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Gorgeous Sonoran Heat Release signaled in the operational Euro

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Welp, it appears the NAM is going to fight against this heat at least excuse imaginable if/when extrapolating it's 60-84 before onward... Seems to be aligning the entire hemisphere about 500naut miles south of all global scale guidance, all fields from the Pacific across Canada and the U.S. - why that is is odd and I have no idea, but that variance leaves Sunday -Wed (probably) open to MCS and wavy boundary mucking up this picture....

We'll have to see if it realizes it's on Earth at some point over the next 2 days - or if it is on to something.

Otherwise, the ECM from 00z suggests near 90 regionally Monday, upper 90's on Tuesday (850mb at +22C in a well mixed BL!!!) and probably 90 on Wednesday out ahead of a dry cfropa....

Looks like the deterministic GFS and ECM are really gung-ho about retrograding the 40N mass field latitudes, which means taking the western trough west into the Pacific, displacing the thermal ridge W, and drilling a NW flow aloft through the NE by Thursday of next week. Could happen, but that could also be too fast. We'll see.

Nonetheless, shot at the season's first heat wave with at least one day of potentially excessive heat appearing more immenent for Mon-Wed; lest the NAM works out.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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euro looked a little more reasonable with those 850s on this run...more like 16 to 19C instead of 20 to 22C

Yeah it definitely backed a little bit from the volcano heat it was showing. Looks a lot more reasonable for late May.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Yeah it definitely backed a little bit from the volcano heat it was showing. Looks a lot more reasonable for late May.

It may be back in the run tonight - not sure it won't. It's handling of the top of that ridge is suspcious looking heading just beyond D4 -

Hopefully not though because I tested out my AC last night and it was making a funny noise like it ingested a bird - haha

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

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It may be back in the run tonight - not sure it won't. It's handling of the top of that ridge is suspcious looking heading just beyond D4 -

Hopefully not though because I tested out my AC last night and it was making a funny noise like it ingested a bird - haha

Time to clean the filter, John! :) I'm looking forward to the heat-- been waiting for it for some time! I hope the whole summer is full of heat lol.

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

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Detestable.

Well I'll hope you don't bake off like those of us near sea level lol. I remember back in July 1995, I was at a family get together in the Poconos the day LGA hit 103 (heat index was 130 lol), and in the Poconos it was only around 90 that day and we had a nice breeze (which probably became a downsloping monster by the time it hit the coastal plain lol.) My sister, who lives up there, doesn't even have any AC (she's at around 2000 ft above sea level) and doesn't need it. It's about 10 degrees cooler up there during the day but maybe like 20 degrees cooler at night-- even on the so-called hot, hazy and humid 3H nights-- so it's pretty much great sleeping weather all summer long..... you just open up the windows, no need for AC ever. I would think your elevation would help you keep the worst of the heat at bay too.

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

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Here in Frederick, MD, the death valley of the east coast, we don't cry over 96F.

Some how it's hotter and dryer here.

DC will be at 96/68 Frederick will be at 100/61

Heh last year you must've had like 80 90+ degree days and like 20 days of 100+ lol.

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

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I think it's in a bit of a microclimate. But it maybe a bit high also. Replacing it with the average of DCA and HGR would still result in 10 95+ days last year.

We had that here too-- which was a record for JFK-- 31/10/3 (31 ninety degree days, 10 95 degree days and 3 100 degree days.)

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Welp, sometimes you get the bear ... sometimes the "bare" gets you. It appears this will be successful afterall, just not in SNE. Currently heat advisories are flying around Detroit, as well as the Mid Atlantic for this, and in general throughout the OV and MA this is strong positive departure interval. Nuances in the exact orientation of the flow aloft (which could not be pin-pointed with accurracy a week out in time...) appears to be a limiting factor for realization here, however. We have a NW flow aloft, and combined with a S/W exiting NE of Maine is pretty text book for locking in a boundary - of sorts - in SW zones, all of which serves to shunt the heat southeast.

Currently hi res sat imagery shows fog banks slipping toward the SW under LI, so clearly back-dooring is near-by and or taking place, however strong or discerned that may be aside. It was 76F by 9:15am for a lot along and outside I-495. As the interior thermals kick in, this will likely draw the prone westward movement to a tizzy and get 15kts of ENE going into the coast; that should put the lid on heat potential in a real hurry when that happens. The CT River valley will be less impacted by that; I believe LGA's profile is similar up to almost HFD and they'll make the low 90s out that way.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Welp, sometimes you get the bear ... sometimes the "bare" gets you. It appears this will be successful afterall, just not in SNE. Currently heat advisories are flying around Detroit, as well as the Mid Atlantic for this, and in general throughout the OV and MA this is strong positive departure interval. Nuances in the exact orientation of the flow aloft (which could not be pin-pointed with accurracy a week out in time...) appears to be a limiting factor for realization here, however. We have a NW flow aloft, and combined with a S/W exiting NE of Maine is pretty text book for locking in a boundary - of sorts - in SW zones, all of which serves to shunt the heat southeast.

Currently hi res sat imagery shows fog banks slipping toward the SW under LI, so clearly back-dooring is near-by and or taking place, however strong or discerned that may be aside. It was 76F by 9:15am for a lot along and outside I-495. As the interior thermals kick in, this will likely draw the prone westward movement to a tizzy and get 15kts of ENE going into the coast; that should put the lid on heat potential in a real hurry when that happens. The CT River valley will be less impacted by that; I believe LGA's profile is similar up to almost HFD and they'll make the low 90s out that way.

It's tough this time of year with BD's always finding a way to moderate the lower atmosphere in SNE. Good thread though, as the heat release happened and clipped us for a couple of days. The Mid Atlantic now can bake away for the next 4 months. Good riddance. I'm enjoying the 74/49 I have right now.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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It's tough this time of year with BD's always finding a way to moderate the lower atmosphere in SNE. Good thread though, as the heat release happened and clipped us for a couple of days. The Mid Atlantic now can bake away for the next 4 months. Good riddance. I'm enjoying the 74/49 I have right now.

I was in route to VA Beach back in ...circa '97's summer to visit the sister and kids, and merely passed through the PHL-DCA corridor on I-95. The weather that week was ear marked by "normalcy" for all intents and purposes - nothing of heat related warn was going on. Yet, I pulled over for gas once and food a 2nd time a hundred miles later, and both times I thought that I was standing behind the ass-end of a dump truck. The urban sprawl and black top savanas of the MA in a July sun angle just comes with its own definition that isn't described by synoptics ;)

That said, we may get 90+ in here on Wednesday as that front squeezes the gradient and nabs some of it up ahead of the boundary.

After that, the nebulous extended... The NAO is progged to tank; normally, yay! However, the recent analysis shows that there is a strong negative bias that really unfolds and goes nutty by D10. That offers enough suggestion that the falling NAO may be over-zealous in the ensemble mean, and that something tamer and closer to neutral actually results (approximately). Anyway ... the operational ECMWF and GFS never really dismantle the neat node over here in N/A. They seem to really want that axis to be in OV - that sets us up precariously for being clipped by heat and thundery entries and exits.

Frankly, that would be a far more entertaining summer than clocking heat waves alone -

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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I was in route to VA Beach back in ...circa '97's summer to visit the sister and kids, and merely passed through the PHL-DCA corridor on I-95. The weather that week was ear marked by "normalcy" for all intents and purposes - nothing of heat related warn was going on. Yet, I pulled over for gas once and food a 2nd time a hundred miles later, and both times I thought that I was standing behind the ass-end of a dump truck. The urban sprawl and black top savanas of the MA in a July sun angle just comes with its own definition that isn't described by synoptics ;)

That said, we may get 90+ in here on Wednesday as that front squeezes the gradient and nabs some of it up ahead of the boundary.

After that, the nebulous extended... The NAO is progged to tank; normally, yay! However, the recent analysis shows that there is a strong negative bias that really unfolds and goes nutty by D10. That offers enough suggestion that the falling NAO may be over-zealous in the ensemble mean, and that something tamer and closer to neutral actually results (approximately). Anyway ... the operational ECMWF and GFS never really dismantle the neat node over here in N/A. They seem to really want that axis to be in OV - that sets us up precariously for being clipped by heat and thundery entries and exits.

Frankly, that would be a far more entertaining summer than clocking heat waves alone -

I noticed that as well. A nice theta-e burst coming into the OH valley and pretty close to SNE from time to time. Some of that might make it in here, but yeah maybe we get some sort of complex or two rolling through, if the instability burst isn't shunted to our sw.

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