Ellinwood Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Looking at today, all 3 of my hi-res go-to models (NMM, HRRR, LWX ARW) showing big storms popping up over the region mid-afternoon into the early evening. The NAM shows a somewhat more linear feature compared to the hi-res models coming through the area. Upper-level winds aren't that good, but directional shear (S/SSW at SFC and W aloft) and CAPE (1000-2000 J/kg SB) are in excellent form. Storms are expected to form, but may have a hard time getting organized due to the lack of supportive upper-level winds and marginal mid-level lapse rates. Most/all of the region east of the mountains could see some storm action today. SPC currently has a 2% risk for tornadoes in the region, but as I said in the main severe thread I wouldn't be surprised if it got upgraded to a 5% risk somewhere in the region today (while keeping wind/hail at 15% each). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlowerLowerDE Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Thanks for the heads up. With such a severe outbreak yesterday in Mo. I appreciate any info you share with us. Keep it coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 Latest SREF has come around to showing today as the greater potential for tornadoes (compared to tomorrow). SoPA/NoMD looking like a good chase target right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Latest SREF has come around to showing today as the greater potential for tornadoes (compared to tomorrow). SoPA/NoMD looking like a good chase target right now. what parts of NoMd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Looks like we are in the bull's eye for severe storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 what parts of NoMd? Ummmm... NoMD? A bit too hard to get more specific than that at this point. I would guess anywhere along and N of I-70 for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Ummmm... NoMD? A bit too hard to get more specific than that at this point. I would guess anywhere along and N of I-70 for the time being. Ah okay. I guess I could be considered NoMd now, hence why I asked. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 I like what I see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdwx Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Latest SREF has come around to showing today as the greater potential for tornadoes (compared to tomorrow). SoPA/NoMD looking like a good chase target right now. Today and tomorrow look to be very active.. Tomorrow's map.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 1300 spc day 1 puts 5% tor in pa. Hail remains same at 15%. Wind probs increased to 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 1300 spc day 1 puts 5% tor in pa. Hail remains same at 15%. Wind probs increased to 30% I was thinking they might up the wind probs... 5% TOR risk could/should be expanded into NoMD later today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 Ah okay. I guess I could be considered NoMd now, hence why I asked. Thanks True... though there's always a gray area to all "borders" of the forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 mostly agree with the north placement of the 5%... never know tho. 500/850 look is a bit nw of optimal for past tornado days around here. maybe we can tal end charley a tornado through d.c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 First Meso. of the day... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0887.html A WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTENSIFIES. A WW WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE HOUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 STW has been give. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0338.html Squiggles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 STW has been give. Pretty early watch issuance for time of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Updated LWX AFD also mentions potential secondary tornado threat due to 0-3 km helicity and veering low level winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 STW has been give. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0338.html Squiggles! Nice... I wasn't expecting one so early. When do you think things will get going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 Mid-level lapse rates not looking as impressive per latest NAM and RUC... storms could be low-topped. Despite this, low-level instability remains potent enough to get some TORs down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 Nice... I wasn't expecting one so early. When do you think things will get going? I could see the possibility of two rounds of storms... first round mid-afternoon with a second (stronger?) batch late afternoon into the early evening hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Thanss for the updates Ellinwood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 I could see the possibility of two rounds of storms... first round mid-afternoon with a second (stronger?) batch late afternoon into the early evening hours. Usually our second rounds (when we get them which is rare) are always weaker - first ones always work the atmos over too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 23, 2011 Author Share Posted May 23, 2011 Usually our second rounds (when we get them which is rare) are always weaker - first ones always work the atmos over too much I'm not expecting the first round to do too much... some showers and general boomers with maybe a stray severe report or two. Better forcing coming with the later stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 I could see the possibility of two rounds of storms... first round mid-afternoon with a second (stronger?) batch late afternoon into the early evening hours. I agree with this given the SRW over the depth of the lower toped updraft that I would expect, we may have a chance to at the very least partially clear out for several hours behind this first round. Obviously how much destabilization occurs remains to be seen, but I'm hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 So help me if my flight back into town gets delayed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 It has that nasty feel out there right now. Very sticky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Not sure I see two rounds. I think overall it's still kinda marginal but hopefully we get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 74/67 here now. Partly sunny. Looks like storms after 4 PM and they could really get going. Lots of severe reports upcoming today and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Cape already 1500-2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 23, 2011 Share Posted May 23, 2011 Hail upgraded to 30% in 1630 OTLK... was 15% in 1300 OTLK. Wind remains at 30%... TOR Probs are at 2% (the 5% that was in PA was removed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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