Thundersnow12 Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 getting lost in all the tornado outbreak stuff but CoD left for their first trip today and will be chasing tomorrow so I will be forecasting/nowcasting for them. northeast TX into southwest AR could be a nice little sleeper day if something can remain discrete and stay out ahead of the front. SREF has been slowly increasing threat for tomorrow and now popping a 50.. It does look like a down period for awhile after these few days as the front heads into the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 I think everyone, including me, is burned out but this event is lookin a little better each run,,may have to include monday now too DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2011 VALID 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF N TX AND THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LWR OH/LWR MS VLYS... ..SYNOPSIS ND UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY ENE INTO NRN MN THIS PERIOD AS TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE GRT BASIN EVOLVES INTO A SEPARATE CLOSED SYSTEM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE SW TO WSW MID/UPR LVL FLOW FROM THE SRN PLNS AND OZARKS INTO THE LWR OH VLY. AT LWR LVLS...SFC LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY NE INTO WRN ONT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CONTINUES STEADILY S/SSE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS...AND E ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS. THE SRN PART OF THE BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL DECELERATE AS IT BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM S CNTRL TX THROUGH THE ARKLATEX INTO W TN BY 12Z SUN. THE FRONT SHOULD SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY SVR TSTMS THIS PERIOD. ..ARKLATEX TO LWR MS/LWR OH VLYS SFC OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE /PW UP TO 1.25 INCHES/ SPREADING N/NE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF TX ATTM. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND PARTS OF THE LWR MS VLY THROUGH EARLY SUN...AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE...EML CAP AND WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD PROHIBIT SFC-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER SLIGHT RISK AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. STORMS SHOULD...HOWEVER...FORM BY LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE FROM NE TX INTO CNTRL AR AS FRONT ENCOUNTERS MOISTURE RETURN AND SFC HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES THE REGION. DEVELOPMENT ALSO MAY BE FOSTERED BY APPROACH OF WEAK DISTURBANCE NOW NEARING THE TX BIG BEND /PER WV IMAGERY/. WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD SPREAD NEWD INTO SE MO AND WRN KY/TN...WHILE REGENERATIVE ACTIVITY PERSISTS OVER THE ARKLATEX. AMPLE /2500-3000 J PER KG/ SBCAPE WILL BE PRESENT FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVE GIVEN 50-60 KT WSWLY MID LVL FLOW ATOP 35-40 KT SSWLY LLJ. THE STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS/LINES POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS NEWD INTO SE MO/WRN KY AND WRN TN. THE POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY FROM NE TX ENEWD INTO ERN AR FROM EARLY TO MID EVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 The 1630Z outlook from SPC seems worded kind of ominously for only a 5% tornado outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 SREF has been slowly increasing threat for tomorrow and now popping a 50.. 9z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 Uploaded 17Z Severe Weather Analysis, currently showing Central to Southern AR to NE-E TX as the highest threat for severe weather. Little Rock to Dequeen AR showing the highest instability. Overall areas is showing surface CAPE around 1700 j/kg, LI's are around -6. Potential is there to see winds up to 60 knots and hail up to 1.9" in diameter. Analysis uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 15Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 Sig tor up to 5 presently in ne TX with RUC increasing the threat into south central AR during the evening. Meso currently out and watch coming shortly from SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 Initiation occurring in the DFW metro area...it is not clutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 Tornado watch issued--- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 612 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... DALLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS... * UNTIL 715 PM CDT * AT 611 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR COCKRELL HILL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... DOWNTOWN DALLAS AROUND 635 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 On GR3 the storm has a 2 inch hail marker and is up to 50K high---located just to the Southeast of downtown Dallas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 Per RUC, the wind fields below about 600mb are very anemic where that severe storm is near Dallas. Wind fields increase dramatically east of there where the tornado watch is. Will be interesting to see what happens as those storms move/develp further eastward where low level shear is considerably better. RUC forecast sounding for the Dallas area where the one severe storm is now. Note the weak winds below H6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 Just noticed there's a new cell south of Sulphur Springs. That one is in a better low level sheared environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 The area of extreme NE Texas, extreme SE Oklahoma and SW Arkansas is sort of 'no mans land' when it comes to NWS radars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted April 30, 2011 Share Posted April 30, 2011 Second watch issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 First Tornado Warning.... BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 703 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WOOD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MINEOLA... * UNTIL 745 PM CDT * AT 703 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO ABOUT 5 MILES WEST OF HAINESVILLE...OR 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF MINEOLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO QUITMAN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Just noticed there's a new cell south of Sulphur Springs. That one is in a better low level sheared environment. Good Call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Yeah, that cell is about to move into a small area of SigTor 5; looks like it's developing a hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Yeah, that cell is about to move into a small area of SigTor 5; looks like it's developing a hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 There's definitely a hook echo signature on that cell. This is the last thing the south needs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Tornado watch box up for Arkansas now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 826 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CAMP COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PITTSBURG...LEESBURG... SOUTHWESTERN MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS... SOUTHEASTERN TITUS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS... NORTHERN UPSHUR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS... * UNTIL 915 PM CDT * AT 825 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTH OF LEESBURG...OR JUST NORTHWEST OF BETTIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CEDAR SPRINGS AND CASON... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 826 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CAMP COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PITTSBURG...LEESBURG... SOUTHWESTERN MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS... SOUTHEASTERN TITUS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS... NORTHERN UPSHUR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS... * UNTIL 915 PM CDT * AT 825 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 8 MILES SOUTH OF LEESBURG...OR JUST NORTHWEST OF BETTIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Looks like the storm finished cycling and is in the process of trying to produce. May take another cycle but this one could get the job done. It's just about to move into a much better environment. Right now it's on the western edge of the better low level wind shear. The combination of the LLJ about to ramp up, and this storm moving east into it should make it go pretty crazy over the next few hours. Some pretty nice theta-e feeding into this thing as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 Here's the latest RUC forecast sounding for about where the northeast Texas cell is now. In a pretty decent environment now, so it should produce shortly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 927 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0925 PM TORNADO HUGHES SPRINGS 33.00N 94.63W 04/30/2011 CASS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT STATE TROOPER REPORTS TORNADO ON THE GROUND AND GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 lolwut THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING FROM 445 AM UNTIL NOON CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.7 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 lolwut THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING FROM 445 AM UNTIL NOON CDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.7 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. Typo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 1, 2011 Share Posted May 1, 2011 We're speeding through TN trying to get to any action later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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