CT Rain Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Severe threat on Wednesday. If things slow down a bit and we get enough instability we could be in decent shape for some storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Lots of se-s flow so probably favored areas like ctrl and wrn mass down to HFD or so, only have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 Lots of se-s flow so probably favored areas like ctrl and wrn mass down to HFD or so, only have a shot. Yeah definitely would be a western New England/eastern NY kind of deal if things slowed down. Probably not going to pan out but it's about the only thing of interest next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 5-10 TOR's seems reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 5-10 TOR's seems reasonable But mostly EF1's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Ryan...I missed the broadcast...whay do you have for temps the next 7 days at BDL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 1, 2011 Author Share Posted May 1, 2011 Ryan...I missed the broadcast...whay do you have for temps the next 7 days at BDL? Mon 65 Tue 67 Wed 63 Thu 65 Fri 64 Sat 65 Sun 65 These could be low... though... I was reluctant to bump up too high since I already went much higher than I had yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Wiz getting his TIV ready for Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Bank on it b/c I have baseball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Looks like one of those cold pool setups...dewpoints will be rather low but given how cold temps are aloft all we will need is to just get some decent surface heating and that could create just enough instability to get things rolling...doesn't appear lift will be an issue and jet dynamics will be there. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 I think it doesn't get out of the 50s on Thu and Fri at BDL with the cutoff low swirling to the E/NE. (Note - I'm only considering the daytime high for Thu. It could be a day where the midnight temp. is the actual high). Wed, I agree you could be too low. Mon 65 Tue 67 Wed 63 Thu 65 Fri 64 Sat 65 Sun 65 These could be low... though... I was reluctant to bump up too high since I already went much higher than I had yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 BOX still mentions the possibility of snow for Pete in the longer range: *THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... DEEPENING LOW NEARLY STACKING UPON ITSELF RESULTS IN OCCLUSION OF THE SFC LOW INTO ERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE GULF OF ME. PREV MDL SOLNS AS OF YESTERDAY ADVERTISED A LINGERING OCCLUSION OVER MUCH OF THE NERN CONUS...BUT THE LATEST SOLNS OF A MORE EWD PROGRESSION ALLOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES TO BUILD OVER THE FCST RGN INTO THE END OF THE PD. WILL SEE A DEFORMATION AXIS IN ASSOC WITH A TROWAL STRUCTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW LEND TO CONTINUED PRECIP CHCS FOR THE N/E FCST RGNS. COULD SEE SOME WET SNOWS DURING THE MORNING PERIOD FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Tip is about to make a post about he thinks we don't warm sector..and that the next 15-20 days folks will be sucking barells of magnums and 22's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Perhaps both, so instead of "instead" - but severe would likely be muted for folks E of a RUT-LGA line, with a neutral negative tilt and sfc PP retreating directly E of even ENE. That's a quasi-warm sector synoptically at best, and one fairly heavily modulated by marine. Jet mechanics would off-set some, areed, but the book closes real fast because closure takes place as those arrive, and the lower tropospheric response becomes a backed(ing) flow at that point. The Euro is indicating both seasons to some degree, with still some prospect for elevation snows for particularly central and N-NW New England later on after the baroclinic axis translates ENE and the mid levels then close. Dynamics then cool the column and wrap around moisture - even upsloping up N would easily crown summits and down to 2,000' els should that take place. The Canadian from 00z 05/02 hits this even harder. ...Just noted the 12Z NAM trying to whiten the Monadnocks. The placement of the mid lvl vortex as depicted in the mean of the GFS/Euro is NE of last week's lat/lon. This may be a deterministic response to the significant negative NAO bias of the ensemble cluster... Last week's placement would have made sense in having that teleconnector some -2SD or deeper. One can really see said negative bias here: http://www.cpc.ncep....index_ensm.html That's over -1SD error by D10!. That immediately argues for less impact locally as a correction. That said, this time of year is really hard to use these outright - and I don't because of that. I leave plenty of room for "anomalies inside anomalies", so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Wow, the NAM is THAT close to brining accumulating potential below a 1,000' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Perhaps both, so instead of "instead" - but severe would likely be muted for folks E of a RUT-LGA line, with a neutral negative tilt and sfc PP retreating directly E of even ENE. That's a quasi-warm sector synoptically at best, and one fairly heavily modulated by marine. Jet mechanics would off-set some, areed, but the book closes real fast because closure takes place as those arrive, and the lower tropospheric response becomes a backed(ing) flow at that point. The Euro is indicating both seasons to some degree, with still some prospect for elevation snows for particularly central and N-NW New England later on after the baroclinic axis translates ENE and the mid levels then close. Dynamics then cool the column and wrap around moisture - even upsloping up N would easily crown summits and down to 2,000' els should that take place. The Canadian from 00z 05/02 hits this even harder. ...Just noted the 12Z NAM trying to whiten the Monadnocks. The placement of the mid lvl vortex as depicted in the mean of the GFS/Euro is NE of last week's lat/lon. This may be a deterministic response to the significant negative NAO bias of the ensemble cluster... Last week's placement would have made sense in having that teleconnector some -2SD or deeper. One can really see said negative bias here: http://www.cpc.ncep....index_ensm.html That's over -1SD error by D10!. That immediately argues for less impact locally as a correction. That said, this time of year is really hard to use these outright - and I don't because of that. I leave plenty of room for "anomalies inside anomalies", so to speak. Yes on the euro, that second vortmax rounds the bend and really amplifies and closes off H5. Trowal signature is there, but verbatim maybe some flurries or a period of light snow above 1000 and likely 1500' or so, esp in NNE. As far as the long range goes...EC ensembles build a strong -NAO in the Davis Straits and then retrograde this into srn Canada. 2 months earlier, and we would be in jubilation. Nevertheless, troughing develops over the East and perhaps a few waves of low pressre ride south of SNE. Now I suppose we can hope the trough is sharp enough to promote something like Wednesday and the low rides to our west...but I'm certainly not thrilled by the pattern....especially since it takes very little effort to keep erly flow over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Yes on the euro, that second vortmax rounds the bend and really amplifies and closes off H5. Trowal signature is there, but verbatim maybe some flurries or a period of light snow above 1000 and likely 1500' or so, esp in NNE. As far as the long range goes...EC ensembles build a strong -NAO in the Davis Straits and then retrograde this into srn Canada. 2 months earlier, and we would be in jubilation. Nevertheless, troughing develops over the East and perhaps a few waves of low pressre ride south of SNE. Now I suppose we can hope the trough is sharp enough to promote something like Wednesday and the low rides to our west...but I'm certainly not thrilled by the pattern....especially since it takes very little effort to keep erly flow over us. It's May thouh..and things just can't/won't be that bad. I envision alot of sunny, mild days like yesterday with 60's to near 70..interspersed with a cool, rainy day here and there. Plus 2 days ago Wed event looked cold and rainy. Now it's humid and showery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 It's May thouh..and things just can't/won't be that bad. I envision alot of sunny, mild days like yesterday with 60's to near 70..interspersed with a cool, rainy day here and there. Plus 2 days ago Wed event looked cold and rainy. Now it's humid and showery We've had plenty of crappy May's, especially ORH hills on east. It could easily happen, but I'm not suggesting it's a lock...just something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 We've had plenty of crappy May's, especially ORH hills on east. It could easily happen, but I'm not suggesting it's a lock...just something to keep an eye on. May 2005 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 May 2005 redux? LOL, lets hope not. Hopefully we can keep any disasters at a minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 LOL, lets hope not. Hopefully we can keep any disasters at a minimum. If May is average or a bit above, I'll be happy. I just don't want a huge torch in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 It's May thouh..and things just can't/won't be that bad. I envision alot of sunny, mild days like yesterday with 60's to near 70..interspersed with a cool, rainy day here and there. Plus 2 days ago Wed event looked cold and rainy. Now it's humid and showery it's funny i was just thinking when i shot out for lunch, in blazing hot sun at 70F that if we get through the next 2 to 3 weeks with a few more of these, it won't have been all that bad... But, 2005 is in there... let's hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 If May is average or a bit above, I'll be happy. I just don't want a huge torch in the summer. Give me 2009 and tell 2010 to rot in Hades Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 If May is average or a bit above, I'll be happy. I just don't want a huge torch in the summer. lol... what was your hottest temp last summer? 93? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 lol... what was your hottest temp last summer? 93? 96...hottest since the 1970s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 96...hottest since the 1970s. so it's basically impossible for your area to get a torch... ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 Yes on the euro, that second vortmax rounds the bend and really amplifies and closes off H5. Trowal signature is there, but verbatim maybe some flurries or a period of light snow above 1000 and likely 1500' or so, esp in NNE. As far as the long range goes...EC ensembles build a strong -NAO in the Davis Straits and then retrograde this into srn Canada. 2 months earlier, and we would be in jubilation. Nevertheless, troughing develops over the East and perhaps a few waves of low pressre ride south of SNE. Now I suppose we can hope the trough is sharp enough to promote something like Wednesday and the low rides to our west...but I'm certainly not thrilled by the pattern....especially since it takes very little effort to keep erly flow over us. Interesting about the Euro ensembles.. Do they do any error tracking?? the current GFS suite has an on going negative bias at D4 that only balloons to -1SD by D10... this bias has persisted for a month now, too. It's enough to presume any such GFS mean for such behavior could quite plausibly be overdone. not sure on the Euro though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 so it's basically impossible for your area to get a torch... ever If you are talking about 100F...then yes, its extremely difficult. A bit lower down can achieve it, but the current airport site rarely breaks 95F. They did reach 99F once in 1952. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 A couple of cool rainy days..a couple of mild sunny days ...no torches..no below normals except on the rainy days. Sounds like typical spring to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 2, 2011 Share Posted May 2, 2011 If you are talking about 100F...then yes, its extremely difficult. A bit lower down can achieve it, but the current airport site rarely breaks 95F. They did reach 99F once in 1952. What were they in that August heat of 1977? that was 104F routinely around the area on at least one afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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