusted a bit southward in the next outlook and I wouldn't be surprised if some sig/hatching is added. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 when does the next outlook come out? This is a very high 12 hr prob for severe criteria thunderstorms...I think we'll see the 30% adjusted a bit southward in the next outlook and I wouldn't be surprised if some sig/hatching is added. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 The SPC SREF Supercell Probs look pretty nice. EDIT-Can't post images. Here are the links. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2011053109/SREF_prob_combined_supercell__f033.gif http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2011053109/SREF_prob_combined_supercell__f036.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 when does the next outlook come out? 1:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 This is a very high 12 hr prob for severe criteria thunderstorms...I think we'll see the 30% adjusted a bit southward in the next outlook and I wouldn't be surprised if some sig/hatching is added. Earthlight my biggest concern is me being on the coast and if these storms start getting intense and severe will the storms hold there strength as they reach the coastal areas (L.I., coastal jersey etc.) I've seen storms rock just inland but as soon as they reach the coast they just die and become a garden variety storm instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Earthlight my biggest concern is me being on the coast and if these storms start getting intense and severe will the storms hold there strength as they reach the coastal areas (L.I., coastal jersey etc.) I've seen storms rock just inland but as soon as they reach the coast they just die and become a garden variety storm instead The better chance of severe is over interior NJ and Upstate NY where a moderate risk will likely exist. With that being said the city and LI should remain slight risked with slightly lower probs. LI and severe just don't mix we'll together historically, everything needs to be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 Earthlight my biggest concern is me being on the coast and if these storms start getting intense and severe will the storms hold there strength as they reach the coastal areas (L.I., coastal jersey etc.) I've seen storms rock just inland but as soon as they reach the coast they just die and become a garden variety storm instead Tomorrow's severe chances are likely to get a bit closer to the coast than usual. There are a few reasons for this. For one--the shortwave trough is well to our northwest over Southeast Canada. The height falls and a weak mid level disturbance are helping to kick off the convection. This means we can have more of a westerly and southwesterly surface flow thanks to the mid level height orientation. If the trough were further south or more on top of us, the surface winds would back to a more south or southeast direction ahead of a stronger surface front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I agree that tomorrow is the first candidate for a moderate risk from western New England to eastern PA...including NYC... I love the veering profiles amongst the EML and 40 knot mid level flow with the nicely timed FROPA. Classic Northeast severe weather outbreak! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I agree that tomorrow is the first candidate for a moderate risk from western New England to eastern PA...including NYC... I love the veering profiles amongst the EML and 40 knot mid level flow with the nicely timed FROPA. Classic Northeast severe weather outbreak! If your on board, i'm excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike_D Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Looking over the latest data from the GFS...slower right movers (20-25kts) tomorrow will be the tornado producers. Takes full advantage of a deep layer of streamwise vorticity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 The thing that may potentially kill tomorrow south of New England may be the anticyclonic shear/general NVA with the orientation of the trough/ridge. A lot of areas may just stay capped, even with the prefrontal trough. This may not be a bad thing, because if the convection waits for the better winds to arrive and forcing, then it will likely be more severe. There is also the issue with the morning MCS potential and leftover cloud debris. However, with the first point, I think the general descent behind this feature will thin out the clouds and allow for heating. Some of these soundings are downright awesome, especially north of the area. Once something gets going in the Mid Atlantic, it will set off a chain reaction. So if something orographic happens with the prefrontal trough, that may be enough to form a cold pool that races to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 The thing that may potentially kill tomorrow south of New England may be the anticyclonic shear/general NVA with the orientation of the trough/ridge. A lot of areas may just stay capped, even with the prefrontal trough. This may not be a bad thing, because if the convection waits for the better winds to arrive and forcing, then it will likely be more severe. There is also the issue with the morning MCS potential and leftover cloud debris. However, with the first point, I think the general descent behind this feature will thin out the clouds and allow for heating. Some of these soundings are downright awesome, especially north of the area. Once something gets going in the Mid Atlantic, it will set off a chain reaction. So if something orographic happens with the prefrontal trough, that may be enough to form a cold pool that races to the coast. So what your saying is that away from the coastal areas severe weather is likely but near or on the coast there is still the possibility of this being a case where the storms die when they hit the marine air correct? I'm still trying to grasp the severe weather parameters for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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